Olympic Basketball 8/12 - 8/13 (Part 2)
Here’s Part 2 covering Saturday’s games. Some better games to target here.
Brazil vs Argentina (-1.5) o/u 158.5
Lithuania vs Spain (-2.5) o/u 151.5
Nigeria vs Croatia (-11.5) o/u 160.5
Some good match-ups here. Hopefully we won’t have any surprises like earlier when Andrew Bogut did not play for Australia. He was over 60% owned in the $3 GPP. Luckily for me, I faded him in the only lineup I made because I thought Baynes was the better play based on price.
Brazil vs Argentina
With a 158.5 total and Argentina only favored by 1.5, this looks to be a good game to target.
Brazil sits at 1-2 and are coming off of an 80-76 loss to Croatia. Brazil needs to win in order to keep their hopes of moving on alive.
Marcelo Huertas – PG – $4900
I like Huertas because of his price. Under-priced guys, such as Kalnietas and Maciulis, finally got a good price bump making them more difficult to fit in a line-up. Huertas is nicely priced at $4900 and I think he will be a good value on this slate. He had 9 assists last game and scored 10 points. If he does something similar to that, grabs a few rebounds and a steal or two, Huertas will be big, and I feel he can do just that in this match-up.
Augusto Lima – C – $2800
How is this guy still $2800? Over 3 games he’s averaged 19 dk points in about 23 minutes per game. I feel like he has good chance to better those numbers in this match-up in a game Brazil really needs to win. He’s cheap and lets you pay up for some other guys at other positions. I like Lima a lot.
Leonardo Barbosa – SG – $6500 & Nene Hilario – C – $6200
I think both of those guys make for good GPP plays. Barbosa can put up big scoring numbers and pick up a few peripheral stats. They’ll need him if they want to keep this game close. I don’t really like Nene’s price. If I’m paying up for a center, I’ll probably go all the way up to Pau in game Spain needs to win.
At 2-1 and coming off of a tough loss to Lithuania, Argentina looks to pick up a win to try and hang on to that #2 spot in Group B.
Luis Scola – PF – $8200
Big price bump for Scola as he is now the second highest priced PF on the slate behind Carmelo Anthony. This is a really good match-up for Scola and I think you can pay this price for him. Saric lit up the Brazilian defense for 43 dk points and now Scola gets the same match-up. In a must-win game for both teams and in a game that may stay close, I like Scola a lot. Now that Draftkings has risen the price on a lot of these players, hopefully we can start getting some better plays at lower ownerships.
Manu Ginobili – SG – $7100
A little too expensive for me as he hasn’t had a game yet that’s paid off his salary. This is a big game for Argentina, so I could see Ginobili having a good game making him a fine GPP play though I’ll likely look elsewhere.
Facundo Campazzo – PG – $6300
I liked Campazzo a lot when he was only $5000. He’s started the last two games but has yet to reach 30 minutes in a game. If I’m paying this much for a PG, I’ll spend $600 more for Kalnietas.
Lithuania vs Spain
This will be a good game to watch. Spain is in must win mode and Lithuania sits at 3-0. The spread is Spain -2.5 with a total at 151.5. I like players on both sides.
Mantas Kalnietas – PG – $6900
They have finally raised his price. It will be interesting to see what his ownership is after a significant price bump. I like him once again here and he should be in line for another 30+ dk point performance. I’ll have Kalnietas for sure in my cash games, but I do think there is merit in fading him in GPPs as I think he will still have decent ownership at that price.
Jonas Maciulis – SF – $5000
Same thing here with Maciulis. His price has risen to $5000 but I still like him here. I’ll be approaching him the same way as Kalnietas. I’ll have Maciulis in cash but will fade him in some GPP lineups.
Renaldas Seibutis – SG – $4500
Seibutis really disappointed last game as he only scored 12.75 dk points. Foul trouble really hurt him and he was on the court for only 16 minutes. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should be in line for 25-30 minutes and should be back to producing dk points in the low to mid-20s. I don’t mind him as a play here, but I may look elsewhere.
Jonas Valanciunas – C – $7700
The commentator in the game last night pronounced his name Val-An-See-Ew-Nes when it’s obviously Val-An-CHOO-Nes, but that wasn’t the only thing that annoyed me. What’s really annoyed me is how he has been playing in this tournament. Through 3 games he’s averaged 17.5 dk points in about 23 minutes per game. He hasn’t done much on the floor and I just can’t trust him at that price. I’ll pass on Valanciunas until they lower his price or I see something positive from him
Domantas Sabonis – PF – $4800 & Paulius Jankunas – PF – $4600
I’m writing these two up again for the same reasons as last time. Sabonis had a nice game last time out with 23.5 dk points while Jankunas scored 13. They are both GPP options with the same upside, but picking the right one will be the challenge.
At 1-2, Spain is in must-win mode. This is a tough match-up and I expect them to come out ready to play.
Pau Gasol – C – $9700
He’s the most expensive player on the slate and with all of the price bumps on other players, it will be tough to fit him in. That being said, I think you need to find a way to get him in your lineup. Spain has to win this game and they are going to depend on Pau to lead them. I can see 30+ minutes from Pau and a huge fantasy outing here. There’s a good possibility he will be the highest scoring player on the slate.
Nikola Mirotic – PF – $7600
After a solid first game, Mirotic has had two disappointing games in a row. He’s priced above some other PFs that I like a little bit more but I think he makes for a great GPP play based on game implications. If Spain wins this game, Mirotic and Pau will likely both have big games.
Rudy Fernandez – SF – $5200
I don’t really trust Fernandez, but his price has dropped some and he should get over 30 minutes. Maciulis comes in at $200 cheaper making Fernandez a very low-owned GPP play with just as much upside.
PGs – I’ll stay away from Rubio and Sergio Rodriguez. There are much better plays at similar price points and we just don’t know what either of them will do.
Nigeria vs Croatia
Croatia is favored by 11.5 and the total sits at 160.5
At 0-3, Nigeria will be playing as spoilers for their final 2 games as they have no chance at advancing. No team wants to lose every game and Nigeria has played surprisingly well in their last 2 games. I like some players on Nigeria’s side.
Ike Diogu – PF – $8000
Diogu had a down game last time out. What was surprising is that he only took 4 shots compared to his double-digit attempts in his first 2 games. Croatia is a fast paced team and this game could possibly stay close. I think Diogu gets back to his double-digit shot attempts, gets a few steals, and picks up his second double-double of the tournament. He should have lower-ownership because of recency bias and an expensive price tag.
Chamberlin Oguchi – SG – $6300
Oguchi finally showed he can play by putting up 24 points, grabbing 3 rebounds, and handing out 4 assists along with 2 steals all good for 39.75 dk points. Now that we have seen his upside, Oguchi makes for a solid GPP play.
Josh Akognon – PG – $2300
GPP play only. Akognon has seen his minutes rise from 5 in the first game, to 15 in the second game, and to 21 in their last game. He takes a lot of 3s when he is on the floor and he is not afraid to shoot. Last game out he shot 4/10 from the field, 3/8 from three and put up 25.25 dk points. If Akognon gets close to 20 minutes again and gets close to the same amount of shots, I like him a lot. At $2300 I’ll take a chance on him in a GPP lineup as he lets me get a lot of higher-priced guys at some other positions. Michael Umeh at $3100 is another GPP play. I like Akognon more based on price, but Umeh has upside as well if his shot is falling.
At 2-1, Croatia needs to play for a win as they can still potentially win Group B.
Bojan Bogdanovic – SG – $8400
Another expensive guy that has earned his price tag. Bogdanovic went off last game for 44.5 dk points. That’s the upside he brings to the table. He’s gotten at least 30 dk points in every game so far and with this potentially being a fast-paced game, I think he is line for another one. If you can fit him in your cash game lineup I would as he has the safest floor of anyone at the position and his upside is what could help you win a GPP.
Dario Saric – PF – $7000
Saric is a triple-double threat every time he takes the floor. After a down game in their first game against Spain, Saric has really turned it around. If you can recall, Saric had a huge block on Pau Gasol as time expired that won them the game. Since then Saric has been playing extremely well. This is another good match-up for Saric and I think he’s in line for another big performance. I think he is safe for cash games and GPPs.
Mario Hezonja – SF – $5500 & Luka Babic – SF – $2100
These are 2 GPP plays that I’ll mention. Hezonja has the decent upside, but has been disappointing in 2 out of 3 games. At $5500 I don’t like him all that much, but I think he deserves a mention as I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a solid game. One guy that I do like is Luka Babic. Most people are going to lock in Jonas Maciulis at SF and move on. Maciulis could go out and have a similar game as last time and score you less than 20 dk points. I’ll take a chance on that happening in a GPP lineup and play a guy that is almost minimum salary and has 20+ dk point upside. Now don’t go locking this guy into your cash games, but Babic has played 14, 22, and 15 minutes in their 1st 3 games and has averaged 16.8 dk points. If he can get 15-20 minutes again in this game, I think he has a good shot at exceeding his dk average. I’ll gladly take a shot on him in a GPP.
Thanks for reading guys! Good luck!