Olympic Basketball 8/14
We have arrived to the last 2 days of group play. Draftkings has decided not to combine the 2 days into a big 5 game slate, so I will focus on Sunday’s games only. Here’s how Group A looks after 4 games.
As long as there are no upsets, Group A should finish in the same order as above. Here are the games for today.
France vs USA (-18.5) o/u 181.5
Venezuela vs Australia (-21) o/u 151
China vs Serbia (-23.5) o/u 160.5
With this being the last game of group play for these teams and with the top 4 seeds basically locked up, we need to be careful with who we roster. There should be a lot of good value plays today because starters on certain teams may see less minutes.
France vs USA
Before the tournament, France was the team that many thought would have the best shot to upset team USA. This is the lowest spread in a USA game so far and USA’s last 2 games have been very close. France will come to play in this one and I think you’ll want to have some guys from both sides.
Tony Parker – PG – $6700
Parker has yet to really give us a game where he crushes value, but I just having a feeling that he’ll be a little more motivated in this game. I think Parker gets closer to 30 minutes as France would love to be the team that beats USA. With the 2 Aussie PGs likely getting less minutes, I think Parker may be one of the safest higher priced point guards.
Nando De Colo – SG – $6500
De Colo is the 2nd highest priced shooting guard on the slate, and similar to Parker, I just having a feeling that he’ll be motivated to play in this game. I’ll likely have both of these guys in my lineups.
Boris Diaw – PF – $7000 & Rudy Gobert – C – $5900
I like both of these guys as well. USA has not played great defense against big guys as Nikola Jokic, Gregory Echenique, Yi Jianlian, and Andrew Bogut all put up solid numbers in their games against USA. I’m not sure how many guys from France I’ll want to have on my teams as I don’t want to be overexposed in case this game does blow out, but I do think having 2 or 3 could be a good way to go. I’ll have at least one game stack of this game.
Looking to go undefeated in group play, USA faces one of their toughest opponents in France. As I mentioned, I think France gets up for this one and hopefully keeps this game close. USA has been allowing big points to other teams and this game has the highest total by 21 points. If this game does stay close, starters for both sides will play more minutes and not having a part of both sides on your teams could really hurt you in GPPs.
Kevin Durant – SF – $9400
After a huge 1st game, Durant has calmed it down a bit as he’s averaged about 25 dk points over his last 3 games. In this game, Durant has the potential to put up big numbers, especially if this game stays close. However, he may not make it onto many of my teams with how I’m leaning to construct my rosters. I think he’s safe for 25-30 dk points with obvious 40+ upside, but I think there are some cheaper guys that have the potential to get me 25-30 in their match-ups as well. I likely save some $ at the SF position and spend up at some other ones.
Kyrie Irving – PG – $7300
I haven’t targeted Kyrie so far, but I don’t really mind targeting him here. This game should be fast-paced and I’m really hoping it stays close. This should fit Irving’s playstyle perfectly. He’s one of the USA guys I’ll likely have on most of my teams.
Paul George – SF – $7700
With Klay Thompson struggling to find his shot, Paul George has started their last 2 games. I like him for the discount off of Durant. I read an article about George calling out the whole USA squad about being too individualistic and that they are not playing “team basketball.” After those 2 close games, USA needs to figure something before heading into the knockout round. I like the fact that George has called out his teammates. It shows how important this is to him and that he is serious about being there. For those reasons, I’m willing to take a shot on him having a good game here.
Carmelo Anthony – PF – $8400
Carmelo is definitely one of the guys George has called out. Though he has been putting up decent numbers and has had a huge 51 dk point performance, his defense is part of the reason USA has had these close games in the first place. Maybe he comes out more serious today and plays a better all-around game. I don’t mind him, but I’ll likely pay $400 more for Yi Jianlian.
Venezuela vs Australia
In order to move on to the knockout round, Venezuela needs a win here and for China to up-set Serbia. Those are two things are very unlikely to happen, but good news for Venezuela, Australia is likely going to give their starters limited minutes.
Nestor Colmenares – PF – $4600
I don’t know how long it’s going to take the Venezuelan coach to realize that Colmenares is their best player. If you have watched the games, you’ve probably noticed how much better their offense flows when Colmenares is on the court. The last 2 games they started running the offense through him as they’d give him the ball from the free throw line and he’d make a pass from there. This has helped him earn a few extra assists and he’s even had some open opportunities from 3, though he has yet to make one. Venezuela was blown out last game which kept Colmenares’ minutes at only 17. With Australia possibly letting starters play limited minutes, I really like Colmenares at $4600 as they will need him if they want to pull off the upset.
Gregory Vargas – PG – $5100 & Jose Vargas – SG – $4500
I can’t trust either of these guys enough for my cash games. Just when I thought Gregory was starting to be a “safe” play, he goes out and gives us 4 dk points. If they keep this game close, one of these guys will likely have a decent game, I’ll just be looking for value plays elsewhere.
Gregory Echenique – C – $4200
He had a good outing against USA but has been pretty mediocre in the others. The 15-20 dk points he was getting when he was only $3000 paid off his salary then, but now that he’s $4200, we need a little more from him. He’s still cheap enough to take a chance on him and this match-up against the Aussie’s bench is a an exploitable one.
Andrew Bogut was in street clothes and did not play last game without any acknowledgement beforehand. Mills and Dellavedova also played much less minutes and they are now way over-priced considering they may play limited minutes. We saw Some of Australia’s bench players have a huge game last time out and I think we can look at them again in this match-up.
Cameron Bairstow – PF – $3500
Of the bench players, Bairstow played the most, logging 19 minutes, scoring 17 points and grabbing 9 rebounds, all good for 30.25 dk points. With this setting up to be a similar style game, I could see Bairstow getting minutes into the 20s. We likely won’t know what Australia’s starting lineup will be and I won’t go as far as saying Bairstow could start, but with Australia basically locked into the 2nd seed, he should be one of the first guys off of the bench and I think he gets solid minutes in this one.
David Andersen – PF – $5100
This was a guy that people targeted in Australia’s first game because they though Bogut would be limited. That wasn’t the case as Bogut has looked good when he’s on the court, thus limiting Andersen’s minutes. With Bogut potentially sitting this one out again, Andersen should be back into the starting lineup and could be in line for big minutes. I like his price at $5100 in this match-up.
Aron Baynes – C – $4800
Despite blowing out China, Bayne’s still logged 26 minutes, his most so far in the tournament. I’m not entirely sure how to attack him here as he could potentially play limited minutes or he could come out and play similar minutes to his last game considering that he is Australia’s only other center. I’ll have him in a few lineups just in case. I may be completely wrong in thinking about this, but for some reason I just feel hesitant to roster him.
Joe Ingles – SF – $5800 – Ryan Broekhoff – SF – $3400 – Brock Motum – PF – $2800
These 3 guys are GPP plays for me. Ingles should start but he’s in the same boat as Bayne’s for me. Broekhoff and Motum both saw a lot more run last game and could be in line for similar minutes here. Of all the value guys on Australia, Bairstow is my favorite as he has had the most consistent minutes throughout all of their games.
China vs Serbia
Serbia is favored by 23.5 and needs to win in order to hold on to the 4th seed in Group A. A Serbia loss and a Venezuela win would bump Serbia to the 5th spot and Venezuela would sneak into the knockout round. However, despite being 1-3, Serbia is one of the better teams in the tournament and just gave USA a big scare so this should be a fairly easy win for them.
At 0-4, China looks to try and snag their 1st win of the tournament before they are sent home.
Yi Jianlian – PF – $8800
With an average of 37.25 dk points over their 4 games, Jianlian is about as safe as it gets. Though it’s very unlikely, China will come out and try to win this game. Jianlian should play close to 35 minutes and he should be able to produce. If you’re paying up PF, its either Jianlian or Carmelo for $400 less. I’d much rather have Jianlian in that situation.
Ailun Guo – SG – $4600
Outside of Jianlian, Guo has been China’s most consistent player averaging close to 20 dk points per game. He played 35 minutes last game and it’s possible that he could get that same amount of run here. 19 dk points in 35 minutes is somewhat discouraging, but he has some upside at only $4600.
Bogdan Bogdanovic – SG – $8300
He’s too expensive for how scoring dependent he is. He has averaged only 22 dk points over their 4 games yet his price continues to rise. There are some cheaper guys that I like at the SG position.
Milos Teodosic – SG – $5700
One of those guys that I like is Teodosic. For $2600 less than Bogdanovic, you get someone with the same match-up that has shown more upside in this tournament. De Colo or Teodosic will be the two guys I’ll choose between for this slate. I think either one should be fine.
Miroslav Raduljica – C – $5600
Had he stayed out of foul trouble, Raduljica would have had a huge game against USA. This is the perfect match-up for him and he should be a safe play.
Nikola Jokic – C – $6400
With Raduljica in foul trouble, Jokic saw more minutes and put up 40.5 dk points in the last game. We all knew that he had that kind of upside, however, I’m hesitant to play him here. I think a lot of people will play him because of his last game and I’m willing to fade him and hope that he has a similar output to his first 3 games. Jokic could certainly go out and have a huge game once again, I’m simply taking a chance here and fading him.
Stefan Markovic – PG – $2700
GPP punt play here. I likely won’t play him, but he’s played consistent minutes in their last 3 games and has had solid fantasy numbers for his price tag. He may be worth a shot in a GPP if you are playing multiple lineups. If this game does become a blowout, he could have a solid game for his price.
Thanks for reading guys! Good Luck!