Olympic Basketball 8/15
Final day of group play and this a shaping up to be a great 3 game slate. Here’s how Group B looks after 4 games.
Here are the games.
Nigeria vs Brazil (-7.5) o/u 165.5
Argentina vs Spain (-8.5) o/u 164.5
Croatia vs Lithuania (-5.5) o/u 152.5
Each of these games matter as they all have some effect on seeding for the knockout round. If there are teams tied in points after group play, here are the tie-breakers: If 2 teams are tied, Head-to-head results will be the deciding factor. If 3 or more teams are tied, point-difference ± will be the deciding factor.
Argentina and Lithuania have already advanced, but they are both trying to get the #1 seed as the being the #2 seed puts you on USA’s side of the bracket. If both teams win today, Lithuania would be the #1 seed as they beat Argentina in the game they played.
Spain and Croatia are in must-win games as a loss could potentially put them out of the tournament.
Brazil and Nigeria both still have a chance at moving on to the knockout round. Brazil needs to win and needs Spain to lose. Nigeria needs to win and needs Croatia to lose.
Hopefully I explained all of that in a way that’s easy to understand. If you are still confused, the best way I can sum it up is that each of these games will be fun to watch and great for fantasy purposes. Now let’s get into breaking down these games.
Nigeria vs Brazil
At 1-3, both of these teams are still alive and have a chance to grab the 4th seed. I expect this to be a very competitive game.
Nigeria picked up their 1st win last time out with a convincing 90-76 win over Croatia. The 3-ball came into play as Nigeria went 17/36 from 3. They shot 35 times from 3 the game before as that game against Spain came down to the wire. I expect a similar game-plan for Nigeria as the outside shot has been their difference maker. We will be targeting their shooters in this match-up.
Ike Diogu – PF – $8200
I called a double-double for Diogu in my last write-up and he finished with 10 points and 12 rebounds. He has a good shot at another one here. If Nigeria shoots 35 times from 3 and makes 50% of those, Diogu still has at least 17 opportunities to grab an offensive rebound. That’s exactly what happened last time out. Nigeria shot 47% from 3 giving 19 opportunities for Diogu to grab an offensive rebound. Diogu would finish the game with 8 offensive boards, his highest total so far. I expect Nigeria to get at least 30 shots up from 3 but I don’t expect them to continue to shoot close to 50%. I think Diogu picks up a fair amount of offensive boards and gets his third double-double of the tournament.
Michael Umeh – PG – $3100
He was a GPP play for me last time out as I thought he could put up a big game if his shot was falling. Well he went 6/10 from the field (all from 3) and finished with 33.25 dk points. That’s his upside and at $3100, I’m willing to take another shot on him.
Josh Akognon – PG – $2300
Akognon was my favorite play on the slate last time out. He’s been getting more minutes as Nigeria has started focusing more on the 3-ball. He has had back-to-back games of 25 and 28 dk points. With Akognon’s price at only $2300 and with Nigeria’s new game-plan, I think he makes for a great value play. He’s still a little iffy for cash, but I love him in tournaments.
Chamberlin Oguchi – SG – $5600 & Alade Aminu – PF – $4100
Oguchi is a GPP only play for me. At only $5600, he has shown that he has 40 dk point upside. I like Aminu for similar reasons as Diogu. He played his most minutes last time out and finished with his best fantasy numbers yet with 25.25 dk points. He’ll have those same opportunities to grab the offensive rebounds as Diogu. I can see him getting a lot of put-backs in this game and he makes for a nice value play at only $4100.
Brazil is coming off of a tough 111-107 double-overtime loss to Argentina. This is a huge game for them as they need a win in order to have a shot at moving on.
Nene Hilario – C – $6200
Huge game for Nene as he finished with 44.25 dk points. Surprisingly most of that production came in regulation as he only scored 4 points and grabbed 3 rebounds in the overtimes. That’s 9.25 points including the double-double bonus, so 35 points through 4 quarters is not bad and is exactly what we need out of Nene. He can definitely do that again in this match-up, I’m just not sure if I’ll play him as I’ll likely be spending up for Pau.
Leonardo Barbosa – SG – $6500
Barbosa had 0 field goals made though 4 quarters and 1 overtime. He went 4/8 from the field making all 4 shots in the second overtime. It’s hard for me to trust him right now so I likely won’t be playing him at all. However, this is a must-win game for Brazil and Barbosa will be looked upon to score if they want to win.
Marcelo Huertas – PG – $4700
Huertas finished with 19.25 dk points before fouling out in the 1st overtime. Foul trouble kept his minutes down, but he still produced a decent fantasy total. He does need to score somewhere in the mid-20s to pay off his salary, but I think if he can stay out of foul trouble, he should be able to go just that in this match-up. Huertas makes for a solid play at that price.
Alex Garcia – SF – $3200
Garcia played big minutes last game and scored 29 dk points in 34 minutes. Before last game, his minutes were between 15 and 18 in the 3 games before. I think part of the reason he got so much more playing time was because Huertas was in foul trouble and the game went into 2 overtimes. I’d be hesitant on Garcia here because he very well could go back to his 15-18 minutes in this game. But at only $3200, he does make for a fine GPP punt at SF, but I like another cheap SF in another game much more.
Argentina vs Spain
Big game as the winner could be the top seed depending on the outcome of the Croatia vs Lithuania game.
Argentina had a scare with Brazil but they held them off for a 111-107 double-overtime win. Some players on Argentina’s side had big games and will likely pull more ownership because of recency bias.
Luis Scola – PF – $8500
Foul trouble kept Scola from a having as big of a game as a couple of his teammates, however, Scola still managed to pick up a double-double. $8500 is a tough price to pay, but this is a game where Scola will be needed. I think ownership on him will be down, and he could potentially score the most points and the PF position. For that reason, I like Scola in GPPs a lot, but I think you can go cheaper for cash games.
Facundo Campazzo – PG – $6600
I was off of Campazzo yesterday and boy did that hurt. Double overtime helped a lot, but Campazzo managed to drop 65 dk points. After that last game, I think he will be the highest owned PG. For that reason, I’m tempted to fade him again in some lineups as I know he won’t match that performance. However, I do think he is a fine play and obviously has huge upside. He should be safe for cash and GPPs as this should be a very competitive game.
Andres Nocioni – PF – $6400
I haven’t played Nocioni once since the tournament started. I think that may be a mistake as he has been one of Argentina’s top players averaging 32.4 dk points through their first 4 games. Of course that is heavily aided by his 56.75 dk points in the double-overtime game, but I still like him here and I think you can save money off Scola by playing Nocioni in cash games. He’s scored double-digit points and grabbed at least 5 rebounds in every game so far. This is a big game and he should be in line for big minutes.
Manu Ginobili – SG – $7100
Ginobili has been pretty consistent throughout this tournament, averaging 26.6 dk points. With Argentina needing a win to potentially become the #1 seed, Ginobili could be in line for bigger minutes. I think he’s safe for cash and has GPP upside.
Must-win game for Spain as a loss could possibly knock them out of the tournament.
Pau Gasol – C – $9800
Give me all the Pau. He’s the most expensive player on the board, but you’ll want to have him. With Spain in a must-win game last time out against Lithuania, Pau only played 23 minutes. In those 23 minutes, Pau scored 47.25 dk points as Spain went on to win 109-59. Had that game stayed close, Pau would have put up insane numbers. Argentina has given up some big games to big men so far this tournament and I expect Pau to be fully unleashed.
Nikola Mirotic – PF – $7400
This guy is too volatile for me to trust right now. He makes for a great GPP play as he does have 40+ dk point upside, but I’ll likely side with some other PFs that I know will produce.
With how I’m constructing my rosters I probably won’t have any more exposure to Spain players. The PG situation is crowded as you have Rubio, Sergio Rodriguez, and Sergio Llull. Either one of those could have a nice game but figuring out which one is something I’m not going to do. Rudy Fernandez has put together back-to-back solid games. At only $5000, he should be a low-owned GPP play.
Croatia vs Lithuania
Both teams will be trying to win this game as Lithuania want to be the #1 seed and Croatia is trying to survive and move on to the knockout round. Expect starters on both sides to play big minutes.
Bojan Bogdanovic – SG – $8900
This is a win or go home game for Croatia. Bogdanovic has seen over 35 minutes in 3 out of 4 games and he should do so again in this game. He’s expensive at $8900 but he is definitely the safest play at the SG position. I’ll do what I can to get him in my lineups as he could be one of the highest scoring players on the slate.
Dario Saric – PF – $7600
If Saric can stay out of foul trouble, then he should play just as many minutes as Bogdanovic. I like him in both cash and GPPs as Croatia will need him to win this game.
Luka Babic – SF – $2400
Through 4 games he’s averaged 17 dk points. That’s 7x value at only $2400. He’ll likely play around 20 minutes, but I’m willing to take a shot on him again for that price.
Roko Ukic – PG – $3600
I like targeting Croatia players here because they will be fighting to win this game. Ukic is their starting PG. He played 35 minutes last time out and has played at least 20 every game so far. He’s cheap and hos the potential to play over 30 minutes in this game. I think he’ll go over-looked in tournaments and I like him a lot as a value play.
I’m not sure how I’m going to target Lithuania players. They play the last game of the night so they will know exactly what they need to do in order to become the #1 seed since the other games will have already been played. We have late-swap on DK, but we obviously won’t know this information and how we should attack this situation before the other games. Of course they don’t want to lose this game and it should be close, but I’m somewhat hesitant to play some of these guys just in case they do play limited minutes.
Mantas Kalnietis – PG – $7900
This is a great match-up for Kalnietis but his price-tag has me somewhat off of him. The blowout loss to Spain kept his minutes down and I’m not sure if some of these guys will play their full minutes. I’ll have him in some lineups, but those will be GPPs only.
Jonas Maciulis – SF – $5800
The price-bump on Maciulis has me off of him as well. I’ll likely be spending down at this position.
Mindaugas Kuzminkas – SF – $4700
The future New York Knick has been solid throughout this whole tournament averaging 22 dk points. At $4700, he makes for nice play at the SF position. He comes off the bench and should play close to 25 minutes in this match-up. I don’t mind him in cash and GPPs.
This is how I’ll be attacking today’s slate. Thanks for reading guys and Good Luck!