Olympic Basketball 8/19 (SEMIFINALS)
Spain vs USA (-13.5) o/u 186.5
Serbia vs Australia (-4.5) o/u 164.5
We have ourselves a nice two game slate for the Semifinal round. Nailing the right value plays will be important for this slate as pricing will make it tough to construct lineups. Hopefully these game will stay close and we will have a nice day as our mid-summer basketball slowly comes to end. This should be the 2nd to last slate of games as DK should offer a slate for Sunday’s Gold and Bronze medal games. Let’s get into this slate.
Closest spread of the tournament so far for a USA game with USA at -13.5. Spain has been pretty unstoppable since dropping their first 2 games of the tournament as they’ve won their last 4 games by an average of 26 points. However, news has come out the Pau Gasol is dealing with a calf strain and may not play. Pau was not needed much last game out against France, but Spain will need him if they want to compete in this game. If he does miss this game, we may be looking at another USA blowout. But with this being a 2 game slate, I think there are a few USA guys that we can target.
Pau Gasol – C – $10,200
Before the news, I wasn’t sure if I was going to spend over 10k+ for Pau in this matchup. Now that the coach for Spain has said they he isn’t sure that he’ll play, I think we can safely fade Pau here. Even if he does play, he could easily re-aggravate his injury and be limited. I wish he were playing because this game may be closer with him playing. With this news, a $10,200 Pau is an easy fade for me.
Sergio Llull – PG – $4200
He was my premier punt play last time out and I’m going back to the well here. Llull has been very good at his price throughout the tournament. There arent too many “safe” punt plays for this slate, so if you’re looking for someone that should play 25+ minutes and may called upon for more scoring if Pau is limited, then Llull is your guy.
Rudy Fernandez – SF – $6100
After 3 very solid games in a row, Rudy threw up a dud last time out. He is a scorer and Spain will need all the scoring they can get. I wasn’t on Rudy in my preliminary lineup, but if word does come out that Pau may miss this game, I may have to have a share of Rudy in a few lineups.
Nikola Mirotic – PF – $7300
It was the Nikola Mirotic show last time out as he went 9/15 from the field (5/8 from 3) and finished with 38.75 dk points. We all knew Mirotic had a game like this up his sleeve and he will have to have that same magic for this game against USA. If Pau does miss this game, Mirotic will be heavily depended on. I had similar thoughts about Mirotic as I did with Fernandez, if Pau does miss this game, Mirotic will be in a few of my lineups.
Willy Hernangomez – C – $3000 & Felipe Reyes – PF – $3100
You’ll have to have a few punt plays for this slate and here are a few. It is hard to predict which one of these guys will have the better game. I’ll only be playing tournaments on this slate as there are only 2 games. Since these two guys are listed at different positions, I’ll mix and match them and pay up for some other guys. If Pau does miss this game, they should both be in line for bigger minutes.
I think you can play quite a few USA guys here. Even if this game does blow out, we saw last game that Coach K is likely to give his starters extra minutes to get them ready for the Gold medal game.
Kevin Durant – SF – $9600
I think you need to have Durant. I made the mistake of not having him last time out at a thin SF position and he out scores everyone else not named Paul George at the position by over 20 dk points (George finished with 39). He’s definitely the guy you need to pay up for,
Kyrie Irving – PG – $7400
You get Irving at a slight discount off of the Aussie point guards and he makes for a decent play here. If this game does get out of hand, Irving may be one of the starters that will play fewer minutes as USA is very deep at guards. But if Coach K does decide to run his starters out there for some extra minutes to prepare for the Gold medal game, then Irving will be a nice play. If Pau sits out, I may just spend up for one of the AUS PGs since they should play more minutes in a closer game.
Paul George – SF – $7700
George had a solid game last time out as USA may have found the right rotations they have been looking for. Like I said, the SF position is very thin. I like Durant much more than George, but I don’t mind having both of them in my lineup.
for USA makes for fine GPP plays, Demarcus Cousins, Klay Thompson, and Jimmy Butler could all have solid games. Picking the right one is the only issue, I’m hoping this game stays close, and I’ll be making my lineups thinking that the starters may be playing more minutes as Coach K want to prepare them for the Gold medal game.
Australia has looked very strong throughout this tournament. Hopefully this game will stay close as Australia will attempt to rest their players if they get out to big lead. Serbia is coming off of a close win with an 86-83 win over Croatia. This should be a high-scoring game with lots of fantasy points to go around.
Bogdan Bogdanovic – SG – $8100
Bogdanovic finally had a 30+ dk point performance last time out as he stepped up big time in Serbia’s win over Croatia. He will be leaned on heavily here in this game against Australia. Just like the SF position, there aren’t many play at SG either. Bog makes for a fine play, just know he’s likely not going to exceed value, but you may not need that anyways on a 2 game slate.
Miroslav Raduljica – C – $6200
If Pau is out, you’ll have to choose between Baynes, Bogut, and Raduljica. Raduljica would have had a nice game last time out had he just made his shots. He missed so many shot right at the basket. These were all shots he was easily making in the previous games, so hopefully this was just an outlier. He had 32.25 dk points against Australia in their previous matchup.
Milos Teodosic – SG – $6700
His minutes have been the most consistent for Serbia, which is important because Serbia’s coach loves to rotate players in and out. You get Teodosic for a $1400 discount off of Bogdanovic. They have shown the same upside so far this tournament. Unlike Bogdanovic, Teodosic has double-double upside with his assist numbers. For this game, I’ll likely to the discount on Teodosic.
Milan Macvan – PF – $3200
Macvan started last time out for Serbia. He has had 2 decent games in a row for his price and makes for a potential punt play on this slate. He likely won’t play much more than 15 minutes, but he doesn’t have to do much to pay off his price tag.
Stefan Markovic – PG -$3500
Markovic starts and has played consistent minutes into the 20s so far this tournament. He another name I’ll mention that could be a potential punt play for your lineup.
In group play, the game between these two team stayed close until the 4th quarter. Starters for Australia put up big numbers in that game. Let’s hope for another close game as we can target those same players in this match-up. Just know if this game does start to get out of hand, Australia will attempt to rest some guys.
Patty Mills – PG – $8500
He’s scored over 20 real points in every game he’s played his regular amount of minutes. He should get close to 30 minutes in this one and should put up similar numbers.
Matthew Dellavedova – PG – $8000
Delly had a monster game in Australia’s 1st game against Serbia. In games where he is needed to perform, he has been great as his assist numbers have been through the roof. This should be a very competitive game and I’m like Mills/Delly combo once again.
The price on Bogut kind puts me off of him. He did have a solid game in the previous game with Serbia, but Australia may be cautious with Bogut here. He’s looked healthy when he’s been on the court. Let’s just hope this game stays close and he’ll be out there for his 25 minutes. The price on Baynes, however, I like a lot. I don’t mind the discount at all. Both of these guys make for fine plays. I like Baynes more because of price.
Joe Ingles – SF – $5500 & Ryan Broekhoff – SF – $3900
I’ll more than likely be taking Durant at the SF position and spending down at the other forward spot. Ingles has been consistent and makes for a fine play if you’re going for a more balanced lineup. Ryan Broakhoff is someone else to target. He’s been getting close to 20 minutes per game has played well so far this tournament. I don’t mind him at all at $3900. I do think he will be one of the more popular punt plays.
Thanks for reading guys. Good Luck! I will have another write-up for Sunday’s Gold and Bronze medal games!