Online ATS Contest Week 9 Thoughts
NFL handicapping has been around for decades, and yet I have not heard of anyone claiming to have cracked the code. NFL lines are the most efficent of any of the major American Sports, which is why pro gamblers bet more than just NFL lines That said, who doesnt like a good ole fashioned contest with real american dollars up for grabs? This year I regidetered in an online handicapping contest which is very similar to the annual WestGate Super Contestm which you may have heard of. Different lines, but same goal. I will not name the website, as they have told me I can’t, but I will share my picks and analysis of the spreads they put out every Wednesday for their contest. Below are my personal notes I “jot” down after a week of absorbing content and thinking of the weeks’ card. I could edit the typos and grammars, but then it wouldn’t be raw would it? Without further ado, here are my picks and thoughts on the games from an ATS perspective.
Value: MIN 1.5 PTS
Everything Else: I think it’s too small. I think MIN bounces back after the NO loss, and think 4.5 is too small. I think they win by at least a TD. I’ll feel better about it if some of their defense gets healthy for this game, but I think it’s a bounce back spot for MIN.
Pick: MIN -4.5
Value: CLE 2.5 PTS
Everything Else: Cleveland has the new head coach narrative going for them, but I don’t know how they will react to it. Plus, Greg Williams sucks and is delusional. Theres been sharp movement on CLE but I don’t care. Mayfield has struggled this year, might be due to his ankle. The edge in QB and HC is too much for me to want to take CLE. It’s KC or nothing, and I might make them a pick
Pick: KC -9.5
Value: BAL 0.5 PTS
Everything Else: Baltimore is the better team, so theres value in them being under a FG. They might’ve been looking ahead to this game last week when they got stomped by CAR. PIT’s opponents have not been up to par during their win streak. I’m taking BAL here, and will consider them for one of my five.
Pick: BAL -2.5
Value: TB 3 PTS
Everything Else: This line movement is an over correction for Fitz to Jamies. They are not 3 pts apart, if any pts apart for that matter. CAR has the QB edge, but not as big as you would think. Their defense doesn’t match up well at all with what TB wants to do. 7.5 is just too much, and leaves the door open for a back door cover. TB will most likely be one of my 5
Pick: TB +7.5
Value: NO LINE
Everything Else: MIA giving the hook? No thanks. I like NY here, as I see a lot of value with +3.5. Not too crazy about it but we have seen Darnold have some spike performances so they have a shot to crush this number. I’ll consider them for a pick, but wont prioritize it.
Pick: NYJ +3.5
Value: ATL 0.5 PTS
Everything Else: At first I liked WAS here, but the more I thought about it the more I liked ATL. Better HC and QB, and they could run past WAS as WAS’s offense just isn’t strong enough to keep up in a shoot out, if ATL can make it that type of game. Plus, Trent Williams might not play, which will be a big blow to WAS’ style of play. I’ll lean ATL here, might not make them a pick
Pick: ATL +1.5
HC: WASH, MAYBE BUF
Value: NO LINE
Everything Else: Buffalo should be flat coming off that MNF loss to NE, but im not laying 9.5 w/ Trubisky on the road. No thanks to either side
Pick: Doesn’t matter
Value: HOU 4 PTS
Everything Else: I’m in the minority agreeing with DEN being favored, but im not excited to pick them. Losing Will Fuller is huge for this offense, and replacing him with DT isn’t going to replace him at all lol. Tremendous value from the look ahead with HOU, but I don’t care. Not touching this game.
QB: SEA, ARGUABLY A WASH FOR THIS WEEK
Value: SD +1.5
Everything Else: LA is a much better team, though theres lots of variance with them coming off a bye. Its tough relying on Anthony Lynn going into SEA and winning, but they do have Rivers and the superior squad. The spread is close, the HC/QB combo is pretty close. Just no real edge here imo
Value: LA +1.5
Everything Else: Man oh man. No idea where to go with this game. LA would be -4.5 in LS, which is too big so I see some value with NO not getting the full 3. They’re at home with a better defense and an edge at QB, but McVay is no slouch. If anyone can go into NO and win its McVay. I’m picking NO, not gonna be too thrilled if they land on my card
PICK: NO -1.5
Value: NE 1 PT
Everything Else: 6.5 is a lot to give Rodgers. Neither team has very many good players, its mostly just Brady and Rodgers, so I like Rodgers to keep them in the game. I expect NE to win by a FG most likely, so GB +6.5 will probably be my pick. Not crazy to go against Bellichick and Brady, but if youre going to do it, Rodgers is the guy to do it with.
PICK: GB +6.5