Panda's 11/7 NBA Picks- Bamboo Chew and Slate Overview
If you’re reading this, you’ve probably seen me positing in the daily thread forums, especially in NBA and MLB. This year I wanted to expand beyond just posting on the boards and writing a blog here for RG. This is my first attempt and hope all who read it find it useful. Please do provide any thoughts and feedback, positive or negative that I can use to make this better.
BOS ( 112.5 ) @ CHA ( 106.5 )
PACE: BOS – 19th CHA – 24th
OFF EFF: BOS – 10th CHA – 15th
DEF EFF: BOS – 12th CHA – 25th
REB RATE: BOS – 28th CHA – 24th
CHA is dead last in points allowed in the paint, while Boston is 5th best.
CHA is 2nd to last in assists allowed per possession.
CHA is 27th in steals allowed per possession
The story of this game is obvious. It’s Kemba’s return to Charlotte, and to a lesser extent Rozier getting to face his old team who decided to let him walk. If you love narrative plays, this is about as good as it gets. If you think narratives are overrated, this is a great spot to fade it all together and hope that the story here inflates ownership.
Kemba’s price is mostly inflated and with the return of Brown likely, every Celtic, including Kemba, who’s been crushing of late takes a hit. Rozier himself is a relatively solid defender. CHA is 12th best in DVP against PG’s. There’s no real pace up value. Kemba’s realistic ceiling here is 50 to 55, which isn’t back breaking if you don’t have him.
Rozier, is a little bit more interesting, but because of that will also have the higher ownership. The match-up is arguably worse, it is worse, but the price is much fairer. We’re also looking at a player with although similar usage to Kemba, when Brown was in, who is arguably more integral to his teams success. I think it’s fair to put Rozier’s ceiling at or near that of Kemba’s at a big discount, especially on DK. I’m a big fan of taking advantage of price discrepancies between sites, and the $800 mark down on DK from FD suggests there could be value there.
Dwayne Bacon got cooked and booted from the rotation last game minutes after the half, in favor of Devonte’ Graham, who came in and apparently played so well he never left, playing the last 25 minutes of the game, including OT. Bacon has some upside in his price, but considering the match up is nothing worth noting, this is probably a situation that can be avoided, especially if making a very limited amount of line ups. If you want to see that upside that exists though and argue that Bacon may not be fried yet and he may be motivated after basically being benched, I can get behind that. On a 4 game slate, Bacon definitely has the ability to “break the slate” with one of his 35 to 40 fantasy-point kind of outings.
Jaylen Brown is priced up like he’s been crushing DFS scores and not Kleenex into trash cans. This is overall an average at best spot. Before falling ill he delivered back-to-back quality games and if fully recovered picking up right where he left off would not surprise me, but we have to take stands somewhere.
This is a great spot for Hayward. Problem is he’s priced like Brown is out. He still has upside here, but the chances of him putting up can’t miss numbers at this price are too low for my liking. I expected miles more from Bridges this year, but he continues to record 20-25 fantasy point type games and yet to really flash the upside I would have expected. There’s nothing here to point to expect that to change.
Continuing the Celtics theme, Tatum is priced up as well.
This is in general, a tough situation with the Celtics. As a whole they’re in a good spot against the Hornets, but everyone’s price is inflated. Do you embrace the good spot and play them anyway, knowing any of these guys can still get you 50 although not as likely as if Brown was out or do you refuse to pay the seemingly high prices? That’s the overall story here.
This is actually a nice spot for PJ Washington from a DVP perspective, who left their last game early with a leg contusion, but is expected to play. On a limited slate with limited options as a whole, a guy in an arguably good spot with some upside in his price needs to be considered.
The C position is a muddled mess for both teams, which is a shame as it’s the most exploitable spot for both teams. The return of Kanter would most likely make any Center from Boston unplayable, with Theis priced up and Kanter’s minutes unknown. Zeller after a stellar start has had his minutes trimmed way back the last two games, with Williams and Washington closing it out in the front court two games ago, and Biyombo doing so last game. Zeller’s price is nice on DK if we can find the faith to think the minutes will be there.
All of Boston’s bench takes a hit with the return of Brown with unplayable prices. The Hornets bench, outside of Graham, is a mess. With limited options across a four-game slate though, we may have to take some leaps of faith.
All in all, what we’re left with is a lot of speculative plays with nothing standing out.
OKC ( 103.5 ) @ SAS ( 108 )
PACE: OKC – 16th SAS – 12th
OFF EFF: OKC – 25th SAS – 13th
DEF EFF: OKC – 3rd SAS – 14th
REB RATE: OKC – 11th SAS – 3rd
Questionable: Derrick White
Exploitable Stats: None founded.
This game may as well by UG vs. LY, because it is UGLY. With only 4 games and the one we’ve already gone over not loaded with quality plays we still need to scrap the barrel and see what kind of guck we can polish up.
Despite Murray’s reputation as a quality on the ball defender, he is, DVP says this is the Spurs weak spot. Paul has been pretty consistent over his last 3 games with solid, but unspectacular returns. That may be all we need here though. The stats continue to show Paul is still a quality defender leading all PG’s in DRPM last year, while the Thunder are 10th best in DVP against PG’s so far. Considering the minute limits on Murray continue to exist and an all needs to go right price I’m going to have a hard time clicking on Murray, despite the feasible upside, especially when Rozier and Paul are right there in that price point.
White will most likely play, but if he doesn’t, history says Forbes could see a few extra minutes, at least putting him on the cheap flier radar, but nothing in the match-up suggests he could blow up here. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hass been extremely consistent. Like Paul, the price hits right about where his median projection would be in that 5 times value range, keeping your line up somewhat afloat with upside for more. Like Forbes there isn’t much about the match up to suggest he could blow up here, but we know he has the upside to do so. The 1.1K discount on DK from his price on FD suggests there is some value here though.
Yesterday, I wrote Snell had no upside and he had a huge first half. Today I will write Ferguson has no upside either, take that how you will.
DeRozan and Aldridge continue to be priced in the 7K range and continue to post 30 to 40 fantasy points. Clearly Murray’s production is chipping away at theirs and they still seem to be overpriced overall for their production. Again, as I continue to state with this game the match-up doesn’t suggest that this is a spot where either should exceed what their means, but we have to work with what we’re given. These are “safe” plays who could exceed salary expectations randomly on a short slate.
Aside from PG, PF is where the Spurs have been weakest, but what we get is Danillo Gallinari who, despite decent usage, and a continually decreasing price, continues to disappoint. The positive is, he’s taking as many as 15 to 17 shots a game, the negative is he’s doing so at a poor clip with limited peripherals.
On a slate without many clear cut options at C, except maybe in Miami, I believe Adams is worthwhile, with minutes being our main concern. Lyles is mostly nothing, but cheap filler who could get you low to mid-20’s (on a good day) at a cheap tag.
If White plays, himself, Mills, Gay, Poeltl and Marco are all appropriately priced enough, with uninspiring match ups begging to be faded.
Schroder has slate breaking upside on a short slate and as mentioned, PG’s have been an exploitable spot against the Spurs. He’s already had multiple smash games this year, but they took place against higher paced opponents. I don’t feel comfortable writing him off here though. Hamidou Diallo has seen his role off the bench grow a bit as the season has progressed and if it were to happen to increase anymore here, there is some upside left in his price as well. The same thing can be said for Bazley.
Core Plays: Chris Paul
Outer Core Plays: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Mantle Plays: DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dennis Schroder, Steven Adams
Crust Plays: Hamidou Diallo, Danillo Gaillinari, Bryn Forbes
MIA ( 108.5 ) @ PHX ( 109.5 )
PACE: MIA – 9th PHX -11th
OFF EFF: MIA – 17th PHX – 8th
DEF EFF: MIA – 4th PHX – 5th
REB RATE: MIA – 4th PHX – 17th
Miami is 2nd best in 3 point % allowed, but 2nd to last in 3-point attempts allowed.
Miami is 25th in steals allowed per possession.
Phoenix continues to shock the world with a victory over the Sixers in their last outing. Ranking 8th on offense and 5th on defense they’re clearly a juggernaut to not take likely…Or are they?
I have no idea. They probably aren’t as bad as years past, as Booker and Oubre grow, with the additions of legitimately solid players in Saric and a legit PG in Rubio they should at least continue to be more competitive than in years past. Miami has been exceptional themselves other then suffocating in the thin air of Denver in their last outing.
Rubio has been super steady so far and his ability to fill the stat sheet with near trouble doubles and a smattering of steals gives him a nice floor. The PG spot is really tough here tonight with Rubio, Rozier, and Paul all in this same price range with very similar ranges of outcome and match ups. I like Rubio here, but he falls beneath these two tonight for me. Winslow is a wild card, who has yet to find his upside with Butler on the floor with a sinking usage rate. We know like Rubio, he can fill up a stat sheet with peripherals. If you think this game plays faster than the over/under suggests, and it could, Winslow becomes intriguing as the boards, and chances for blocks and steals increases.
We’re still really learning who is going to step up for Miami with them fully heatly. They’ve only played 2 games with Winslow and Butler on the floor and one was a blowout loss to Denver were everyone struggled. The shots have been there for Nunn (18, 17, 17, 18, 15, 10, 14 FGA ) even with everyone healthy, but he’s not making them. If you want to count on Nunn’s shots to start falling he might be cheap enough to be worth your while.
On a slate without a lot of “studs” Booker is the 4th and 5th most expensive player on DK and FD respectively. It’s not at all a good spot, but his talent and upside are still the same. He’s much harder to justify on DK where Butler is SG eligible at a 1.2K discount with all the same upside.
Oubre’s been trending downward as the season progresses and I think in this price range we can do better.
Saric has an exploitable match up, but the minutes are iffy. On a short slate, with limited options I don’t feel comfortable writing him off, but won’t be actively jamming him into line ups. Same can be said about Kaminsky.
Bam and Leonard are both interesting. As Leonard has emerged, Bam has suffered. One of them should be a solid play, but I have no idea which one.
James Johnson went from 22 minutes to 6. Derrick Jones Jr is back. Olynyk could play 20 minutes or 15. Dragic and Herro are the only consistent pieces on the Heat bench with expectations around 25 minutes for Dragic and 30 for Herro. Both are heat check type plays, where they could be chucking and if it’s going in they can hit. Dragic seems to have taken a hit with the return of Butler though.
Core Plays: Jimmy Butler
Outer Core Plays: N/A
Mantle Plays: Ricky Rubio, Devin Booker, Dario Saric, Meyers Leonard, Bam Adebayo
Crust Plays: Frank Kaminsky, Tyler Herro, Aaron Baynes, Justice Winslow
POR ( 112.75 ) @ LAC ( 118.25 )
PACE: POR – 10 LAC – 23rd
OFF EFF: POR – 4th LAC – 3rd
DEF EFF: POR – 22nd LAC – 16th
REB RATE: POR – 24th LAC – 7th
Exploitable Stats: None to be found.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the main event of the evening. If you’re lineup(s) holds no one from this game be prepared to dive further than you’ve ever imagined. Maybe not. Who knows? This is clearly the most fantasy friendly environment on the slate.
I never remember Dame being this consistent before, with only one game below 50 DK points on the young season. There’s certainly meat on the bone at this price and although Beverly is a very capable defender, the Clippers are dead middle in the league in DVP to PG’s. Beverly finally broke through with Kawhi out last night, reminiscent of some of his end of season performances last year. With Kawhi back, I would fully expect a return to norm, which isn’t going to cut it for us here.
Landry Shamet continues to show no upside. Even on a small late we can just breeze on by to CJ McCollum, who I believe has one of the better price to ceiling ratios on the slate. His usage has been up and down, as Anfernee Simons has taken on some of the ball handling duties off the bench that CJ used to have. I still am of firm believe there’s just too much upside in this price to ignore it on a 4 game slate.
With Harkless and Aminu gone the Blazers have lost a little defensively on the wing. Bazemore can fill that role to some degree, but it’s still a step down. Anyway, I don’t need to tell anybody that Kawhi is in play and arguably the best play of the entire slate. There’s nothing exciting about rostering Rodney Hood. Ever. He is the type of guy who could get hot from deep and post a score you can’t take down a GPP without, so I wouldn’t write him off completely, but there’s not obvious to suggest that this is a greater possibility tonight, then any other night. I also would argue that it is a possibility that he loses some minutes to Bazemore here.
Even this slate is too big for Patterson or Tolliver to likely be of use. Patterson especially. Tolliver, if you believe sees north of 25 minutes may be a worthwhile dart filler, but you’re probably better off paying up a bit for Hezonja’s higher ceiling if you’re going to play around with this area.
Whiteside is by far the highest upside C on the slate. He’s also volatile as they come. Due to that upside and our lack of options, he will undoubtedly be the chalk. If you want to embrace the negative side of his volatility and fade or gone well underweight to get a leg up, I wouldn’t blame you. I will be most likely eating the chalk. Zubac is interesting tonight, because of the immense minutes Harrell played last night, 39, and size wise Zubac matches up a little better here. It wouldn’t be crazy to think Zubac sees the high side of minutes here and C’s have been doing quite alright against the Blazers, having given up the 5th most fantasy points to the position so far this season.
Speaking of Harrell, we’ll probably be looking at inflated ownership, fresh off his monumental game. Because of that, and my general assumption that his minutes could trend down to the high 20’s tonight, I’ll be mostly staying away. This is essentially my same view on Lou. Jump shooters need their legs, and after 39 minutes last night, and again, inflated ownership I’m a little leery. I’d rather take the savings down to CJ and get a similar ceiling for much less.