PGA Championship Picks & Projections

Coming off of my first attempt at trying to give out golf picks and projections, I have to say that the results were a bit mixed. I feel like the projections are a good source that you can use to find value as far as players go, but they also led me to make a couple of bad decisions last week. Before we get into this week’s picks, let’s break down the good and the bad from last week:

Recap

  • Boo Weekley – Boo ended up with a 3 over par, good enough for a solid 33rd place finish.
  • Jason Day – Here is the guy that really hurt me last week. I paid over $18,000 to roster him and he came up with an awful performance. Should have listened to Stlcardinals when he mentioned that he had a sore wrist. Day finished in 53rd place with an 8 over.
  • Henrik Stenson – Stenson carried my team last week. He played great all weekend and ended up tying for second with a very solid 8 under par.
  • Bubba Watson – Bubba ended up being a bit of a letdown. He played great on Thursday and Friday and then fell apart on the weekend. He ended up shooting a 2 over after being -5 through 36 holes. Still, not a terrible run for Bubba.
  • Jim Furyk – Furyk was my favorite pick last week and even though he tailed off a bit the last two days, he still carded a 4 under which was good enough for a 9th place finish.
  • Brandt Snedeker – Snedeker’s scorecard was all kinds of colors last week. He had eagles, birdies, bogeys, and double bogeys. He tied Boo with a 3 over par.

So as you can see, there were both good and bad picks from last week based off of my projections. The team was still good enough to cash in most of my double ups, but didn’t get anywhere near cashing in the GPP’s. Hopefully this week will be different.

This week I have changed my projections up a little bit. To come up with the total score for a player, I took into account their odds of winning, their % of cuts made, as well as the number of top 10 finishes this year on tour. I gave the categories a weight of 80%, 10%, and 10% with the 80% being for the odds of winnings this week.

The total score is basically a rank from 1-100 with 100 being the best. As you can see, Tiger is clearly at the top of the list with a score of 99.5. After each players total score was calculated, I ranked them and gave them a projected score based on where they were ranked. Here are my picks for the week based on my projections and Draftstreet’s salary and scoring:

dustin johnson

PGA Championship Picks

Dustin Johnson – $17,730 – Johnson has not performed well in the majors this year other than a 13th place finish at the Masters, but he is a guy that has always seemed to show up big in big events. He finished tied for 47th in this event last year, but I’m expecting a much better performance this time around.

Zach Johnson – $17,022 – Johnson is locked in right now finishing in the top 6 in each of his last 3 events. He is coming in as one of the hottest players and his price tag isn’t too expensive.

Jason Dufner – $18,039 – The Duff Really played well last weekend and has two top 5 finishes in his last 4 events. Dufner tied for 27th in the PGA Championship last season.

Ian Poulter – $15,802 – Poulter is one of my dark horses to contend this week. He doesn’t play in a ton of events, but has always performed well in majors including a 3rd place finish in this event last year.

Jim Furyk – $15,217 – Dollar for dollar, Furyk is my favorite player this week. He has really been playing well this season other than the missed cuts at the British and US Opens.

Webb Simpson – $15,761 – Simpson has made 5 cuts in a row and has 2 top 15 finishes in those events. He is a very talented player that should easily make the cut this year.

The table below is sortable, but it’s currently sorted by the best value per salary $:

Player Name Salary Cuts % Cuts Top 10’s Odds to Win Player Score Projection $/Point
Jim Furyk $15,217 13 76.47% 4 67 69.8 20.60 $738.69
Webb Simpson $15,761 14 73.68% 4 63 69.8 21.20 $743.44
Billy Horschel $14,310 19 90.48% 7 93 71.2 19.20 $745.31
Ian Poulter $15,802 9 75.00% 3 53 73.3 21.20 $745.38
Hideki Matsuyama $13,985 4 80.00% 2 88 66.1 18.60 $751.88
Harris English $14,313 18 81.82% 4 103 67 19.00 $753.32
Martin Laird $12,658 12 66.67% 2 135 51.4 16.80 $753.45
Boo Weekley $11,057 17 80.95% 4 175 48.1 14.60 $757.33
Dustin Johnson $17,730 11 64.71% 4 37 78.4 23.40 $757.69
Zach Johnson $17,022 14 73.68% 4 48 76.4 22.40 $759.91
Paul Casey $13,995 3 60.00% 0 105 54.6 18.40 $760.60
Nicolas Colsaerts $13,009 8 50.00% 3 113 53.8 17.10 $760.76
Nick Watney $13,860 14 70.00% 2 113 57.8 18.20 $761.54
Jordan Spieth $14,602 13 76.47% 6 90 69 19.10 $764.50
Ryan Palmer $12,134 15 78.95% 4 156 53 15.80 $767.97
Matteo Manassero $13,229 4 50.00% 0 125 47.1 17.20 $769.13
Richard Sterne $13,392 4 66.67% 1 125 52.6 17.40 $769.66
Bubba Watson $16,968 14 82.35% 3 51 76.9 22.00 $771.27
Ernie Els $15,619 10 71.43% 1 63 66.3 20.20 $773.22
Steve Stricker $17,032 8 88.89% 5 50 80.9 22.00 $774.18
Ryan Moore $14,092 11 61.11% 3 103 60.2 18.20 $774.29
Jonas Blixt $10,550 11 55.00% 1 175 38.4 13.60 $775.74
Chris Kirk $10,426 16 84.21% 3 150 56.3 13.40 $778.06
Lee Westwood $18,985 13 86.67% 6 28 91.6 24.40 $778.07
Sergio Garcia $16,266 9 81.82% 4 46 80.8 20.90 $778.28
Rickie Fowler $15,725 14 77.78% 4 64 71.1 20.20 $778.47
Jason Day $17,496 15 93.75% 5 44 83.8 22.40 $781.07
Bill Haas $16,723 13 68.42% 9 53 75.2 21.40 $781.45
Bo Van Pelt $13,024 14 73.68% 1 128 52.1 16.60 $784.58
Angel Cabrera $15,575 14 82.35% 2 85 67.9 19.80 $786.62
Jason Dufner $18,039 13 76.47% 2 38 78 22.80 $791.18
Jamie Donaldson $11,877 5 55.56% 0 163 40.2 15.00 $791.80
Matt Kuchar $19,620 17 94.44% 7 34 89.4 24.70 $794.33
Tim Clark $12,417 9 56.25% 3 119 54.2 15.60 $795.96
Brandt Snedeker $20,094 13 76.47% 8 29 89.2 25.20 $797.38
Rory McIlroy $19,164 9 75.00% 4 30 85.3 24.00 $798.50
Martin Kaymer $16,853 9 69.23% 3 58 69.7 21.10 $798.72
Francesco Molinari $12,644 4 50.00% 1 109 52.8 15.80 $800.25
Miguel Angel Jimenez $13,321 2 80.00% 1 141 52.9 16.60 $802.47
Kyle Stanley $11,092 11 52.38% 3 175 38.1 13.80 $803.77
Luke Donald $19,140 9 75.00% 4 35 81.9 23.80 $804.20
Hunter Mahan $18,867 15 75.00% 4 34 82.5 23.40 $806.28
Graeme McDowell $17,420 7 58.33% 4 55 68.8 21.60 $806.48
Peter Hanson $12,593 8 61.54% 1 156 44.7 15.60 $807.24
Padraig Harrington $12,893 9 60.00% 3 125 54.1 15.80 $816.01
Charl Schwartzel $18,537 12 85.71% 4 39 83 22.60 $820.22
K J Choi $11,082 15 75.00% 2 163 47.3 13.50 $820.89
Keegan Bradley $19,585 15 75.00% 7 33 86.7 23.80 $822.90
Graham Delaet $11,199 17 80.95% 5 169 51.6 13.60 $823.46
Justin Rose $20,527 9 75.00% 5 27 89 24.60 $834.43
Thorbjorn Olesen $13,575 4 40.00% 2 150 44.5 16.20 $837.96
Henrik Stenson $20,888 10 76.92% 5 25 90.4 24.80 $842.26
Fredrik Jacobson $12,108 11 68.75% 3 175 41.5 14.20 $852.68
Russell Henley $12,339 14 70.00% 3 175 44.3 14.40 $856.87
C Howell III $11,701 15 71.43% 5 188 39.7 13.60 $860.37
Branden Grace $13,795 6 54.55% 0 150 43 16.00 $862.19
Kevin Streelman $11,168 13 65.00% 5 181 39.2 12.80 $872.50
Marc Leishman $9,823 12 63.16% 4 213 29.8 11.20 $877.05
Stewart Cink $10,544 12 66.67% 3 200 31.2 12.00 $878.67
Kevin Chappell $12,418 12 63.16% 3 175 38.3 14.00 $887.00
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano $11,036 7 63.64% 3 188 34.7 12.40 $890.00
Geoff Ogilvy $12,160 7 43.75% 1 175 33 13.40 $907.46
Gary Woodland $13,840 17 80.95% 1 163 47.1 15.20 $910.53
Carl Pettersson $10,089 17 80.95% 1 213 31.5 11.00 $917.18
George Coetzee $12,207 8 80.00% 0 175 37.1 13.20 $924.77
John Senden $10,581 12 54.55% 0 200 26.8 11.40 $928.16
Adam Scott $23,342 10 90.91% 4 17 93.1 25.00 $933.68
Phil Mickelson $24,848 13 81.25% 6 15 93.9 26.00 $955.69
Brooks Koepka $9,596 0 0.00% 0 219 17.6 10.00 $959.60
Chris Wood $11,206 3 75.00% 1 200 31 11.60 $966.03
Charley Hoffman $11,786 15 78.95% 5 194 40.3 12.20 $966.07
Peter Uihlein $10,072 1 33.33% 1 219 18.2 10.20 $987.45
Marcel Siem $10,548 5 62.50% 1 219 23.3 10.40 $1,014.23
Bernd Wiesberger $11,033 1 60.00% 0 213 23.6 10.80 $1,021.57
David Toms $9,207 7 50.00% 0 225 16.7 9.00 $1,023.00
Brendon De Jonge $10,129 19 79.17% 3 225 26.8 9.80 $1,033.57
Thomas Bjorn $13,719 2 66.67% 0 175 35 13.00 $1,055.31
John Merrick $12,888 12 63.16% 2 200 30.3 11.80 $1,092.20
Chris Stroud $9,489 14 66.67% 4 238 19.5 8.60 $1,103.37
Tiger Woods $35,664 10 90.91% 7 4 99.5 32.00 $1,114.50
Roberto Castro $11,368 14 60.87% 2 225 19.2 9.40 $1,209.36
Scott Stallings $12,845 10 43.48% 4 219 25.2 10.60 $1,211.79
Scott Piercy $12,074 11 55.00% 3 225 21.1 9.60 $1,257.71
David Hearn $10,902 14 63.64% 2 238 16.9 8.40 $1,297.86
Yong Eun Yang $12,104 9 52.94% 0 225 13.8 9.20 $1,315.65
David Lynn $10,591 10 58.82% 2 263 10.7 7.80 $1,357.82
John Huh $10,554 13 56.52% 1 263 10.9 7.60 $1,388.68
Ben Curtis $10,213 9 50.00% 0 263 7.3 7.20 $1,418.47
Jimmy Walker $11,964 16 84.21% 5 244 25.3 8.20 $1,459.02
David Lingmerth $13,215 11 57.89% 3 231 17.7 8.80 $1,501.70
Michael Thompson $12,465 8 44.44% 3 250 12.4 8.00 $1,558.12
Rafael Cabrera Bello $11,709 2 50.00% 0 263 5.9 7.40 $1,582.30
Sang-Moon bae $11,124 14 66.67% 2 275 11.2 7.00 $1,589.14

As always, I would love to hear feedback on both the picks and the criteria used for the projections!

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Comments

  • dncolonna

    Great stuff, and good luck to everyone playing in the Big Score.

  • snowfighter

    Well Notorious I NO nothing about golf, and dont play either, but am playing fantasy golf. So I will look at your picks along with other research I do. I will try and make a team that will compete. So thanks for insight I need all the help I can get.

  • Notorious

    Lead RG Analyst

    • 68

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #54

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    Thanks guys, good luck this week!

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler