PGA Double Up Challenge (10-3) Week 14: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Each week I play a line-up in the DraftKings $5 single entry double up and track the results here. I play multiple double ups, 50/50’s and head to head contests throughout the week and post my most favourite double up line-up here. I’ve had success with these DFS formats over the past year and a half and with this blog I hope to improve my selection process through reflection while also hopefully helping out some of you. Feel free to follow me on twitter @_bschnarr https://twitter.com/_bschnarr

Valspar Championship review:

No Hadwin no problem! My team of Wesley Bryan (T7), Jason Dufner (T11), Matt Kuchar (T22), Bill Haas (T41), Byeong-Hun An (T49) and Luke Donald (MC) was able to overcome the Hadwin/Stenson stack and place in the money. Despite missing out on these successful chalky plays I avoided Charles Howell and Gary Woodland who made the cut but did not put up enough points to make fading them worrisome. With the win I am also 9-1 in double ups with events that no cut and although I doubt that is sustainable I’ll take it for now! Full results can be seen here https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/38327158?uc=695263642

Arnold Palmer Invitations preview:

This traditional Par 72 (four par threes/fives) plays a bit above tour average lengthwise at over 7400 yards. It appears that a strong all-around game is needed here with consistent play over the year coming from guys who can do a bit of everything. Fantasy Golf Metrics tweeted a picture of approach distances, which shows about 1/3rd come from outside of 200 yards which will make that a priority for me. Also with four par fives scoring on those holes will be necessary for a high DraftKings score and scrambling will be a necessity with many tricky holes. As always-recent form, course history and player salary will also be analyzed to determine my six-player line-up for the week. This tournament also features a 120 player field instead of a 141 player field so a higher percentage of players will make the cut, meaning that more 5/6 and 6/6 teams are likely – increasing the importance of getting players through the cut and having players that can finish at the top of the leaderboard.

PICKS:

Charles Howell III ($6900)

Last week Howell’s price made it tough to roster him for me. Sure he’s been making every cut this year but at $9400 you need much more than just a made cut. Fast-forward to this week and at $6900 Howell is surely to be highly owned and rightly so. At this price Howell provides a highly likely made cut with the savings to allow me to pay-up later in my line-up. Howell has made 6/6 cuts this year and has made eight straight cuts at this event. He will be chalky in cash games this week and for good reason, don’t fade him.

Wesley Bryan ($7100)

Another player who will be chalky is Wesley Bryan who is coming off his third straight top ten showing why he won three times on the web tour last season. Bryan has never played this course but I think he has the game to be successful at this track. Bryan has been great approaching the green this season and ranks 27th on tour in this category. Bryan is 45th in scrambling and performs has a good birdie average on both par threes and fives (24th and 56th). After last week I though Bryan’s price would be around the $8000 range and was okay with paying that, with it being much lower I am all over him this week.

Zach Johnson ($8500)

Dating back to his first appearance in 2004 Johnson has made 12/13 cuts with five top tens including back-to-back top tens the past two seasons. Johnson is able to stay out of trouble with all of the water on this course and has always been able to score on par fives despite his length off the tee.

Francesco Molinari ($8600)

Molinari has played here the past four seasons and has made all four cuts with two top tens. Approaching the green Molinari has been elite this year (4th) and the rest of the stats I am looking for check out. Molinari has made four of five cuts this season and has finished inside the top 20 every time, showing he has the upside to finish at the top of the leaderboard.

Tyrell Hatton ($9100)

Hatton has been incredibly this season with his worst finish being a T13 in the four events he has played thus far. I have been torn between going with Hatton/Rose or Stenson/An as my first four are set but I think the downside of Hatton/Rose is much lower than Stenson/An in cash game events. Hatton has shown his game can translate having success at both The Honda Classic and WGC Mexico and I think the world number 16 has proven enough that his price makes him desirable here.

Justin Rose ($9500)

Rose has been consistent this season with all finishes inside of the top 40 in all six events this season and three top fives. DraftKings says he has made 6/7 cuts this year but really is 6/6 with a withdraw. Rose has been great this season at every stat were looking for except shots gained approaching the green. Surprisingly he has struggled with the irons this season but I’ll chalk it up to sample size of 17 measured rounds with one being a withdrawal. In the past five seasons Rose has finished 39th, 5th, 6th 3rd, 4th in shots gained approaching the green so I wouldn’t worry to much about that. At the event Rose has had success with two top tens and three of four cuts made in recent years.

Other options:
Pat Perez ($7000), Byeong-Hun An ($7000), Kevin Kisner ($7600), Tony Finau ($7600) Jason Day ($10600), Henrik Stenson ($11500)

Feel free to leave any comments on players I did or didn’t mention and let me know what you think!

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