PGA Double Up Challenge (11-3) Week 15: Shell Houston Open

Each week I play a line-up in the DraftKings $5 single entry double up and track the results here. I play multiple double ups, 50/50’s and head to head contests throughout the week and post my favourite double up line-up here. I’ve had success with these DFS formats over the past year and a half and with this blog I hope to improve my selection process through reflection while also hopefully helping out some of you. Feel free to follow me on twitter @_bschnarr https://twitter.com/_bschnarr for more sports content.

Arnold Palmer Invitational review:

My team of Tyrell Hatton (T4), Francesco Molinari (T7), Justin Rose (T13), Charles Howell (T56), Zach Johnson (T66) and Wesley Bryan (69) was able to cash despite weak performances from one half of the line-up. Popular chalk play Henrik Stenson missed the cut which helped propel my line-up into the upper half. I was able to finish 25.5 points clear of the money line and am able to once again state I am on another winning streak! The contest can be seen here

Shell Houston Open preview:

The Shell Houston Open plays as a traditional par 72 with a variety of different hole lengths on the par threes, par fours and par fives. As a result a specific distance on approaches is hard to pinpoint and instead approaches in general become a priority as a key stat for me. The course also features many hazards throughout making it critical to avoid players prone to finding the hazards, as one bad hole can be the difference between a made and a missed cut. Past winners here are also not known for their putting ability, this is not to say putting does not matter but traditionally this surface has been favourable to players who do not fare well in the putting statistics. Ultimately I will be looking for these qualities as well as guys that are underpriced and guys that come in with good recent form.

Picks!

Ollie Schniederjans ($6700)

Schniederjans is making his tournament debut this week so although there is no course data his recent form makes him a viable option at such a low price. Schniederjans has made 8 of 9 cuts this season and has shown with two top tens he has the ability to reach the top of the leaderboard. Schniederjans has shown a well-rounded game this season gaining strokes across all metrics tracked. Overall I think at this price it in a week with less obvious price standouts Ollie is a solid option at a cheap price to build around.

Jhonnattan Vegas ($7300)

With List and Uihlein also at this range this choice was tough but I think Vegas provides more upside with limited risk. Outside of the poor performance at the SBS Tournament of Champions in January, Vegas has been solid with five straight made cuts and his worst finish being T38 through that stretch. The best part of Vegas’s game both this season and last has been strokes gained tee-to-green as he ranks 34th this year and 54th this season. On a course where players who are not known for putting have succeeded I think Vegas has the game to compete and has been a safe cut maker throughout the year.

Jimmy Walker ($7600)

Walker has had an up and down season up until this point and is trending in the right direction with four straight made cuts after two straight missed cuts. At this event Walker has had some success with six straight made cuts at this event dating back to 2010 before Walker was a legitimate player. I think the value is there with Walkers price tag to make him a solid option in cash game formats.

J.B Holmes ($9200)

For those of you who have been following my picks you would notice that I have been a fan of Holmes this year. With great recent history and great course history I am a sucker for him once again this week. Holmes worst finish through 6 starts this year has been a T33, despite no top tens Holmes has consistently made cuts (and birdies!) and there is no reason for that streak to stop here. At this course Holmes has had great success. In his past five starts at this track Holmes has finished 1st, T12, T8, T42 and 2nd. The price tag is a bit higher than we usually see Holmes but given his success at this event and overall strong play this season he will be one of my core plays in all contests this week.

Adam Scott ($9400)

Scott has flown under the radar this season and his price on Draft Kings reflects this. Despite not playing this event in recent years Scott has had success in prior years. Scott finished T14 in 2010, withdrew in 2008, and won the event in 2007. I’ll take my chances with the withdraw on a guy whose proficiency with the irons makes him a threat at any course. For me picking Scott came down to price as a player of his quality

Justin Rose ($9700)

For my last choice I was split between Justin and Ricky. Although I did not have the money with my current roster construction for Ricky I had thought about dropping Vegas for Finau and moving up here but think the Vegas/Rose combo is safer for cash games. Rose has been great this year on tour with 6/6 made cuts in 2017, three top fives and all finished within the top forty for the week. What’s held Rose back somewhat this season has been his shots gained approaching the green. From 2012-2015 Rose finished inside the top ten of this statistic, last year in what can be considered an off year Rose still finished 39th, this season Rose is 106th and has struggled within 125 yards relative to the field. I think it is reasonable to expect this to change with such a small sample this season and with all other aspects of his game being solid I like Rose in cash game options for the week.

Overall record (11-3)

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Comments

  • BeeLo16

    Great article, one quote really stood out to me: “On a course where players who are not known for putting have succeeded” …. When building my stats model this week I planned on including SG:Putting & after reading this I went and checked what the last 5 winners of the SHO ranked in SG:Putting for the year in which they had won and only 1 of those 5 ranked inside the top 100 and was also the only 1 out of the 5 to actually gain strokes putting on the year!! Thanks for the insight, will definitely be “putting” less weight on “putting” this week. Good Luck!

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