PGA Double Up Challenge (11-4) Week 16: The Masters

Each week I play a line-up in the DraftKings $5 single entry double up and track the results here. I play multiple double ups, 50/50’s and head to head contests throughout the week and post my favourite double up line-up here. I’ve had success with these DFS formats over the past year and a half and with this blog I hope to improve my selection process through reflection while also hopefully helping out some of you. Feel free to follow me on twitter @_bschnarr https://twitter.com/_bschnarr for more sports content.

Shell Houston Open review:

In what has been by far my worst performance this year my team of Justin Rose (T15), Jhonattan Vegas (T15), Jimmy Walker (MDF), Adam Scott (MC), Ollie Schniederjans (MC) and J.B. Holmes (MC) was not even close to contention after the cut and handed me my second lost in cut events this season, the results can be seen here (https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/39016938?uc=711696471). Weeks like this are bound to happen every once in a while, hopefully I can turn it around this week for the first major of the year, the Masters.

The Masters preview:

With extensive coverage of Augusta already available here at RotoGrinders I wont go into too much detail here. However there are two important factors impacting cash games this week, soft pricing and the cut line. With top 50 plus ties and players within 10 of the leader making the cut in a field of 94 well over half will make the cut. With 15-ish players like Mike Weir and Sandy Lyle in the field that will realistically miss the cut the likelihood of your selections of making the cut are much higher than in regular tournaments. This paired with some soft pricing allows for a different cash game approach to be taken compared to most weeks. Generally in cash games it is tough to pay up for one of the higher priced guys and feel confident about your team but at this event it becomes necessary as 6/6 making the cut is not enough to guarantee a win. As a result a different approach will be taken in roster construction compared to usual events. With that being said I will still be looking for guys with good form, course history, price and stats that are key to succeeding at this event.

Picks:

Adam Hadwin ($6900)

Hadwin is looking like the cheap chalk play and for good reason. Hadwin has made all seven of his cuts this season, has three top tens and a win at the Valspar Championship that got him into the Masters. He has gained stroked in all four metrics (off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green, putting) this season and is seventh in putting on tour, a stat that is critical to success at the Masters. Hadwin is second on tour this season in scrambling and has also shown he can score in DraftKings format with the 16th highest birdie average. Overall Hadwins game matches up extremely well for Augusta. The biggest knock on Hadwin is that it is his first appearance at The Masters and first time players have a history of struggling here. I think that more or less has to do with first time players not being as good as the rest of the field and will instead take my chances on someone with a win and a T6 in his last two starts. With likely high ownership I am much more comfortable in betting on Hadwin and staying with the field then betting against him and being at a disadvantage if he performs up to his recent results.

Bill Haas ($7200)

Haas has been a staple of consistency over the past 7 Masters with no finish worse than T42. Although with no finishes inside of the top 12 Haas may not be a great GPP play he sets up to be a great cash game option. Haas has been 5/5 on cuts this season and showed excellent play in the WGC Match-play event coming T3 after losing to Jon Rahm in the semi finals. Like Hadwin, Haas has gained strokes on the field in all four metrics this season. At this price paired with Hadwin lots of money is available on your next four players and I feel that he is the safest option under $7200.

Tyrell Hatton ($7600)

Hatton showed North America he is a legitimate player last season with his T5 and T10 finishes at The Open Championship and the PGA Championship. Since then Hatton has continued to climb up the world ranks all the way to 15th coming into the Masters (sounds a lot like a fellow countrymen who had some success here last year). Hatton started the year off in good form and Europe and has continued it in North America. In six events this season Hatton has four top tens and his worst finish has been T17 in the WGC Match-play where he lost on a rules infraction. Just like Hadwin this is Hatton’s first time here but I’ll take the gamble again on one of the best players in the world right now.

Sergio Garcia ($8300)

Sergio is by no means the safest play here but his price is too good to resist. What makes Garcia appealing to me is he has the ability to score extremely well on Draft Kings. In his last eight starts at Augusta Garcia has made seven cuts. His recent form has been good with solid performances at both the Honda Classic and the WGC-Mexico events.

Jon Rahm ($8600)

My third (and final) Augusta rookie is Rahm. With his fifth top ten finish in his last five events Rahms current form is just too good to resist. Whats more impressive is four of the five top ten finished have been top 5’s, including a win. Rahm’s stats check out as he has gained stroked in all four metrics and is 2nd overall in shots gained tee-to-green this season. Not much else needs to be said as I feel like Rahm is a must-play at this price.

Dustin Johnson ($11300)

It is awfully tough picking against Jordan Spieth at the Masters but his missed cut at the Shell Houston Open paired with DJ winning his last three events makes me lean away from Spieth and Towards the DJ. There is no denying Johnson is the hottest player in the world right now. DJ has also been very impressive in recent years at the Masters with T4 and T6 finished the past two seasons, overall DJ has made 6/7 cuts at this event and shown in recent years he’s ready to win that green jacket.

EDIT

With DJ withdrawal paying up for Spieth and moving Hatton down to kuchar

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