Picking Six: Mastering the TD Parlay
A few weeks ago, while participating in the always active weekly NFL forum here on Rotogrinders, one user suggested an idea. In addition to our weekly NFL lineups, we should parlay those players with an anytime TD prop. This last week, I decided to try it and well, I failed pretty miserably. I hit Mark Andrews, and got 1 of the 2 Kamara TDs I needed, however Justin Jefferson, Josh Jacobs, Tyler Lockett, and Kyler Murray disappointed. Afterwards, I decided to set some rules for myself when picking these players.
So far I’ve come up with:
- Only players from the highest scoring teams of the week.
- No players coming off a big game in the previous week.
- No players who did not practice in full on Friday.
- No players selected as the “Beast of the Week.”
With these rules set, lets take a look at the slate.
The top 6 team totals for the week are:
- Kansas City Chiefs (33.25)
- Seattle Seahawks (32.00)
- Baltimore Ravens (31.50)
- Dallas Cowboys (31.50)
- San Francisco 49ers (30.25)
- Houston Texans (29.75)
Of these 6 teams, let’s remove the top performances from last week:
I want to remove these 6 players from my player pool because their opponents may game plan to slow down these players coming off a big performance. It might take away from my chances to remove a guy like Tyreek Hill (who has a TD in all 4 games this season), but this is a fun experiment, I will add or remove rules as I see fit to find the perfect recipe for success.
Next, let’s look at each team’s injury report:
- Chiefs: No significant injuries
- Seahawks: No significant injuries
- Ravens: Mark Andrews
- Cowboys: No significant injuries
- 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel
- Texans: No significant injuries
I want to remove these players from my choices, because Friday is the key practice to determine if a player will suit up Sunday. If a player is listed as questionable after Friday, they may be used in a limited fashion during the game (See Calvin Ridley against the Packers).
Finally, let’s look at this week’s “Beast of the Week.”
The Beast of the Week curse is well known around the forums. Although I have to give credit to Beer, his pick of Dalvin Cook last week has seemingly broken the curse. Is this a trend that is going to continue? or was it an outlier? His other picks this season have failed to find the end zone. Mixon in week 1, Henry in week 2, and Sanders in week 3.
Now we can look at our player options:
- Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire faces a Raiders D that have given up the most rushing TDs to opponents on the season. His goal-line ability to this point has been sub-par but the Chiefs keep feeding him the ball and those close-range scores should come throughout the season.
- Seahawks: DK Metcalf will always have strong TD equity any game he plays in. He’s a large downfield target with an MVP-Caliber QB throwing the ball to him. I like his chances to find paydirt against Minnesota, who have given up big games to Will Fuller, Kalif Raymond, and Davante Adams.
- Ravens: I’m going to go a little bit off the wall here and take Willie Snead. He’s been good for the Ravens catching all 10 of his targets, with 1 TD. Earlier in the week, I read that the Ravens want to get him the ball more, and I think we see him catch his 2nd TD this week.
- Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott is an elite RB with improved pass catching this season. The Cowboys rank 2nd in the league for rushing TDs, and while the Giants are middle of the pack against the run, they have given up big games to David Montgomery and the Niners RBs.
- 49ers: I like Jerick McKinnon with or without Raheem Mostert. If Mostert plays, McKinnon becomes a mediocre DFS play, but I still like him for my TD Parlay. The Dolphins have allowed 7 rushing TDs so far this season and the 49ers are one of the elite running teams in the league. Before Mostert was out, McKinnon was still getting red zone carries and passes. Mostert’s stats are inflated by 2 long TD plays, and while it’s possible that happens again, I think it’s more likely the Niners get a rushing score in the red zone from McKinnon.
- Texans: Another slightly off the wall play that I like is Darren Fells. Jordan Akins is the TE1 but he’s still in the concussion protocol and may be limited this week. Fells is a big athletic target and Jacksonville has given up scores to big targets in recent weeks. Mike Gesicki and Jonnu Smith have both found the end zone against Jacksonville and I know Watson likes to target his TEs in the end zone.
Let’s see if I can improve on my 1/6 score from last week. Who would you put in your 6 TD Parlay? Let me know in the comments and I may do a bonus RG Parlay.