Picking Six: Week 6 Adjustments

Last week I did a bit better than Week 4. I was able to hit 3 of the 6 needed TDs, which unfortunately doesn’t get us anywhere. Fells, Zeke, and Metcalf hit paydirt, while Snead, Mckinnon, and Helaire failed me. Last week, I had 4 rules that I built my player pool with:

  1. Only players from the highest scoring teams of the week.
  2. No players coming off a big game in the previous week.
  3. No players who did not practice in full on Friday.
  4. No players selected as the “Beast of the Week.”

For week 6, I’m going to remove the first 2 rules. Obviously, week 5 had some surprising results, but the highest scoring teams of the week were the Dolphins, Raiders, Steelers, Cowboys, Giants, and the Browns. Only 1 team from the projected team totals was on this list. With the 2nd rule, I removed players like Mark Andrews, Tyreek Hill, and Chris Carson who all found the end zone. For week 6, I’m going to put more of a focus on player/team matchups. My new set of rules are:

  1. Only players with plus WR/CB or team defense matchups.
  2. Opposing team must be bottom 10 in Receiving/Rushing defense.
  3. No players who did not practice in full on Friday.
  4. No players selected as “Beast of the Week.”

Let’s start by looking at some of the top WR/CB matchups:

  1. Laviska Shenault vs. Desmond Trufant. Trufant has only played in 2 games so far this season, but he’s allowed 7 receptions on 9 targets and has a PFF grade of 32.8. EDIT: Trufant is out, but Detroit’s secondary is still terrible.
  2. Adam Thielen vs Kendall Sheffield. Wherever Thielen lines up on the field, he will get a plus matchup against Atlanta’s terrible secondary. Atlanta leads the league in TDs through the air.
  3. Chase Claypool vs Cleveland. Claypool will lineup all over the field. Last week, the Steelers showed how they plan to use him in the red zone. Although 4 TDs are unlikely to happen again, I wouldn’t be surprised if he found the end zone once again. The Browns are tied for 3rd in the league in opposing TDs through the air with 12.

Let’s also take a look at the top RB matchups this week:

  1. Jets (Myles Gaskin) have allowed 9 TDs so far this season.
  2. Football Team (Devonta Freeman), Eagles (Mark Ingram), Dolphins (Not Le’Veon Bell), and the Panthers (David Montgomery) have allowed 8 TDs so far this season.
  3. Titans (David Johnson), Panthers (David Montgomery), Lions (James Robinson), and Bengals (Jonathan Taylor) lead the league in YPC allowed.

From this group, I like Robinson, Taylor, and Myles Gaskin the most.

Let’s look at notable injuries this week that may improve a player’s TD equity:

  1. Diontae Johnson is OUT. This is a boost to Chase Claypool.
  2. Davante Adams is IN, but will likely be matched up with Carlton Davis who has managed to shutdown big bodied receivers dating back to last year.
  3. Dalvin Cook is OUT. Alexander Mattison will take on a bigger role against a bad Falcons D.

And lastly, the Beast of the Week is Derrick Henry

Finally let’s put together a team of 6 to build out this TD Parlay.

  1. Adam Thielen once again gets a great matchup against the terrible Atlanta secondary. He’s been a key end-zone target for Minnesota this year and I like his chances to score in this game.
  2. Chase Claypool coming off what will likely be the best game of his career, gets another chance to show he belongs in the NFL against Cleveland. With Diontae Johnson out, he should assume a bigger workload, and Big Ben will continue to find him near the goal-line.
  3. Jonathan Taylor gets a matchup with the Bengals who have given up big yardage to opposing backs all season. With Indy’s penchant to run near the goal-line, I like Taylor’s chances this week.
  4. Although I did not mention him in the write up above, another plus matchup this week is DeVante Parker against the Jets. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fitzmagic appears and steamrolls his old team and I like Parker’s chances to find the end zone.
  5. I like TJ Hockenson to score against Jacksonville, who have given up TDs to Tight Ends in 3 of their 5 games this season.
  6. Will Fuller leads the Texans Receivers in red zone targets and touchdowns this season. With the Titans playing on a short week after a blowout win, I like Houston to keep this game competitive and Fuller has a good chance to be a part of that.

About the Author

Comments

  • FitFantasyGod

    I love the setup of your article, removing the rules for your player pool. Very cool approach to the article! Check out my NFL Showdown Strategy Article I just published if you are interested!

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