PlateIQ Stat of the Day: 6/29/2018
Note: Unless otherwise noted, stats referenced in this article will always be from the 2017 and 2018 (to date) seasons. Rather than mention it every time I cite a stat, I’ll just use this by default and point it out if I refer to a different time period.
With so many excellent high-end options at pitcher tonight, most will attempt to pair one of the studs with a cheap to mid-tier pitcher. One of the most popular choices tonight will be Rich Hill, who is at home against the Rockies. Vegas has installed him as a -160 favorite with a O/U of just 7.5 runs. This means the Rockies implied run total is under 3.5 runs. So lock and load Rich Hill? Let’s take a look.
Stat of the Day: Rich Hill throws his curveball over 41% of the time and is allowing just a .302 wOBA and 26% Hard Hit rate. Against curveballs since 2016, the Rockies have several hitters (DLM, Blackmon, Arenado, Story, Murphy) with above average (.333+) wOBAs. Blackmon and Story also pack ISO’s of over .300 against curveballs during that time span.
What do we do with this information? The first thing to consider about these numbers for the Rockies is the “Coors Field Effect”. Curveballs are going to curve less in altitude, leading to a lot of hard hit balls. But only half of their games are at Coors Field, and the majority of their division games are played in pitcher friendly parks like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego. So I think Coors explains a little, but not all of the success against curveballs.
A look at the pitcher-vs-batter data isn’t overly helpful because it’s a pretty small sample, so not a ton of help there.
Then there’s the blister and pitch count concerns. Dave Roberts is notoriously cautious with his starting pitchers and Hill has a history of blisters on his throwing hand. He hasn’t thrown over 100 pitches all season, and will likely be in the 85-90 pitch range tonight, assuming he pitches well.
So where do I stand on Hill tonight? Due to the expected high ownership, I’ll likely look for a pivot. Yes, there is a path to 6 innings with 6 K’s while only allowing a run or two. But there’s also plenty of less desirable outcomes. I’ll fade and try some other cheap options to pair with deGrom/Cole/Bauer.
Good luck tonight!
