Plays of the Day - 7.18.19

Check out my first post for a description of each category

It is important to note that I am not necessarily recommending each of these picks every day. The goal of this series is to use the same criteria each day to pick players in each category and then see which categories have the most success over time.

Past Picks

The table below shows how each pick has done so far this year. As of now nine of the ten picks have been paying off their price tags often enough to get us in the money. This data set is based on 24 days worth of picks.

The third column represents the % of the time the pick finishes above the cash line for DK GPP’s. GPP cash lines typically only include the top 20% of scores so anything above that is actually a net positive pick.

Play Avg. PT/$ vs. Needed PT/$ Success Rate
Target the Chalk -0.1 33%
BVP 0.0 43%
Dream Matchup -0.7 19%
Pitch Type -0.7 32%
Reverse Splits -0.1 32%
Ride the Heat -0.7 57%
GBHFBP +0.2 60%
FBHGBP -0.8 29%
Too Cheap -0.2 36%
SFPOTD -0.2 31%

Top Peformer: After going 2-for-3 on Wednesday, the Ground Ball Hitter Fly Ball Pitcher Play of the Day remains the top performing pick with a 60% success rate. This category has a 25 player sample size. I really believe it’s a thing. Batters with high ground ball rates and high hard contact rates against pitchers with high fly ball rates make for great plays.

Relegation: The Dream Matchup Play of the Day is the strangest thing to me. I typically base the selection off of the player’s overall PIQ rating and really just aim to pick great hitters against bad pitchers. Somehow this pick must be the DFS equivalent to the Madden curse, because these guys stink every single day. Yesterday I put the curse on Daniel Murphy and Cody Bellinger. They combined for 2 points. Today will be the final day of the Dream Matchup Play of the Day. A brand new pick will debut tomorrow.

Yesterday’s Picks

Wednesday was a rare day with two slates of 6 games or more and I really enjoyed it. The early slate was decent and somewhat profitable. Sonny Gray is still just so damn good. I don’t know what happened but he is so legit at this point and needs to be priced as an ace. People won’t remember Nolan Ryan’s name by the end of Sonny Gray ’s career.

Apparently Yu Darvish is somewhat back too. He looked great yesterday and he can be one of the top pitchers in baseball when he has his command. You just never know when he’s going to have it. He had it yesterday. Homer Bailey was the other solid pitcher on the slate and that can be attributed to the fact that the Seattle Mariners are so incredibly bad that they can make anybody good.

The late slate was terrible. I fell in love with the bats that Jesse Chavez allowed me to play andddd we all know how that went. I knew he would struggle with the righties but I didn’t expect him to get tagged by the lefties the way he did. The main slate was over for me halfway through the first inning of the DBacks rangers game.

The last note I’ll make is that the Chicago White Sox are so freaking bad right now. The last three games they’ve made Jakob Junis, Glenn Sparkman, and Danny Duffy look like Cy Young candidates. These guys are playing like a bunch of cowards and we should continue to target them with any pitcher until further notice.

Today’s Picks

I tried this app last night that allegedly tracks your sleep using the microphone on your phone and it told me that I slept like dogshit. I don’t know if the app actually works or not, but it makes sense that I would have slept poorly because I think I was dreaming about Jesse Chavez. Anyway, I feel horrendous today and that has consistently resulted in fantastic picks. I’m guaranteeing TWO (2) 30-point performances tonight out of the plays of the day. You’re not gonna want to miss out. Let’s go.

The Target the Chalk Play of the Day

Harold Castro vs. Trevor Bauer
After what Clevinger did to this Tigers team yesterday, there is no doubt Bauer will be popular today. I’m not saying he shouldn’t be popular and I’m not saying I won’t play him, but Bauer has shown that he can be somewhat vulnerable against LHB this season (.362 wOBA, .242 ISO) and Harold Castro is a lefty who should bat second in this lineup tonight. He fits the mold of a hard-hitting ground-ball guy against a fly-ball pitcher and he only needs 10 points to pay off his $3,400 salary. It’s ugly but I love me some Harry Castro tonight.

The BVP Play of the Day

Brett Gardner vs. Charlie Morton
I almost picked Gardner last time he faced off against Chucky Morton but I decided against it. Naturally he hit a cheese missile in his first AB in that game. He’s an absurd 8-for-14 with 2 doubles and 3 dingers in his career against Morton. That’s a 1.982 OPS in 16 plate appearances. This is just such a ridiculous level of dominance that I have no choice but to play him tonight.

Note: I highly recommend looking through BvP tonight when you’re making your lineups. There are a lot of familiar matchups throughout the league tonight and BvP can be useful as a deciding factor in 50/50 situations.

The Dream Matchup Play of the Day

Yordan Alvarez vs. Matt Harvey
Yesterday I was checking out at the store with seven total items. I was struggling to hold everything as I walked up and set them on the counter in front of the cashier. She began scanning the items and then looked up at me and asked “Do you want a bag?” I was stunned. Of course I want a bag lady! I have seven things! Do you expect me to walk to my car with seven things in my hands?? I kept my cool and calmly responded “yes please”, but I couldn’t help but wonder if there was anybody in the world who was worse at their job than this lady.

Then I saw Matt Harvey was pitching tonight and that answered my question. I can’t believe this guy gets paid money to pitch baseballs for a living. It is just absurd that this man is a Major League starter at this point in his career. He has given up a .408 wOBA and a .273 ISO this season to left-handed hitters. He only has a 38% ground ball rate and is giving up a ridiculous 52% hard contact rate. It’s no secret how good Yordan Alvarez is at baseball. He has a .460 wOBA and a .348 ISO this season vs. RHP and gets a matchup with one of the worst pitchers in baseball. I will actually genuinely be stunned if Yordan doesn’t hit a moonball tonight.

The Pitch Type Play of the Day

Derek Dietrich vs. Dakota Hudson
Hudson throws a shitload of sinkers (41% to lefties) and Dietrich loves hitting sinkers (.453 CXwOBA, .228 ISO since 2016). This is kind of a two-for-one deal, because Hudson’s sinkers make him a massive ground ball guy and Dietrich is a huge fly ball hitter (48% vs. RHP this year). Dakota Hudson is due for a performance that reminds us that he kind of sucks. I think Dietrich will be more than willing to refresh our memories.

The Reverse Splits Play of the Day

Nelson Cruz vs. Mike Fiers
Fiers is such a fraud. What an asshole. He’s giving up a 43% fly ball rate and a 39% hard contact rate to righties this season yet he has limited RHB to a .291 wOBA. Something isn’t adding up to me and I think that means this guy is due to get blown up. Cruz is the best right-handed hitter on this Twins team against right-handed pitching (.381 wOBA, .255 ISO this year) and I think that means he’s ready to take Fiers deep today. Fier up your Twins stacks today (credit to me for the hilarious pun).

The Ride the Heat Play of the Day

Tyler O’Neill vs. Tanner Roark
O’Neill is piping hot right now with 4 dong bags in his last 5 games and his price still hasn’t completely caught up at $4,400. It has been rising steadily over the last few games and it will likely continue to rise after another solid performance yesterday. I want to get him while he’s still affordable and in a less than terrifying matchup with Tanner Roark today.

Note: It doesn’t hurt that Roark loves throwing his sinker to righties and Tyler O’Neill eats sinkers for breakfast.

The Ground Ball Hitter Fly Ball Pitcher Play of the Day

Luis Arraez vs. Mike Fiers
This is a pretty perfect matchup for this play today:

  • Fiers has a 40% fly ball rate this season which is one of the highest on the slate today.
  • Arraez is great against righties but his ISO number doesn’t show it (.438 wOBA, .171 ISO)
  • He has a 46% hard contact rate against righties but only a 32% fly ball rate. This explains the discrepancy between his wOBA and ISO since he hits it hard but not in the air.
  • Arraez is only $3,900 today which can really be attributed to his lack of power this season.

I say it every day, but it works so I’ll keep saying it. Arraez hits the shit out of the ball but doesn’t lift it enough to do a ton of damage. Fiers has a higher fly ball rate and should help him get it in the air. He is an awesome play today and provides some pretty solid salary relief.

Bonus Play: Roberto Perez vs. Matt Boyd
I really don’t like to target Matt Body but this is a really nice spot for Perez. I didn’t realize this, but Boyd is giving up 45% fly balls and 39% hard contact vs. RHP this season. Perez has a ridiculously high 58% hard contact rate and a ridiculously low 27% fly ball rate vs. LHP this season. I love Bobby P for all the same reasons I love Arraez today. Let’s lift some balls boys.

The Fly Ball Hitter Ground Ball Pitcher Play of the Day

Eduardo Escobar vs. Zach Davies
Davies has done an alright job of keeping the ball on the ground with only a 34% fly ball rate on the season. Eddie Escobar is not into the idea of hitting the ball on the ground. He has a 45% fly ball rate vs. RHP this season and will look to continue to roll off his double dong performance from last night in this matchup against Davies. You’ll have to pay a premium for big Ed but I think he’s worth it on this slate.

Too Damn Cheap Play of the Day

Michael Brantley, $4,500 vs. Matt Harvey
I will gladly reiterate the fact that Harvey is a dumpster fire against lefties this season and Brantley is one of the best left-handed hitters in the league. He should be in the mid-5k range for this matchup and instead he’s priced all the way down at $4,500. He’ll be popular but it’s not bad to eat some chalk when it’s in a matchup with the pitching equivalent of stubbing your toe. Matt Harvey is the worst.

Sick Fuck Play of the Day

Jesse Winker

Play Player
Target the Chalk Harold Castro
BVP Brett Gardner
Dream Matchup Yordan Alvarez
Pitch Type Derek Dietrich
Reverse Splits Nelson Cruz
Ride the Heat Tyler O’Neill
GBHFBP Luis Arraez & Roberto Perez
FBHGBP Eduardo Escobar
Too Cheap Michael Brantley
SFPOTD Jesse Winker

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