Plays of the Day - 9.12.19

Check out my first post for a description of each category

It is important to note that I am not necessarily recommending each of these picks every day. The goal of this series is to use the same criteria each day to pick players in each category and then see which categories have the most success over time.

Past Picks

The table below shows how each pick has done so far this year. As of now all ten picks have been paying off their price tags often enough to get us in the money. The sample sizes for each category are shown below.

The second column represents the % of the time the pick finishes above the cash line for DK GPP’s. GPP cash lines typically only include the top 20% of scores so anything above that is actually a net positive pick.

Play Success Rate Sample Size
Value Stack 32% 22
FBP Stack 33% 9
Mini Stack 54% 13
Target the Chalk 37% 38
BVP 35% 46
Ride the Heat 34% 35
GBHFBP 54% 52
Too Cheap 35% 49
Hard Contact 29% 24
Lefty Masher 23% 17

Top Peformer: The Ground Ball Hitter Fly Ball Pitcher Play of the Day
If you’re taking one pick away from this article I would suggest the GBHFBP Play of the Day. This category aims to find guys who get a lot of hard contact but have high ground ball rates in matchups with pitchers who have high fly ball rates. In a 52 player sample size, this pick has been successful 54% of the time.

Today’s Picks

I’m back baby. It’s been a while since I posted one of these bad boys but today’s 7 game early slate seemed like a perfect opportunity to get back in the game. I have transitioned my brain to football and have barely paid any attention to baseball, and I think that will give me the clarity I need to make this cute little slate my bitch. Let’s go.

Value Stack of the Day

Colorado Rockies vs. Miles Mikolas

I call this guy Miles Geekolas because he’s just a flat out dork. Sure he can get some ground balls, but he’s really a below average pitcher against lefties (.347 wOBA, 47% hard contact). There are a whopping SIX lefties in this Rockies projected lineup today, and the only two righties happen to be none other than Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado. Coors is the obvious option which is usually not my style, but I think people will gravitate to the St. Louis side of things and I’ll be pouncing on the Rockies. Here’s how I’ll stack this bitch up:

This is an all-or-nothing stack because of how expensive these guys are today, but I’m hoping they can get to Mikolas early and then tee off on the Cards bullpen. I’m not looking for a 6-4 win. I want to see these guys put up 13 runs in this spot.

Fly Ball Pitcher Stack of the Day

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jeff Samardzija
I’m pretty sure that every time the Pirates bats have done well this season it’s been against a fly ball pitcher. This team gets a lot more hard contact than you’d expect but they just struggle to get it in the air. The Shark can help them with that. He’s given up a 41% hard contact rate and a 48% fly ball rate to left-handed hitters this year and figures to face 5-6 of them in this Pittsburgh lineup. It’s a shitty stadium for left-handed power, but that should make them extremely low-owned for a 7 game slate. Here’s how I’ll stack it:

The alternative to stacking the Pirates is not stacking the Pirates, which just seems like a preposterously bad idea on this slate.

Mini Stack of the Day

New York Yankees vs. Matt Boyd
Matty Boyd has given up a 47% fly ball rate and a 43% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this year, and the first three hitters he’ll face in this Yankees lineup are righties with high ground ball rates. That’s not good. Not good at all. Boyd is a solid pitcher but I think he’s getting his shit rocked today. These are your guys:

Full stack it if you’re feeling spicy, but I like these guys who get ground balls and hard contact the best in this spot.

Target the Chalk Play of the Day

Ryan O’Hearn vs. Lucas Giolito
It’s early in the slate to predict who’s going to be chalky, but I’d assume Yu Darvish and Lucas Giolito will be two of the more popular guys. I don’t love to target either of these guys, but if I’m looking for a low-owned affordable one-off then I think it’s gotta be Ryan O’Hearn in this spot. He’s homered in back-to-back games and there’s no reason to believe he can’t hit a cheese pistol off Mr. Giolito today.

BVP Play of the Day

Ronny Rodriguez vs J.A. Happ
Whaddayasay about a little RonRod bein 2-for-3 with a dongbag off Happ in his career? Only $3,700 with 2B/SS eligibility. Oh gimme allllllll the Ronny today in a game in which he’s literally guaranteed to hit two dingers.

Ride the Heat Play of the Day

Todd Frazier vs. Alex Young
Two doubles on Tuesday night and two homers on Wednesday night have Toddy “the body” Frazier riding into Thursday’s game absolutely scorching hot. I honestly can’t remember the last time this guy didn’t have at least two extra base hits in a game. He’ll continue that today against Alex Young, whose only redeeming quality is that he can get some ground balls against righties.

Note: The one thing I love about Alex Young is that when you see “”(player-popup #alex-young)A. Young”:/players/alex-young-1127786” you immediately assume it’s Alex and then when you check what his first name is you’re actually correct.

Ground Ball Hitter Fly Ball Pitcher Play of the Day

Aaron Judge vs. Matt Boyd
I already mentioned this so it’s honestly a little annoying that I have to explain myself again you needy bastards, but I suppose I can give some details. Boyd has given up a 47% fly ball rate and a 43% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season and Judge has a 58% hard contact rate and a 31% fly ball rate against left-handed pitching. It’s the perfect recipe as long as the Fudge Monster doesn’t strike out every time he gets up today.

Too Damn Cheap Play of the Day

Dexter Fowler, $4,500 vs. Timothy Melville
If Dexta Fowla leads off here against Timmy Melville then he should just be far more expensive than $4,500. You’re looking at 4-5 AB’s for Fowler, who will maintain the platoon advantage throughout the game. The kid is coming off a 2-hit performance on Wednesday and will start this game by facing a guy who’s given up a .358 wOBA to LHB this season. I think this man’s due for an absolute bing bong today.

Hard Contact Play of the Day

Miguel Cabrera vs. J.A. Happ
This is just an absolute no-brainer today. J.A. Happ is absolutely terrible at baseball and has given up a 41% hard contact rate and an 89.2 mph average exit velocity to righties this year. Miggy has a 50% hard contact rate and a 93.0 mph average exit velocity against lefties on the season. He’s gonna rip the living piss out of Happ’s weak ass bullshit pitches.

Lefty Masher of the Day

Jon Berti vs. Gio Gonzalez
Oh give it a rest, DraftKings. Nobody is paying $4,800 for Jon freaking Berti. Besides me. Guy can flat out rake and he’s a certified lefty masher. I guarantee 2 dingers in this matchup or I’ll literally reimburse all of your entry fees*

Play Player
Value Stack Rockies
FBP Stack Pirates
Mini Stack Yankees
Target the Chalk Ryan O’Hearn
BVP Ronny Rodriguez
Ride the Heat Todd Frazier
GBHFBP Aaron Judge
Too Cheap Dexter Fowler
Hard Contact Miguel Cabrera
Lefty Masher Jon Berti

*Sure won’t

About the Author

  • Matt Shanahan (mshanahan)

  • Matt Shanahan is an engineer by trade and firmly believes in data-driven analytics. He grew up in Pennsylvania and graduated from the University of Pittsburgh. His betting strategy is to develop theories, create models to test those theories, and then collect data to see what works and what doesn’t.

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