Prop Shop 06/15

I love playing DFS. As part of my daily process I look at Vegas player props. This of course can be a treasure trove of information for DFS purposes.

Sometimes when analyzing these props I see lines that jump out to me. This blog will be about those lines that I see on a daily basis that I think stand out in one way or another. Since I live in NY I can’t yet wager on sports online but sometimes do make the trip to PA to make my wagers. As such I generally pull my daily props from SugarHouse Casino which is the book I mostly use as of now and this will be where I get the lines for these props unless otherwise noted.

Total Hits Ahmed Rosario over 1.5 +165

We all know that Baltimore starter Matt Harvey is just not good anymore. And he particularly has issues with left handed hitters. Guess who is Cleveland’s best hitter? Of course that is the switch hitting Jose Ramirez who generally hits third in the order.

But in front of Ramirez in the two spot sits Rosario. During the last two weeks in 41 at bats Rosario has 15 hits good for a .366 average (yes I used advanced stats too but wanted to keep it simple here). Harvey and the Baltimore bullpen are not going to want to get beat by Ramirez. So guess what that means for Rosario? He is going to see plenty of pitches to hit. Harvey is not great against right handers either and well the Baltimore pen is also not full of arms that strike fear into hitters. I love Rosario for DFS (3900 DK and 3100 FD) and also really like the over 1.5 hits tonight at +165.

Total Strikeouts Brett Anderson over 3.5 +125

I know. I know. Brett Anderson does not strike anybody out. And I also am well aware that he has faced this same Cincinnati team twice recently. First on May 22nd where he went 5 innings and struck out 3. Also just last week on June 9th where he went just 3 innings striking out 0.

Oh and guess what Anderson has only gone over 3 strikeouts once this year when he struck out 4 Cubs in his first start on April 5th.

Yikes. And I like the over 3.5? Why?

Well something seems off to me. This Cincinnati lineup does have strikeouts. Looking back to data including numbers from 2020 and 2021 here are some strikeout percentages against lefties. Jesse Winker 27%, Tyler Stephenson 28%, Joey Votto 26% and Eugenio Suarez 29%. If Aristides Aquino cracks the lineup that is another high strikeout bat. And there is also the pitcher’s spot.

Anderson has had plenty of 3 strikeout games this year. I think he can get to 4 tonight with this Reds lineup he is seeing for the 3rd time in less than a month and clear that prop.

Home Run Jake Cronenworth +600

I am not going out on a limb by saying someone is hitting a home run in the Coors game tonight. Well with a total at 11.5 I am guessing we see a few balls go yard tonight.

Chi Chi Gonzalez is not a good pitcher. And he only has a 13% strikeout rate to left handed hitters this year. Cronenworth has a solid wOBA of .341 against right handed pitchers on the year and only a 15% strikeout rate against righties on the year. Translation. He is going to put the ball in play and probably going to hit it hard when he does. It is hot in Coors and I like his chances on launching one out tonight especially at 6-1 odds. And I love Cronenworth as a way to get exposure to this Padres offense tonight at probably fairly low ownership on both DK and FD.

Comments

  • FitFantasyGod

    Love the unique content, definitely not a ton of stuff written about player props. It can always be good for identifying good plays! Check out my MLB article if you want! Either way, keep up the writing!

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