RBC Canadian Open

This time it was the Memorial Tournament. For a change we had a pretty solid field, or at least it looked that way to begin with. Well if you were following the tournament you quickly realized who came to play and who wanted to take off for the weekend. Of course it was no other than some of the favorites who didn’t want to play. Yes, I’m looking at you my top rated player for this particular tournament Rory McIlroy. And even worse than him was Tony Finau. Kuchar made us think he had a chance but just couldn’t find any birdies. Curse Kuchar but he was so high owned it could have helped. At least my 2nd rated golfer (Cantlay) won but with the weekend my leftover golfers had it was for naught. He played a great final round and deserved to win. And since classic didn’t go well I had a nice final day showdown playing Scott, Cantlay, and Streelman to take some of the losses away. Congrats to those who prospered!

We now get the RBC Canadian Open taking place in Ancaster, Ontario. This is a par 70 course that measures at ~ 6,966. So as you can see this is not really a “bomber’s course” so there are plenty of golfers that fit here. You want to be accurate here as the rough can be penal. With it being so short this a 2nd shot course so approach stats are key. There isn’t much course history here and I only considered the 2012 edition played here. So let’s take a look and see what we got.

Key Stats
I’m going to be honest here, I typically let Noto do the grunt work and start with his stats from the PGA First Look here at RG (here). I had some of his stats to use down and have added a few myself. It might keep seeming like I’m using similar stats every week (which I kind of am) but I feel these are just some of the more important ones and help with “scoring” the most.
1. SG (a)
2. bogey avoidance
3. SG (p)
4. BoB
5. proximity – This is pretty much a two shot course so the closer you are to the hole the better chance you have to make birdies. Pretty simple but maybe too simple as Noto breaks it down by yardage and % of distance to split (i.e. 30% 200-225 and so on)
6. GIR – Like I said this is a second shot course so helps reinforce good approach shots
7. par 3 scoring – This is a stat to use because there are 4 par 3s here and they are a bit longer and can be difficult.
8. SG (t2g) – I used this stat because I wanted to encompass every shot from tee to green and think this is one of the better measures for accuracy. You don’t need the driver as much here so it is more about where you play from than how long you hit it. Not sure it matters in this category but there are plenty of doglegs here as well
9. par 4 scoring – I just used this because there are the most par 4s on the course and some of them will be the birdie holes as there are only 2 par 5s.

All my stats are from 2019 this time. Also Mike’s (smartgolfbets) spreadsheet is here this week.

The Plays
I’m going to get the easy ones out of the way first. For now I’m just going to list in order of the top guys I like who should be no brainers to have somewhere. First we have DJ, Kuchar, and JT . That’s not to say I don’t like others in their range, these are just my favorites. Now for the “others”…

Furyk (8.8K) – 14th in SG (a), 5th in bogey avoidance, 2nd in proximity, 13th in GIR, 25th in SG (t2g), and 8th par 4 scoring
Conners (7.5K) – 16th in SG (a), 17th in proximity, 5th in GIR, 26th in par 3 scoring, and 16th in SG (t2g); Also he’s Canadian!!!
Piercy (9.3K) – 10th in bogey avoidance, 8th in GIR, 3rd in par 3 scoring, and 4th in par 4 scoring
Palmer (8.2K) – 15th in BoB, 11th in GIR, and 8th in par 4 scoring
Lashley (6.7K) – Here we go again with the play that makes me queasy… 25th in SG (a), 14th in bogey avoidance, 16th in proximity, 26th in GIR, and 8th in par 4 scoring

A little less to like than a normal week and you’ll see I’ve kind of skipped or have low exposure to some “top” guys. Also pick some Canadians here!

The Possible Under Owned
Lowry (8.6K)
Cauley (8.4K)
Harman (7.6K)
Willet (7.4K)
Stallings (7.2K)
Malnati (7.1K)

Taking a Stab
Connelly (6.4K)
Wagner (6.8K)
Henry (6.3K)
Saunders (6.6K)

Others I Like
Cook (8.1K)
Watney (7.5K)
Taylor (7.1K)

Fades
Brooks (11.7K) – Not a great reason but does Brooks show up for “amateur” contests? Yeah, yeah, yeah not an am but it’s not a MAJOR either.
Rory (11.2K) – Expensive last week grudge
Sergio (9.5K) – I might regret this one I just don’t see it.
Bradley (8.5K) – Another recent from fade

Bonus for My Yahoos
Lowry again (32) – So on DK he’s 8.6K so 32 seemed pretty low. He’s in good recent form right now.
Cauley (27) – Pretty much same story as Lowry but you can add in some course history and par 3 scoring
Hughes (23) – Canadian, good recent form, and 7.5K on DK

Let me know what you think! Otherwise good luck and make that money. Can it be Thursday yet?!

About the Author

Comments

  • denominator

    Like the article! Yahoo! pricing is so different…

  • hautalak

    Thank you! And yes, Yahoo is a whole different animal. They make you “love” your lineup so much to more often than not see those “mispricings” not work out. I’ve had varied success on Yahoo. I do like that ownership is so spread and you can get guys lower than expected always. Good luck!

  • panters

    Nice article once again Kyle! Always gives me more insight than I’m able to discover on my own!

  • hautalak

    Thank you! Hoping for a good week as I’m taking on the forum.

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