Saturday Morning Musings
We are just over 24 hours away from the start of the Sunday main slate for week 2. Woohoo! Lineups are being created, edited, tinkered with and completely scrapped. Our confidence levels ebb and flow over this period as we find out more information that confirms our choices as well as oppose them. One of the underappreciated aspects of DFS NFL (and all sports for that matter) is what impact the coaches have on DFS players usage. For instance, it is generally appreciated that Matt Patricia of the Lions is an idiot. Maybe not as a big bearded person when he goes to the grocery store. But, for sure Patricia is an idiot when he steps onto the field and is the person in charge of making decisions for the entire team. Not only did the Lions blow a big lead versus the Cardinals in a game that ended up in a tie (a tie? Geez), but Kerryon Johnson lost 11 carries to old man, constantly cut CJ Anderson. So, with TJ Hockenson as a very cheap, likely very popular TE option this week, can we truly trust that Patricia will make sure he gets 8-10 high value targets this week? See what I mean. There are many coaches across the NFL that one can’t trust and some that we can. Let’s take a look at a few more of these types of coaches and see what this may mean for the week 2 slate.
1) John Gruden and the Raiders offense. Yesterday, I mentioned that the Raiders offense would be chalky this weekend and could potentially be a shaky choice. So, can we trust a coach whose haircut looks more and more like his hair challenged owner to do the “right thing” on offense Sunday? A coach who cowtowed to Antonio Brown and ended up losing him for nothing? Will he keep Josh Jacobs on the field for third downs or will we see a ton more of Jalen Richard this week? Will he put David Carr in good situations to pass the ball and get it in the hands of the teams’ true playmakers? Or will the Raiders get rolled 52-13 by the Chiefs this weekend? This spot intrigues me and scares me at the same time. I’m guessing my exposure to the Raiders will decrease between now and tomorrow at 1pm.
2) Andy Reid and the Kansas City offense. On the other side of the Raiders is the scoring juggernaut known as the Kansas City Chiefs. With TyFreak Hill on the shelf, can we trust Andy Reid to game plan such that the ball is constantly in the hands of remaining playmakers like Kelce, Watkins and Damien Williams? Or will the Chiefs use LeStink McCoy too much and rotate 4-5 WRs in there all game long? I tend to trust Reid, so I feel comfortable with the main man Chiefs onslaught, but I will also probably have a couple naked Mahomes lineups.
3) Bill Belichick and the New England Run Offense. The Dolphins are terrible. Terrible on offense. Terrible on defense. Terrible in the front office. Perhaps terrible at head coach. And they are especially terrible on defense against the run. So, can we trust the Patriots to actually use Sony Michel this week in a likely favorable game script? Or will Tom Brady and the big 3 receivers (Edelman, Gordon, AB) tear the game up in the passing game? Or will this be a Rex Burkhead game? I just don’t know. I can’t trust Belichick, but I will use Michel in a couple lineups on Fanduel most likely and will probably fill in a couple DK lineups with super cheap Sexy Rexy at under 4k.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars versus the Houston Texans. This game could be high scoring and a source of fantasy goodness. I know both teams are mediocre at best with two overrated defenses. And I know I don’t trust Bill O’Brien which makes me think the Jags could be a nice source of lower owned value here. Leonard Fournette especially looks tasty. However, can I trust the Jags the keep this game close enough that Leonard Fournette gets 20-25 touches? Can I trust the Texans to focus on Hopkins and Fuller rather than completely spread the ball around? Do I think the Texans take control of this game early which could lead to a favorable game script for Carlos Hyde and the Texans running game? And finally, in a close game, can I trust the Jags defense to show up and run roughshod over this swiss cheese Texans offensive line to rack up sacks and maybe a couple turnovers? I will likely wake up tomorrow thinking about this game, so here’s hoping that I get it right.
Good luck in all your contests tonight as well as tomorrow.