Sharpe Insight: Vegas Lines NFL Week 2
When looking at Week 2 we have a few separate angles to look at for the NFL. Maybe you like to consider the winners of NFL games and play parlays. I’ll give you a few parlay picks and why I think they relate to NFL DFS.
Tennessee (+7) (58% Straight Up)
Over (47.5) (81%)
What I’ve noticed so far this season is that the games that appear to be shootouts end up being shootouts. When you have suspect defenses and potent offenses, in a passing league, you can feel good about points being scored. We have that scenario here with TEN/DET. The Titans played one of the best defenses last week in MIN, and should get a matchup upgrade with the Lions, who allowed over 30 to IND last week. Mariota is in play here and makes a fine GPP target. Last year, early on, Mariota won a Millionaire Maker or two, and you can get him at say 1%-5% ownership. I also like TEN to cover the spread and for the game to go over, because we’re looking at 81% of the money coming in on the Over, and 58% of the money on TEN, to win Straight Up. We also saw what DET can do on offense with Jones, Ebron, Roddick, and Tate…who should feast on a TEN defense that struggles vs. the pass. All things add up to a close game won in the final minutes with lots of points being scored.
Jacksonville (+145) (96% Straight Up)
Over 47.5 (76%)
Here’s my solid lock of the week. Whenever you see a team as the underdog getting 96% of the straight up bets, you know you have a hidden gem. The books have SD at -165, despite Keenan Allen injury and Rivers’ marked lessened production while Allen is out. You’re looking at sizable differences in production. JAX also sports an improved defense and almost pulled off an upset over GB, one of the best offenses AND defenses in this league currently. 76% is on the Over, and this makes sense, but I do fear that SD may struggle to get anything going. Though, if they can put up 20 points, and Jax can put up 35, you’re still getting a 55 point total. Last week, the top scoring projected games with high over totals, all went over, and all had the majority of money coming in on the over. We have something sharp and actionable here and not just noise. I don’t want any SD this week as they are too varied and unpredictable with targets now, however Gates makes a solid play, and Woodhead is one of the few determined Chargers that plays well with/without Allen. The guy obviously has a lot of mental toughness and can play hard whenever.