Six Pitchers to Target on Sunday 7/13/14
Hope everyone is having a great weekend. I had some great feedback from writing the weekend content a couple weeks ago, so I wanted to start a new Sunday blog. I’m going to target 6 pitchers, 3 to use as a pitcher today, and 3 pitchers to target with hitters. The first thing I do daily is look at starting pitchers, and I hope to get your Sunday morning research started on the right foot. I’m not going to be writing up the COL/MIN game, but all the hitters are in play in this game.
Julio Teheran – Teheran is the pitcher I’m going to be targeting for cash games today. He’s pitched better at home this season, but I don’t think his road numbers worry me enough to fade him today. Teheran has under a .280 wOBA to both righties and lefties this season, and the Cubs only have a .291 team wOBA against right handed pitching this season. Anthony Rizzo is someone to worry about in this lineup, but is 2 for 9 in his career against Teheran. Teheran has only given up 37 ERs in 129 innings, and I think he’s the safest pitcher on the board today.
Hyun-Jin Ryu – Ryu was rocked in his last outing against Detroit, but I think he’s in line for a great bounce back game tonight. He’s struggled at home this season, but the Padres offense has really struggled against left handed pitching. The Padres have a team wOBA of .266 and a 22.6 K% against left handed pitching this season. If you take away Ryu’s last start, he’s thrown at least 6 innings in 9 straight games, and only allowed more than 4 ERs once. Ryu opened at a -155 favorite, and I think it might get higher as the day goes along.
Jacob deGrom – Jake is one of my favorite GPP plays on the day. He faced this Marlins team about 2 weeks ago, and was able to pick up his first Major League win. deGrom is coming off his second 11 strikeout game on the season, and presents a lot of upside with his strikeout ability. The Marlins have a 24% K-Rate against right handed pitching this season, which is the highest in the league. deGrom has been fantastic at home, and on the season has a 1.95 ERA at Citi Field. The Mets should be able to give deGrom plenty of run support against Hand today, and he could be a top 3 pitcher on the day.
Bruce Chen vs. Detroit Tigers – Chen has a nice K/9 this season, but that’s the only nice thing about him this season. Chen has given up 20 ERs in 25 innings this season. Detroit is loaded with power righties, and Chen is giving up a .385 wOBA to righties this season. Detroit has been awesome against lefties this season: .286 AVG, .350 wOBA, .798 OPS, 3.1 HR%, .175 ISO, and a 120 wRC+. Chen is in for a long morning, and DET is too good to fade today.
Justin Verlander vs. Kansas City Royals – It’s a sad time when an ace like Verlander becomes just another name in baseball. Verlander has declined faster than a lot of people have expected, and as a fan I hope he turns it around in the second half. The Royals have a huge sample size against Verlander. They’re batting .280/.339/.414 in 382 at bats against him. Kansas City only has a 15.5 K% against righties this season, and a team wOBA of .308. Verlander has a 5.01 ERA on the road this season, and a .390 wOBA against righties. I really like Billy Butler today, and he could be very under owned in GPPs.
Clay Buchholz vs. Houston Astros – Oh Clay why did you become so bad this season. Buchholz looked good in his first 2 starts coming off the DL, but went back to trying to throw the ball by people last game and gave up 4 ER. Buchholz has a 2.10 HR/9 to right handed hitters this season, and a 1.11 HR/9 to lefties. The Houston Astros are a completely different team that last season. The Astros have scored at least 3 runs over the last 10 games, and they’re averaging 6.3 runs in that 10 game stretch. The Astros might be really under owned because of the COL/MIN game, but could be the highest scoring team on the board today.
Couple Notable HR/9:
Chris Young: 1.34 HR/9 vs. RHH and 1.23 HR/9 vs. LHH
Scott Baker: 2.63 HR/9 vs. LHH
David Price: 1.29 HR/9 vs. RHH
R A Dickey: 1.66 HR/9 vs. RHH
John Danks: 1.27 HR/9 vs. RHH
Couple Notable wOBA:
Phil Hughes: .347 wOBA vs. RHH
Wily Peralta: .376 wOBA vs. LHH
Carlos Martinez: .384 wOBA vs. LHH
John Danks: .342 wOBA vs. RHH
Brad Hand: .405 wOBA vs. RHH