Start ‘Em or Fade ‘Em for NFL Week 1
Hello fellow NFL Grinders!
My name is Adam Kohn and I am here to help you all choose some players to start and fade for NFL DFS!
This blog series will be helping you make start and fade decisions for your NFL DFS lineups on Draftkings. I am going to be bringing you slate by slate breakdowns for each Sunday’s main slate. If you have questions for any other NFL slates, I am available on Twitter, @AdamWx21, and on Discord, just tag me in the NFL RG Discord chat, WxFan21, and I am happy to help answer any questions you may have. I am usually hanging out in the CSGO RG Discord chat as well, but will be checking out the NFL RG Discord from time to time as well.
: This blog post is specific to Draftkings main slates only. I am going to go position by position and give you 1-2 plays to start and 1-2 plays to fade for your GPP’s. While I understand that you should never “fade” anyone in a GPP setting, there are sometimes just plays that I feel like you can go underweight on or outright fade. I will specify if one of my “Fade ‘Em” plays I will be underweight on rather than straight fade, but if I don’t specify being underweight on that play, that play is a fade for me. These are only my opinions and may not be what I decide on when I finalize my lineups. All stats are courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com unless otherwise referenced.
: I will be using 2019 stats until we get through 4 weeks in the 2020 season. I feel that 4 weeks is a good sample size to start using this year’s information. I will note something about the 2020 data if appropriate.
<”(player-popup #matt-ryan)Matt Ryan”:/players/matt-ryan-11614 ($6,700)> – The Seahawks last season gave up the 6th most passing yards and gave up 19 TD’s vs opposing QB’s. This is a west coast team traveling east for a 1pm game. I expect this game to be a shootout. Seattle has improved their defense a bit, but it should take some time for this defense to start clicking and this game has the highest over/under on the slate at 49, as of Saturday night 9/12/2020. I want game stacks of this game in my 20 maxes and above.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,800) – The Cardinals last season gave up the most passing yards and gave up 38 TD’s vs opposing QB’s. The Vegas game total for this game is at 48, as of Saturday night 9/12/2020, and that is kind of high in my opinion. I actually think this game goes under 48. The 49ers have Bourne, Taylor, and maybe Aiyuk (depends if he is active due to injury) as their starting WR’s for this game. I love a Garoppolo/Kittle stack for this slate. It may be a chalkier stack, but Kittle should get a ton of volume, and if Kittle goes off, Garoppolo could have a nice fantasy day.
Cam Newton ($6,100) – The Dolphins last season gave up the 9th most passing yards and gave up 39 TD’s vs opposing QB’s. Here is an interesting stat. The Dolphins last season gave up the 2nd fewest rushing yards vs opposing QB’s. As a Patriots fan, writing up Cam as my Fade ‘Em for QB’s this week stinks, however, this is a new QB on a brand new team, who has not really had a lot of time to learn the playbook or get in a lot of reps with the team. I am fading Newton this week.
Josh Jacobs ($6,800) – The Panthers last season gave up the most rushing yards and gave up 27 TD’s (most in the league) vs opposing RB’s, however they gave up the fewest receiving yards vs opposing RB’s last season. This is a spot where Jacobs should absolutely crush. Play Jacobs with confidence.
Boston Scott ($4,800) & Corey Clement ($4,000) – The Washington Football Team last season gave up the 2nd most rushing yards and gave up 11 TD’s vs opposing RB’s, and they they gave up the 5th most receiving yards vs opposing RB’s last season. With Miles Sanders ruled out for this game, Scott is most likely going to be the highest owned player on the slate, however I think Clement is an excellent pivot off Scott for large field GPP’s. Both are firmly in play this week.
Alvin Kamara ($7,200) – The Buccaneers last season gave up the fewest rushing yards and gave up 8 TD’s vs opposing RB’s, and they gave up the 4th most receiving yards vs opposing RB’s last season. The Bucs defense vs the run is elite and not a defense I want to target for opposing RB’s. Kamara is a full fade for me this week.
Calvin Ridley ($6,100) – The Seahawks last season gave up the 13th fewest receiving yards and gave up 12 TD’s vs opposing WR’s. With the addition of Jamal Adams I think the Seahawks secondary gets a huge boost, but this is a game where I want tons of exposure to, and Ridley is someone I want in my Atlanta stacks, as a one off, and/or a player to run your Seahawks stacks back with.
Terry McLaurin ($5,600) – The Eagles last season gave up the 5th most receiving yards and gave up 21 TD’s vs opposing WR’s. The Eagles getting Darius Slay on their defense helps them in the secondary, but I’ve never really been a, Slay as an elite cornerback guy. He’s super talented and a great cornerback for sure, I just don’t think he is elite, so the matchup for McLaurin doesn’t bother me. McLaurin also should see a ton of volume in this game, and I would expect around 8-12 targets, if not more, in this game for him.
Adam Thielen ($6,700) – The Packers last season gave up the 14th fewest receiving yards and gave up 11 TD’s vs opposing WR’s. I don’t see the appeal of Thielen this week, even if he should see a lot of volume. I respect the Packers defense, and I would expect Jaire Alexander to shadow Thielen in this game. I’m fading Thielen this week.
George Kittle ($6,600) – The Cardinals last season gave up the most receiving yards and gave up 16 TD’s (most in the league) vs opposing TE’s. This really shouldn’t surprise anyone if you have played NFL DFS before. This is a flow chart team (to paraphrase Al Smizzle) as we want to play TE’s vs the Cardinals. Now with the addition of rookie Isaiah Simmons, they should get much better defending the TE this season, but I don’t think it starts in week 1. Kittle has volume and matchup working in his favor, and I don’t think Simmons, by himself, can stop Kittle. I will be overweight on Kittle this week.
Hayden Hurst ($4,300) – The Seahawks last season gave up the 2nd most receiving yards and gave up 6 TD’s vs opposing TE’s. Hurst finally gets to show the NFL world his talent. He was limited on the Ravens due to the multiple TE’s they use in their games. Now he is on a new team and facing a Seahawks team that is terrible vs the TE. Hurst will be a nice differentiator in your Atlanta stacks.
Rob Gronkowski ($4,900) – The Saints last season gave up the 11th fewest receiving yards and gave up 5 TD’s vs opposing TE’s. I get that Gronk has teamed up with Brady in Tampa, but I don’t want to play him this week vs a Saints defense that is good defending the TE position. I’m fading Gronk this week.
Well that is it for this week’s Start ‘Em or Fade ‘Em blog post! Thank you for reading this blog post, good luck in your other Week 1 contests, and I will catch you all next week with another Start ‘Em or Fade ‘Em blog post!