Studs and Duds - RBs - Week 5 Fanduel
Thanks to everyone for the positive response on the QBs article. I’ll drop another name that player quiz on you to start off this one too.
Rewind to lineup building for Week 4. Week 4 was a week where a lot of folks saw value to be had at the RB position. All the guys I’m going to talk about were priced under $7500 on FD for Week 4.
Player A has gotten around 18 touches a game. He has yet to score a touchdown but he is playing at home as an 8 point favorite against the 2nd worst rush defense per the DvP charts. He is the 2nd highest priced of the 3 RBs in the profile.
Player B had scored a touchdown in every game so far this season. He had been part of a time share but was going in to week 4 as the unquestioned starter in a home game where his team was favored by 5.5 points. Player B is the cheapest of the 3 players. The DvP matchup is bad though – Player B is going up against a top 5 rushing defense for 2015.
Player C has had two quiet weeks and one week where he led all fantasy RBs in scoring. His price has shot up about 15% over the last week. He is playing at home and his team is favored by a touchdown. He is the most expensive of the 3 players. But his DvP ranking against the team he is playing is the best, the team he is facing off against is the worst against the rush for the first 3 weeks of the season.
Based off of the information above (which is a lot of what we use to pick RBs on a weekly basis) – which one would you want?
I’m using this as a point to not get cute.
Player A is Melvin Gordon and he ended up with 5.6 FD points.
Player B is Karlos Williams and he ended up with 14.5 FD points.
Player C is Devonta Freeman and he led all players in Week 4 with 35.4 FD points.
Again, this is only one week. But all three RBs were decent favorites at home featured in offenses that like to run the ball. Freeman’s matchup was the best of the bunch. For some reason I talked myself out of him after he won me a ton of money in Week 3. I thought, “too many people will be on him”. I thought, “If Melvin Gordon scores more, I’ll shoot up the leaderboards”. I did use lots of Karlos Williams, but so did everyone else. In GPPs the story of Week 4 was, did you play Freeman? If you did, you probably made lots of money. If you faded him (like I did), you were probably sweating all weekend.
There are lots of positions you can make up points in in a large field GPP, RB is not one of them. With so few true bell cow backs – if one goes off for 30+ and you don’t have him, good luck making up the points.
I am going to go through the Studs and Duds now…. Studs are guys that I think can earn you back at least 3x their salary to put you in a position to win large field GPPs, Duds are guys that I think a lot of people will be on that will struggle to reach 2x value. Again, this article is mainly focused on multi entry (I will have exposure to all my “Studs”) but I will offer a single bullet recommendation at the end of the post to those doing the large field single entry GPPs.
Le’Veon Bell $9000 – Opponent SD (+3, T: 45.5) – Averaging 23.6 FD points/game
One thing is clear with Big Ben out in Pittsburgh… the offense runs through #26. He hasn’t even really had a “big game” yet and is still averaging around 24 points a game. SD has the 2nd worst DvP rating against RBs in 2015. The game is on Monday night and the Steelers last played on Thursday in Week 4. I see a theme so far for me in that I will be heavily invested in this week’s Monday Night Football contest. That’s ok with me – I love watching my team add $$$ on Monday Night.
Devonta Freeman $7600 – Opponent WAS (-8, T: 47.5) – Averaging 23.8 FD points/game
Now, I will be clear here… I am NOT expecting another 3 TD game from Freeman. We have likely seen his 2 best games of the year. WAS is #1 in the DvP rankings against RBs. So what I think may happen here is that people see the increased salary, the bad paper matchup, and move on. 3x value for Freeman this week is 22.8 points. With his involvement in the passing game, and the fact that Atlanta is at home and will probably be leading in this game means that Freeman has a recipe for success. I said in the QBs post that I think the Redskins numbers are largely a fraud and I think this is a game where we start to see that play out. Kyle Shanahan used to be the O-coordinator for the Redskins and I don’t expect him to take his foot off the gas. I will have TONS of exposure to the Falcons this week.
Justin Forsett $7200 – Opponent CLE (-6.5, T. 44) – Averaging 9.4 FD points/game
CLE is one of the worst defensive units in the league this year. BAL is coming off a Thursday night game in which they fed Forsett and he proceeded to run for 150 yards. CLE is in the bottom of the league in DvP against the RB position. I think this is a spot where we can look around and other players will look at the season long numbers and write off Forsett’s year last year as a fluke and move on. Steve Smith will miss this game. The offense and points will have to come from somewhere. I think Forsett is set up to have a huge game this week.
TJ Yeldon $6600 – Opponent TB (+3, T. 42) – Averaging 8.8 FD points/game
This is a game with a close spread featuring two young teams that don’t generally score lots of points. A lot of focus will be on the passing games of these two teams and I think it is a mistake. Yeldon had his first 100 yard game as a pro last week against a generally tough IND defense. JAX has shown the willingness to feed Yeldon the ball. TB will turn the ball over and give JAX some short fields. 3x value is 19.8 points. Thats 120 yards and a TD along with a couple catches for 15 yards. I see the potential for a lot more.
Eddie Lacy $7600 – Opponent STL (-10, T: 45.5) – Averaging 9.5 FD points/game
So this is a tricky one – the Packers are big favorites at home and St Louis is one of the worst teams at giving up fantasy points to RBs. Lacy seems to be fully healthy and received 18 carries last week against SF. Watching to game last week though, this is clearly a timeshare situation with “(player-popup)James Starks”:/players/james-starks-11701… Starks received 11 touches in the game. I expect STL to be able to hold on to the ball a little better then SF and use Gurley to grind the clock a bit. I just don’t think we are going to see the 100 yards and 2 TDs we need to see to justify the 3x here. He hasn’t shown it at all this year. He is in a favorable range and has a big name and I expect him to be a little higher owned then he should be. Freeman and Forsett are in better spots and a much better bet for 3x this week.
Todd Gurley $6700 – Opponent GB (+10, T: 45.5) – Averaging 9.5 FD/points/game
I expect Gurley to be one of the highest owned players on FD this week. He looked extremely good running the ball against a god ARZ defense. To justify this price you have to think he runs for 150 and a TD or 80 yards and 2 TDs. I just don’t see it. I will not be totally fading Gurley this week since he will be so highly owned but I will be limiting my exposure. But his team is a big road underdog and GB is in the top 1/3 of the league in limiting points to fantasy RBs. In multi-entry you have to have some exposure but I will be limiting.
Bell. I know a lot of people are on Charles this week against a soft CHI defense. Charles is at home and decent favorite and is getting consistent touches regardless of whether the team is up or down. He had 3 TDs two weeks ago. I like him. But if I am picking one guy this week its Bell. His upside is through the roof and on MNF I expect him to drop the hammer.
Thanks again for reading. Let me know if I missed anything or if you have questions or suggestions. I’ll be doing WRs next. Good luck!