SWOT Analysis: DraftKings WR Advanced Analytics Week 4

We have 24 teams to analyze this week as (GB/PHI/IND/JAX/MIN/NYG) are on a bye week.

This should serve as an advantage with your raw score and help on narrowing down your WR pool of analysis because there’s a lot of target heavy and potent offensive GPP weapons that are absent from this slate (Beckham Jr., Nelson, Hilton, Shepard, Robinson, Diggs, Hurns, Matthews, Cobb, Dorsett).

WR Antonio Brown $9,700

Strengths:

Steelers Passing Offensive Line: 9th/24th
Chiefs Pass Rush Defensive Line: 22nd/24th

Steelers Offensive Pace: 9th/24th
Chiefs Defensive Pace: 14th/24th

Chiefs Offensive Pace: 8th/24th
Steelers Defensive Pace: 13th/24th

Antonio Brown DVOA: 5th best overall WR on slate

Targets: 1st overall WR/TE/RB on Slate….13.33/game
% of Team Targets: 34% 1st Overall WR on Slate

Vegas Total: 47.5 (PIT -5)

Weaknesses:

RZ Targets: 1
% of Team RZ Targets: 10%
Chiefs Defense vs WR#1 DVOA: 1st/24th

Opportunities:

L’eveon Bell is back and opens offense
Primetime Game
KC off a Win
PIT off an ugly Loss

Threats:

PIT Blowout Win and Less Usage
L’eveon Bell is back and vultures TDs

Analysis: Antonio Brown is a very strong play this week albeit with a couple threats to success. With the Chiefs and Steelers ranking at the bottom of this slate in pass rush, their quarterbacks should have time to throw. With moderately fast-paced offenses and moderately slower-paced defenses, this game leans more to the side of a shootout with lots of quick plays and opportunities for passing success. It is concerning that the KC DVOA against #1 WR’s is best on this slate, but Brown, is the #5 overall DVOA at WR in the NFL. This may lower his production a little bit. Though, with Bell being back and with Brown leading the league in targets, he should definitely get his fair share of looks and opportunities. Whether or not he turns these into TD’s is the question. Keenan Allen went for 6/63 before he was injured in week 1, and is similar to Brown in that he has an efficient QB. Deandre Hopkins went 7/113/TD vs Peters in week 2 which was good for 27.3 DFK points. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw six INT’s and was incredibly inefficient and thus Brandon Marshall went just 3 for 27 and 5.7 DFK points. I think the Jets game was more of a reflection of poor QB play and a letdown spot for the Jets on the road. With this game being a home Primetime Slate….you can fire up Antonio Brown and expect a floor of 27 points, and a ceiling of 39.2 DFK points.

Prediction: 12 catches, 122 yards, 1 TD.
33.2 DFK Points

Ownership Prediction: 20%

WR Tyrelle Pryor Sr. $4,300

Strengths:

Redskins Passing Offensive Line: 4th/24th
Browns Passing Defensive Line: 19th/24th

Browns Offensive Pace: 13th/24th
Redskins Defensive Pace: 20th/24th

Redskins Offensive Pace: 6th/24th
Browns Defensive Pace: 17th/24th

Redskins Defense vs WR#1, WR #2, Other WRs DVOA: 28th, 29th, 31st in the NFL

Targets: 32….10.67/game
% of Team Targets: 31%

Vegas Total: 46.5 (WAS -7.5)

Weaknesses:

Browns Passing Offensive Line: 22nd/24th
Redskins Pass Rush Defensive Line: 10th/24th

DVOA: 62nd best overall WR on slate

RZ Targets: 1
% of Team RZ Targets: 10%

Opportunities:

Key cog of the offense now in CLE
Triple-Threat Ability to run, throw, or receive
CLE off a Loss
Was off a Win
CB #2 Breeland (WAS) going through injury protocol
Norman absent from Thursday’s practice
STILL hasn’t caught a TD Pass

Threats:

WAS or Norman plays well and keys in on Pryor as he and Crowell are maybe the only big-game threats left in CLE vs WAS
Kessler shows rust vs. a solid pass rush/bad offensive live as he’s still a rookie

Analysis: “Tyrelle Pryor Sr. is showing how talented he is and how important he is to the Browns. He has a great matchup this week as CLE has their implied total raised with an overall total of 46.5 in the game for CLE/WAS. The Redskins should have no trouble passing or running the football as their offensive line is stout and the Browns lack a significant pass rush. Both offensive paces are moderately higher than both defensive paces, so the defenses should have trouble getting off the field, allowing shootout opportunity and efficient offensive plays. Pryor also can throw or rush for a TD, which adds to his ceiling, and did last week. I am worried about the Browns offensive line as is struggles and WAS has a top 10 pass rush, however, Miami, plays with a faster defensive pace and has a similarly ranked pass rush, and Pryor was still able to have a GPP winning game. Kessler showed enough poise under pressure, and CLE was leading against Miami, they should likely be trailing in this one with the Vegas total and Cousins’ elite matchup. With Pryor getting 10.67 targets/game, I think it’s OK if Norman shadows him, but Jay Gruden said that is unlikely to occur. WAS has been ranked at the bottom of the league’s DVOA in covering all WR’s regardless of position in the offense. I give Pryor the edge this week based on game flow that is likely to occur, we could see CLE trailing by two touchdowns early and forced to pass all day, improving Pryor’s upside.

Prediction: 9 catches, 97 yards, 1 TD.
24.7 DFK Points

Ownership Prediction: 15%

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