Tennis Triple Threat: July 12
The week after Wimbledon is always a fascinating one from both a viewing and fantasy perspective. It is the only week during the year with tournaments being played on the three major surfaces simultaneously.
The last grass-court tournament of the season is taking place in Newport, Rhode Island for the men. On the hard courts are the ladies in Prague, Czech Republic. And on the clay are two more men’s tournaments: one in Bastad, Sweeden, and Hamburg, Germany. Lastly, the women are also on the clay in Lausanne, Switzerland.
It is important to keep in mind the strengths of each player, how that is affected by the surface they are playing on, and constructing a roster that can provide upside and leverage by taking advantage of the quirk in scheduling for this week. Players only looking at fantasy salaries and player moneylines will be a step behind the true grinders.
High-Tier: Kevin Anderson
Kevin Anderson is not only the highest-priced option, but he is by far the safest. The three next highest-priced players are women who can introduce more variance. Anderson is on the grass in Newport where he will rack up the aces. He has a career ace rate of 19% on grass which means he is nearly a sure bet to hit the 10+ ace bonus on DK. Additionally, grass is Anderson’s best and favorite surface. With this being the last grass-court tournament of the season, expect full motivation from the South African as he is one of the favorites to win the tournament.
His opponent, Ilya Marchenko, failed to qualify into Wimbledon and his ranking of #153 is not encouraging at all. He did post this hilarious video of Novak Djokovic “answering” a press conference question at Wimbledon that I highly recommend. Watch that video, but click Anderson’s name in DFS.
Mid-Tier: Marco Cecchinato
As long as he didn’t stay out too late partying after Italy’s win at Euro’s, Marco Cecchinato is in a great spot to get a victory on Monday. Cecchinato is a clay court specialist who reached the finals of Parma and scored a pair of victories at Roland Garros this year. His stats on grass and hard courts are not representative of his abilities on clay, so it is appropriate to ignore his bad loss to Liam Broady at Wimbledon two weeks ago.
Richard Gasquet was a fine player at one point, but his career is going downhill steeply. The 35-year-old has a .500 record on clay since the tour restart. His best tennis is way behind him, and the downhill trajectory is expected to continue. Both players have minuses next to their moneylines, but Cecchinato should be a decent-sized favorite here.
Low-Tier: Yuichi Sugita
For you tournament players, Yuichi Sugita is a player to consider for an upset. Sugita is a +130 underdog priced at $6,600 on DK. He has a chance to get the ace bonus and he has a favorable matchup against Jurij Rodionov. Rodionov is a 22-year-old without much grass-court experience. He is only 3-5 on the surface in his career. Recency bias is playing a factor as all three wins came this year at Stuttgart. However, he managed to scrape by with a win by retirement from Peter Gojowczyk and two three-set wins, one of which needed a third-set tiebreak.
These two players are more or less equal. In these instances, favoring the player with more experience (Sugita) is the way to go.
Thank you all so much for reading! If you have any suggestions for the blog, please let me know in the comments. I will be running this “Triple Threat” edition of the Break Point Blog throughout the week, so keep your eyes peeled here for a quick slate breakdown each day. Best of luck in all of your contests and may the ball bounce your way!