Thanksgiving Day College Football
Colorado State @ Air Force -5.5 O/U 54.5
New Mexico -6 @ Utah State O/U 51.5
Colorado State ( Implied Team Total)
Patrick O’Brien ($7.3k FD/$6k DK) has had middling results through 3 games this season. The pro-style QB has completed 34 out of 56 pass attempts for 477 yards, 3 TD, and 1 INT. He’s also added 2 rushing TDs this season. While there’s always the chance that he loses some snaps to running QB Todd Centeio ($6.2k FD/$5.8k DK), it shouldn’t happen this week. Air Force has been stingy against the run, but they’ve been vulnerable to the pass. Prior to shutting down New Mexico’s back up QB last week, Air Force was allowing a crisp 9.81 yards per pass attempt. They’ve surrendered 6 TDs in 4 games total this season. The Colorado State offense is favoring the run (57.3/42.7 run-pass split) and averages 68.7 plays per game.
A’Jon Vivens ($7.4k FD/$5.6k DK) looks like a better than Marcus McElroy Jr. ($6.8k FD/$4.9k DK) The sophomore has 24 carries for 138 yards and 1 TD over the last 2 games (Boise/WYO). McElroy ($6.8k FD) has 25 yards on 19 carries over the last 2 games. Vivens outcarried him 12 to 3 in the Rams last game at Boise State. I will note that McElroy Jr. sustained a shoulder injury in that game which likely limited him. The matchup with Air Force is rough; they’ve allowed just 3 rushing TDs in 4 games. Not including last week, they were holding ball carriers to 3.55 yards per carry (even less if you factor in last week).
Notable target counts through 3 games: Trey McBride (28), Dante Wright (19 – 2 games), EJ Scott (13), Nate Craig-Myers (10), A’Jon Vivens (2), and Marcus McElroy (2).
McBride ($9.5k FD/$8.7k DK) and Wright ($9.1k FD/$6.3k DK) are the two primary playmakers in the passing game. McBride has posted 8/130/1 (FRESNO), 5/90/2 (WYO), and 4/48/1 (BOISE) through 3 games. Air Force has allowed 2/18/2 to SJSU’s TE Deese and 5/40/0 to Boise’s TE Bates. The speedster, Wright, is averaging 7.5 receptions and 127.5 receiving yards through 2 games. He’s also run 17 yards on 5 carries. Scott ($5.6k FD/$3.6k DK) and Craig-Myers ($5.9k FD/$3.8k DK) are secondary pass catchers. Scott has 5 receptions for 42 yards through 3 games while Craig-Myers has 6 receptions for 68 yards this season.
In 2020 (3 games), CSU is 112th in passing yards allowed with 290.3 yards/game. They are 14th in rushing yards allowed with 105.7 yards/game. The defense has given up 8 TDs on the ground (2.66 TD/game) and 4 TDs through the air (1.33 TD/game) this season.
Air Force ( Implied Team Total)
Starting QB Haaziq Daniels ($8.8k FD/$6.5k DK) has completed 17 out of 31 pass attempts for 199 yards and 1 TD while also running for 189 yards and 2 TDs on 38 carries (3+ games). The matchup with Colorado State is interesting because they’re not allowing yardage, but they’ve allowed an eye-popping 8 rushing TDs in only 3 games. Additionally, they’re limiting ball carriers to 2.84 yards per carry. The Air Force offense favors the run (83.6/16.4 run-pass split) and averages 67 plays per game.
The Air Force back is in flux with starting FB Timothy Jackson ($8.6k FD/$4.8k DK) and RB Kaden Rembsurg ($7.5k FD/$4.6k DK) unavailable in each of the last 2 games. Brandon Roberts ($10.5k FD/$8.2k DK) exploded for 28/177/3 in last week’s win with Rembsburg out. Matthew Murla ($6.1k FD/$3.6k DK) started for Jackson and ran for 64 yards on 7 carries. Obviously, these guys are in play if Jackson and Remsburg continue to miss time. Murla enters this week with 106 rushing yards and 3 TDs on 20 carries while Roberts is up to 280 rushing yards and 4 TDs on 38 carries. Jackson has 178 rushing yards on 34 carries while Remsburg has 30 rushing yards on 10 carries. Both players have played in 2 games.
Target counts through 4 games: Brandon Lewis (15), Kyle Patterson (13), Daniel Morris (4), Jorden Gidrey (2), Rhett Harms (1 – 1 game), and Corbin Blanchard (1 – 1 game).
Lewis ($7.5k FD/$5.4k DK) is an intriguing play because he’s the starting slot back meaning he’s involved in the running game but will also run pass routes. He has 8 receptions for 68 while also running for 180 yards and 1 TD on 20 carries. I will note that he was banged up in last week’s game but managed to play through it and finish the game. That’s something to monitor pre-game. Luckily, we should know his status prior to lock. The other viable pass catcher is the TE Patterson ($5.3k FD/$4k DK). Patterson has 2+ receptions and has cleared 34 receiving yards in 3 straight games. Colorado State has struggled against the pass this season. They’re allowing 290.3 passing yards per game including 8.89 yards per pass attempt. They’ve surrendered 4 pass TDs in 3 games.
In 2020 (3 games), AF is 46th in passing yards allowed with 219 yards/game. They are 21st in rushing yards allowed with 112.3 yards/game. The defense has given up 3 TDs on the ground (1 TD/game) and 6 TDs through the air (2 TD/game) this season.
New Mexico ( Implied Team Total)
Trae Hall ($9.7k FD/$8k DK) struggled in last week’s 28-0 loss to Air Force. The dual threat QB was held to 221 passing yards and 1 INT on 42 pass attempts. He recorded 13 rushing yards on 8 attempts. Presumed starter, Tevaka Tiouti ($11k FD/$7.1k DK), was held out for the 2nd straight game. If Taveka is healthy, it’ll be interesting to see which QB starts. Tiouti averaged 237.5 passing yards, 70 rushing yards, and 2.5 total TDs in starts against Hawaii and SJSU. The matchup with Utah State is stellar. Utah State has allowed point totals of 42, 38, 34, and 35 this season. They’ve been blowtorched for 321.3 passing yards per game including 8.51 yards per pass attempt. The Aggies have allowed 12 pass TDs through 3 games. The New Mexico offense is operating at a 50/50 run-pass split and averages 73.5 plays per game.
Bobby Cole ($7.9k FD/$5.2k DK) starts at RB and rotates with Nathaniel Jones ($6.3k FD/$4.3k DK) in the backfield. Cole has cleared 90 rushing yards in 2 out of 4 games. He’s run for 1 TD this season (3/22/0 receiving). He received only 6 snaps as New Mexico was forced to the air in last week’s loss. Jones is likely to receive 5-8 carries. He’s run for 136 yards and 1 TD on 24 carries this season. Utah State has allowed the opposing starting running back to run for 100+ yards and 1+ TDs in all 4 games this season. Bryson Carroll ($5.2k FD/$3.9k DK) could also be rosterable on a 2-game slate. The diminutive back has 12 rushing yards on 12 carries while he’s posted 8/76/0 receiving.
Notable target counts through 4 games: Emmanuel Logan-Greene (34), Jordan Kress (28), Andrew Erickson (20), Marcus Williams (15), Bryson Carroll (8), and Boby Cole (3).
ELG ($6.5k FD/$5k DK) has cleared 47 receiving yards and has 3+ receptions in all 4 games. The senior does not have a TD reception this season. He’s also received at least 1 carry in all 4 games (6/22/0 as a runner. Kress ($8.2k FD/$5.7k DK) is the deep threat. He’s cleared 50 receiving yards in 3 straight games (28/530/6 in 2019). Utah State has been burned for 6 40+ yard pass TDs this season. Erickson ($6.9k FD/$4.1k DK) has 2+ receptions in all 4 games; he’s cleared 47 receiving yards in 3 out of 4 games. Williams ($5.5k FD/$3.2k DK), the TE, has 6 receptions for 56 yards this season. He posted 26/428/1 in 2019.
In 2020 (3 games), New Mexico is 124th in passing yards allowed with 410.3 yards/game. They are 3rd in rushing yards allowed with 81 yards/game. The defense has given up 1 TD on the ground (.33 TD/game) and 12 TDs through the air (4 TD/game) this season. – stats prior to last game –
Utah State ( Implied Team Total)
Starting QB Jason Shelley has been dismissed from the team. Backup QB Andrew Peasley ($6.6k FD/$6.1k DK) is back this week (been out due to COVID). However, Utah State has not announced a starter and the Head Coach stated Peasley and Cooper Legas ($5.2k FD/$6.4k DK) are still competing for the starting job (likely won’t know until just before the game). In limited playing time (2018-2020), Peasley has completed 11 out of 26 pass attempts for 53 yards and 1 INT. He’s run for 183 yards and 1 TD on 13 carries. He plays a similar style to QB Shelley. Legas redshirted in 2019 and did not see any action. He’s a former 3-star prospect. Like Shelley and Peasley, he’s a dual threat QB. The matchup with New Mexico is fabulous. Prior to last week, New Mexico had the worst pass defense in the country. Those numbers improved slightly after facing off with the trip option Air Force offense. The Utah State offense is favoring the run (52.5/47.5 run-pass split) and averages 61 plays per game.
Jaylen Warren ($9.4k FD/$7.3k DK) and Devontae Henry-Cole ($6.6k FD/$3.4k DK) rotate in the backfield. Warren, the starter, is the Aggies’ best offensive weapon. In 3 games, Warren has run for 252 yards and 3 TDs on 39 carries (5/33/0 receiving). DHC has run for 127 yards on 31 carries in 4 games this season (1/4/0). He’s been held under 30 rushing yards in 3 out of 4 games. The 2 RBs are in a plus spot this week. Air Force racked up 356 yards and 4 rushing TDs on 63 carries against New Mexico last week (5.7 yards per carry).
Notable target counts through 3 games: Deven Thompkins (30), Justin McGriff (25), Jordan Nathan (15), Jaylen Warren (6 – 3 games), Savon Scarver (6 – 3 games), and Devontae Henry-Cole (5).
Leading pass catcher Deven Thompkins has declared his intent to transfer earlier this week. Taylor Compton ($4.5k FD/$3k DK) is listed as the starting slot WR in Thompkin’s place. Compton has not recorded a receptions (14/121/0 in 2019). McGriff ($7.1k FD/$4.4k DK), starting Z-receiver, has drawn 5+ targets in all 4 games. He figures to be a good spot against a New Mexico defense that has been dusted by Z-receivers (Hawaii’s Mardner 6/147/1 and NEV’s Doubs 5/172/3. Lastly, Nathan ($6.6k FD/$3.9k DK), is off to a slow start in 2020 (6/42/0). He caught 56 balls on 78 targets in 2019 (581 receiving yards and 1 TD). His role should increase now that Thompkins is no longer with the program. Carson Terrell ($4.5k FD/$3.1k DK) is Utah State’s TE (1/10/0 on 5 targets over the last 2 games).
In 2020 (4 games), Utah State is 119th in passing yards allowed with 321.3 yards/game. They are 100th in rushing yards allowed with 204.5 yards/game. The defense has given up 8 TDs on the ground (2 TD/game) and 12 TDs through the air (3 TD/game) this season.