The 4 course meal!!
While most normal people are getting prepared by buying food, and planning to spend time with the family, us degenerates will spend most likely the rest of today and all the way up until lock tomorrow trying to figure out how to be different in a small slate. There is some injury news that still needs to come out, and the most important is the news in Detroit about De’andre Swift, if he is active he changes quite a few things for me personally. My first blog of the week, now that I look back at it may have been a little early, considering the Baltimore news came out after the fact. I’ve got nothing but time on my hands right now, so I’m back in the lab and trying to get some info out, while learning how to get better at this blogging thing.
This 3 game slate on Turkey day has been known to have some crazy things happen, and some guys not being touted much end up breaking the slate, or causing your chances to cash pretty slim. So, while I don’t need to or intend to go much into detail about the obvious play guys that everyone will have. Those names like Deshaun, Zeke, Mclaurin, and all the other top guys on this one are going to be jammed in most lineups in as many combos as we can. On a 3 game slate when the games aren’t jumping right off as huge fantasy appeal games, it makes all of the obvious plays so much higher owned and leaving you with ways to try and be contrarian as possible with what might be limited viable options outside of those main plays to most. The chances are on slates like this there will be a good amount of winners splitting a prize, and numerous duplicate lineups. If you’re using all 50k of your salary, then chances are you might get there, but you’re going to be splitting that big win, with many others. I’m more of a cash game player and I try the 80/20 cash to GPP ration as much as I can, but the slate can dictate if I go more GPP than usual, depending how I’m feeling about it. The common theme I have got from a few other people is on this slate everyone tends to go big or broke. We don’t spend hours on hours trying to break even or min cash, we all want that big prize and this slate for me I always end up going a lot more GPP.
At the beginning of the week I wasn’t on the Ravens vs. Steelers for DFS purposes. Now with the Covid news in Baltimore, it changes some things and it makes Gus Edwards the value RB on the slate. While its not a great matchup on paper, and the last game the Ravens ran it anywhere they wanted and for multiple long gains. The first matchup the Steelers were without Bush (gone for season) and Tyson Alualu, and there is a pretty big decline on the D-line after Alualu and was one reason why those runs were more effective, and adding the loss of Bush just magnified it even more. While I respect and love the Spillane story, he was a big reason for some of those big runs. He is a great depth piece and makes some big plays with great instincts, but he isn’t an average NFL LB when it comes to being able to get off a block, and for that reason he was ran at multiple times and since he couldn’t shed the blocks they were able to get multiple big runs. Last week the new addition in Avery Williamson was able to take the field for a few snaps for his first time in Pittsburgh, and I think as he gets more snaps and learns the Defense he will take the spot over. He is superior in every category to Spillane, and if he gets reps this game then that could help fill the void of not having Bush in games like this. I look for the Steelers to focus on not letting them to run all over them again and having Alualu back, and the possibility of Williamson getting more action, it should prevent a lot of those from happening. I’m not saying the Ravens won’t have good numbers on the ground, because the volume at which they run the ball they are going to put some numbers up regardless. I just don’t think those big plays in the ground game will come as easy. While in cash games the play is Gus obviously, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Justice Hill will end up being just as good of a play if not better, if he gets the passing game work and ends up as the 3rd down back. So, in GPP I will definitely have equal if not more exposure to Hill than Gus. To me, the best play for Baltimore is, Willie Snead and not just because last meeting he was the guy that had a good game. If there is one spot the Steelers have gave up some to WR it is in the slot, or those quick hitters and crossing routes. That is where Snead did damage last meeting, there was multiple times that Spillane was matched up on Snead and he wasn’t able to stop it. He made plays after the fact, but I could be wrong on this but I saw a stat from this last meeting that said Spillane was targeted 12 times with WR/RB and gave up 12 completions for over 100 yards. If I’m Baltimore and its Spillane on the field in those passing downs then I’m attacking that consistently until its proven it can be stopped. For me the 2 guys from Baltimore I like the most is Snead and Hill for GPP, because I don’t need to mention Andrews because TE is ugly and he is an obvious play, but I’ll take my stance on those 2 mentioned being the plays for Baltimore.
Now, as for my Steelers offense, I’m not saying that Ben is a bad play because it is a primetime game at Home against the biggest rival. In these spots you can get the best out of Ben, and here lately with him being slighted some about all this never receiving and MVP vote, and just now being thrown into the consideration for it, what better way for Ben to prove all of those haters and naysayers wrong?? There is injuries to monitor with Juju and if he is out then it would change the passing game up quite a bit. It would most likely move Diontae to the slot and put Washington on the outside. The thought was people would like JW if Juju is out, but to me I don’t see it. If he is out then James isn’t going to automatically get those targets, because the routes that Juju runs and his type of targets isn’t the way the Steelers use James. Let’s operate under the assumption he is in. The last meeting Diontae was hurt in the very beginning of the game, and probably more or less was used as a decoy because without him on the field it would have made covering Juju and Claypool easier. Now that Juju has taken over the old Hines Ward role and those tough possession catches, he has been more consistent (outside of last game) and has seemed to show up in those big clutch spots when they really need a 1st down or a big play, and I could see him getting those tough catches this matchup, but I think he is the last of the 3 that I want. I will have some exposure, but Diontae is the guy I want. Last week Ben attempted 46 passes and 16 were to DJ, that was a 34% target share and he has consistently seen double digit targets in the games he is healthy. Those delayed crossing routes after Juju and Ebron have cleared the middle out is where Diontae has made his money at, and those type of routes and the quick passing game that he has been a huge part of will be needed in this one. Then with Claypool, you always have the chance he catches a long one or gets in the end zone, I mean 10 TD’s in 10 games is apparent that he just has a knack for finding pay dirt. In GPP he is always in play, but I’m going to go with what I think is the 2 best plays in the passing game for Pitt and that is Diontae and Eric Ebron. The addition of Ebron has been huge for Ben and he seems to find him in some big spots, Ebron will be having a quiet game and then all of a sudden he is in the end zone or getting multiple 10+ yard catches in a row. The last meeting he wasn’t looked at until the 2nd half, but once they found that mismatch they tried to exploit it and I think they will continue where they left off with that. The run game has a chance to turn in a decent game with the injuries to Baltimore and needing some threat of the ground game to slow the pass rush down, that way the play action can be utilized with success. I will have very limited exposure to Conner on the off chance he does finally get it going, but I would just assume with the other RB’s on the slate to go that route. From the sounds of it this game is where you might be able to gain your leverage at though.
- I have rambled enough and gave my thoughts and rambled enough on that game,* so I will be a little more brief on these next ones and just give some less chalky guys.
In the Houston and Detroit game, this is where most everyone is going for QB on either side. There is injury news with Golladay (which I don’t think plays) and Swift (who I think plays) the Swift news would change some things and make him a smash play, but everyone knows that and they will be moving Swiftly to put him in. If you think he doesn’t get a full work load then you can take shots on AP or Kerryon, and the way I’m going to build is some with expectations he isn’t limited and have him some, but also as if he is limited or out and go Kerryon over AP. The passing game for Detroit the obvious plays are MJJ and TJ Hockenson, so don’t need to explain much there, but there is a guy that could be called back up with the injury issues with Golladay, Hall, and Amendola it could leave them to bring Mohamed Sanu back up from the practice squad. If they call Sanu up, we all know he can provide a solid target to Stafford and he would be a good low owned punt with some upside. He is more than capable of playing a role for them and you have to think he has a chip on his shoulder somewhat wanting to prove himself, after the Patriots experiment failed. I will be keeping my eye on the news with the WR room in Detroit for that.
On the Texans side of the ball, we are going to see so many stacks of Deshaun and Fuller or Cooks if not both, and for good reason. The ones not being talked about as much are Keke Coutee, Jordan Akins, and the Duke. I know Duke has made a lot of people in the DFS community cursing his name the last 2 weeks, and I’m one of them, but he has bad weather in one and then last week it was a better matchup on paper, then maybe in real life. This week he gets a defense in the bottom 3 of the league for yards per game, and over the last 3 games they have gave up the most yards on the ground per game at 160ypg. This could be the Duke’s last game as full time starter and with the matchup as good as it is, I think he has the game we’ve all wanted him to the last 2 weeks. If more people are off Duke because his last 2, then that will put me on him even more and probably being overweight some. If he doesn’t do it in this matchup then it’s most likely his last chance to prove that he is capable of doing it for anyone. The injury to Cobb changed some things, because Cobb was quietly having a decent season for his consistent low price tag each week. It seems it will be Coutee’s chance to get back in the good graces of the team after his fumble in week 2 that put him in the dog house. Now, he gets a chance to step up and be involved in a role that has averaged 6 targets per game over the last 4 with the combo of Cobb/Coutee’s targets. At 3400 in a role that he is probably going to get 5+ targets against a team that gives it up on D, he is probably the best salary saver on the board. With the other bigger name TE’s getting all the talk and ownership, we have Akins quietly coming off a 5/83 game on 6 targets. With the Cobb and Stills injury it should open some things up for the TE’s in Houston. Between the TE’s last week they had 11 targets, and could be in line for more of a workload. I like Akins and think he has the chance to be the best value at the position this slate.
The Battle of the NFC Least
The last game to talk about is the WFT vs. Cowboys and even though its a rematch I don’t think it plays out the way it did the first meeting. The obvious plays in the game are Zeke, Terry, Lamb, Amari, Gibson, JD, and Schultz (somewhat). The lesser talked about guys I like is Pollard, and Dontrelle Inman. I’m sure were going to get a heavy dose of Zeke again in this game, because the Cowboys know to have a chance they need to lean on him as much as they can. The WFT rush defense has been middle of the pack and over the last 3 have gave up 113 ypg, and I think this week that number goes up by a decent amount. Having Dalton back put life into the pass game, but it also opens up more room for Zeke and Pollard. When giving the chance Pollard has proven he is a capable RB and last week 5/60/1 isn’t a bad line for limited touches at all, do we think he will avg 12ypc all the time??? Not at all, but when he is given the ball he runs hard and almost like he is trying to prove himself every time he touches it. For the Cowboys to win they need to lean on the ground game, and after Zeke has had hamstring issues and coming off 21 carry game just 4 days ago, there might be more chances for Pollard to help take some of the load from Zeke. To me, when people look at Gus for 4k, I think Pollard is the better pivot at that price range and my lineups will likely show that.
We know Alex Smith and the passing game isn’t going to be lighting score boards up anytime soon, and that its pretty concentrated beween Terry and JD with the few going to Logan Thomas or Sims, and some strays here and there. They seem to like what Sims has done and this being Inman’s first game back he might be in a part time type of role, but before he got hurt he received 5 targets or more in all games he played except 1. He is the type of guy that out of nowhere has a double TD game and leaves everyone scratching their heads like what??? He is a good way to get contrarian for a cheap guy that has some TD upside. I like having a little exposure to Inman and hopefully seeing him fall in the end zone a time or 2.
Anyone who has actually taking the time to read the blogs I have posted, and gave feed back or a thumbs up. I appreciate you. Most of everyone is probably like man this guy really does have a lot of time on his hands lol, and you would be right I do right now. Going from working 6/10s and a lot of times 7/12s a week, it has been an adjustment, so I’m just trying to find a positive outlet for all of my time during the day while the kids and wife are gone. I really do appreciate all of you and the feedback, its something I have always had a passion for, but never knew where to start and how I would be at it, so I’m still trying to work out all the kinks as I go.
Hopefully any info I have put out has helped in some way. Thanks for reading again!!!