The Coach and The Small Times
My name is Nick and I have a problem… Do they have DFS anonymous? I’ll start off by saying we’re not ones to blog, but there is a serious lack of information pertaining to College Basketball, so we figured we’d fill the obvious void. I play daily, but my expertise is limited in that fact that I don’t have a direct line to the coaches. On that note; I’d send daily hate-mail as I’m sure you all know that trying to figure out lineups college basketball can be a tall task. It is so difficult to find information; so for beginners, like myself, I’d recommend Twitter. A solid daily source for all your needs… I will say that Coach and I spend about four solid hours per day in preparation. Neither of us has hit “the big one”, but Coach has taken some recent small stakes games and we’re definitely a part of the daily grind. Enough about us/me though…
We try to first identify value; then, drop in the studs The error in our ways is that the “studs” are not often the top producers so it takes a bit of luck. What we do is concentrate on the numbers… KenPom.com is the bees-knees if you can figure out how to decipher the free stuff. We look to AdjO, AdjD & AdjT which are adjusted offense, defense and tempo, or pace of play. Tempo being a key factor for me, but I’m not sure about Coach. The smaller number is the ranking in the respective columns so, for example: KU at WVU was an easy target yesterday due to the tempo, but go figure on the “U” @ BC game… Thank goodness it was only in the early slate on DK~! You can only be so lucky to get the coveted double OT! The O/U is an easy target too, but that’s pretty obvious if you’re worth a damn. It takes an outlier to win, but the O/U is a great strategy for cash games. I don’t play cash though as this is pure entertainment for me . I love the $2 jimmy on DK! I like to pepper about 3 or so lineups based in the daily search and see what happens. That’s said; I survived last college basketball season, the, oh so, difficult baseball season and the impossible football season. Only to find out that my true love is the CBB. Enough about the process….
I figured I would try this out since I am snowed in here on the East Coast. I play DK exclusively, so all these opinions relate to DK.
Alabama (-1) @ Auburn (O/U 133)
Alabama: Strangely, I am all over this one. Alabama gets a colossal tempo bust and Auburn is not very good defensively. I could see rostering anyone of Cooper, Randolph, and Retin Obasohan and Shannon Hale for Value. Tarrant is still out and rumors are he might be shut down.
Likes: Cooper, Randolph, Obasohan, Hale
Coach loves Obashon, but what has Oba-shon me lately? Too much? I agree… I like Hale like it’s 2014, but will probably fade otherwise.
Auburn is a crap-shoot, but someone has to score, right? It’s a home game though. Take a flyer on KC Ross-Miller or Canada if you need value. Harrell is obvious and rarely makes value, but plug him in if you’re feeling saucy!
Baylor (-8.5) @ Texas Tech (O/U 123)
Baylor: Blowout city + snail pace + high prices = Fade! I understand Rico and company should dominate but I don’t see him reaching 40 ftps. unless for some divine intervention the Red Raider keep it close. I can understand if you roster anyone of Gathers, Chery, O’Neil, etc. but Baylor isn’t my cup of tea tonight.
Texas Tech: Isaiah Manderson (3k)…. HAHAHA No thank you. Moving on!
You know we all love Uncle Rico… (I can throw a football over those mountains), but Coach might be right on this one. There’s always Taurean Prince off the bench, but I’ve played Chery and O’Neil. Maybe they work for you, but I’d agree in that it might be scrub time.
LSU (-2.5) at Texas A&M (O/U 134)
LSU: Another LSU game another decision to roster Mickey or Martin, or both? Both are expensive, both have massive upside. I normally go with Mickey, but tonight I like Martin more. Martin is more of a load in the paint and don’t think the Aggies can match him. In both cases, hope for no foul trouble as both are prone to pick up quick fouls.
Likes: Martin, Mickey
Texas A&M: Jalen Jones is one of my favorite plays tonight. His price is right, TEMPO BOOST, he is at home, and has already had a 29 point game at LSU. I also like House here too. His price is reasonable and for the same reasons I like Jones. Texas A&M relies on these 2 heavily and I don’t see that changing tonight.
Likes: Jalen Jones, House
Too obvious to pick Mickey/Martin, but one of them will be a key piece to the cash. Good luck picking which one. I always take Martin @ home and Mickey on the road, but do opposite and collect. I’m always horny for Hornsby. Dude is a hustler… Totally agree on the J. Jones pick from Coach. House is always a sneaky play…
Michigan State (-5) @ Michigan (O/U 116)
Michigan State: I believe the big three are overpriced and are playing against one of the slowest teams in the country = Pass. I can see the reason behind playing Dawson or Valentine, I just can’t do it tonight.
Michigan: Michigan players were the pool of value plays for the last week or so, but the well has went dry. All players prices have gone up and do not see the reward anymore.
I’m agreeing with Coach on this one. Anyone worth rostering is over-priced. You can, however, always take a flyer on Forbes for MSU.
St. John’s @ Georgetown (-7) (O/U 142.5)
St. John’s: Keep an eye on Harrison. I think he tweaked his calf injury on Saturday. I believe he returned to that game but still something to keep an eye on. All of the big 3 (Pointer, Harrison, & Jordan) are in play. It is just on picking the right one. If the Red Storm go small, I believe the Hoyas will have a problem matching up with Pointer. I would Lean Pointer.
Likes: Pointer, Jordan, Harrison (If healthy)
Dislikes: Short-Shorts, OBEKPA
Georgetown: I think this is a REVENGE game for the Hoyas, as the last time these two met was last year when St. John’s crushed the Hoyas in the garden. I believe they will be motivated and come out gunning. I also like DSR at home. If the Hoyas are forced to go small this could benefit Copeland and decrease Josh Smith’s value.
Likes: Copeland, DSR
Dislikes: Josh Smith
COACH is right on with short shorts and Obekpa! Ha-ha… Coach will tell you that I play Rysheed Jordan every time he plays, but that doesn’t mean you should. I’ve been all over Copeland all year until the spot start the other day. If he’s a starter, he’s in my lineup. Give me run and burn any day…
Kentucky (-13.5) @ Tennessee (O/U 119)
Kentucky: With KAT coming back down to Earth over the weekend and his price still the same; I am going to pass. This game features 2 of the slowest teams in the SEC with a low O/U and a Kentucky blowout inevitable. PASS
Tennessee: Going against the #1 adj(D). Pass
I’ll defer to Coach on this as I am a sucker for Karl Anthony-Towns. I was on him too early in the season, but knew he‘d blow up given the chance. I’m a fade on everyone not named KAT as it’s too difficult to guess the Kentucky rotation and want no part of Tennessee against UK. Good luck to the braves souls who roster this one…
South Carolina @ Georgia (-6.5) (O/U 118.5)
South Carolina: Nothing excites me here, Low total and on the road.
Georgia: With Frazier out, I believe Mann, Gaines, and Thornton all are justifiably in play. I think Gaines (5.3k) is the best value. Mann or Thornton could also be used as well since their prices are reasonable.
Likes: Gaines, Thornton, Mann
I was rocking Carrera for a while, but his price has come up and Thornton is back. Fade… I’m probably not touching this gaem so maybe you should think twice before fading.
Texas @ Oklahoma (-6.5) (O/U 130.5)
Texas: I am tired of playing pick’em with the UT bigs. Turner is coming off a monster game this weekend and I am not chasing point, as Oklahoma is tough down low. You never know which Ridley is going to show up and will fade him as well. However, Jonathan Holmes (5.7k) price is low after coming back from a concussion and with the huge tempo boost I will take a chance on him. His mid-range game could cause problems for OU bigs. Taylor (8.2k) is expensive, however, if it turns into an open court, up and down game, he could go off.
Oklahoma: I think the big three of Hield, Spangler, and Thomas are all a bit overpriced. Hield (8.1k) is the most expensive but has the best chance to hit or exceed value has he should be a matchup problem for the Texas guards. I think Spangler and Thomas could have issues meeting value with UT’s size and defense.
So Coach advised me to get the Texas boys in the lineup once Holmes/Felix, etc. were ruled out the other week and I happily took said advice. Never again… If Barnes played Turner, he’d definitely be a stud, but instead he gets 20 minutes of burn? Think you can trust Tayler? Ha… Not me. Now now. Not ever… Get them in your lineups…
The OK boys are pricey, but are probably guaranteed to top 20. I pay up for Heild all the time and I get burned so I’m not there, but Thomas and Spangles are always in consideration due to their rebounding prowess.
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame (-12) (O/U 146)
Notre Dame: I have a dilemma here; Notre Dame gets an EXTREME tempo boost from the Demon Deacons and are playing at home. Add to the mix that Wake is near the bottom of the conference in opp. 2fg% allowing opponents to shoot over 50%. BUT Grant’s 9k price tag would mean he would have to get around 40 ftps. to reach value. Which he has only achieved once and that was his insane game vs. Duke. Connaughton (7.4k) would need 33 ftps. and is also in consideration but has not reached that number in the last 7 games. I would say both are in play but not the must play status that it looks like from a glance. Zach Auguste (5.8k)has been struggling the last 2 games on the road and could be in line for a decent night from the home cooking and his price is right.
Wake Forest: Notre Dame isn’t a stout a defensive team and does not rebound particularly rebound well. I can see Devin Thomas (7.6k) in a few of my lineups hope for a line around 16/12/2 to make value. Codi Miller-McIntyre (7.9k) is also in play here but will have a tougher time to reach value if his shoot is not falling.
Likes: Mitoglou, Thomas, CMM
At first glance, we should be all over this game. Highest O/U and the tempo boost for the Irish at home. I’m just having trouble paying up for any of the guys Coach mentioned. I do like some Vasturia to get value, but I can’t stomach Grant’s volatility and I love me some Patty Connaughton, but he burns me every time. That said; get them in your lineups! Ha-ha…
As far as Wake goes, Mitoglou is always a nice gamble as he has over-produced recently in terms of his 5.4K price tag on DK. He deserves a serious look… Thomas looks a bit volatile, but the Notre No-D should help him tonight. Meanwhile, Cody Miller-McIntyre has flirted with 20 his last couple of games.