The Coach and The Small Times (CBB 2/18/2105)
Thanks to everyone who gave us feedback and enjoyed our 1st blog yesterday. I am still chasing a seat to the March Mania, hopefully my hard work with pay off! Tonight is an enormous slate. So, instead of breaking down each game, we will just identify players that stand out to us and discuss. All prices and opinions are related to DraftKings CBB. So without further ado, The Coach and The Small Times for 2/18/2015
Kris Dunn (10.5k): I know he is expensive but last time out against DePaul he put up a monster triple double in route to a 65.8 ftps night. DePaul is still DePaul, terrible on defense and up-tempo. Load up on Dunn and expect somewhere around 45 tonight.
I can’t argue with anything Coach says about Dunn here, but that 10.5K price tag might be too much for me. The Blue Demons are a favorite target of ours as they play fast (39 AdjT) and aren’t very good on defense (224 AdjD) so I can’t argue with the logic. Dunn hasn’t reached 40 fpts in his past five games and his explosion against DePaul was at home. I, myself, am a sucker for some Joe Young. If I’m paying up at guard, that’s who I‘m playing. If you’ve stayed up late to catch any of the Oregon games, you know that Joe Young is a pure scorer and I love him at home. I realize that Colorado plays good defense and play at a slower tempo, but sometimes you just got to go with the gut. It helps that Young has 50 fpt upside and you’ll get to save that 1.1K to spend elsewhere. Michael Gbinije (8.4K) is another guard I’m considering spending up for. It’s a tough match-up against Louisville, but the dude has been on fire so I feel I wouldn’t be performing my due diligence if I didn’t at least give him a mention.
Terry Rozier (9k): With Chris Jones being suspended, look for Rozier to shoot the rock at least 20x versus the zone of the Cuse.
This seems like a no-brainer so we can move on pretty quickly. I’m a sucker for value so I might take a flyer on Quentin Snyder at 3.1K as he is currently projected to start in place of Jones.
Tyus Jones (7.7k) & Quinn Cook (7.3k): Tempo Boost National Spotlight Rivalry game @ Cameron Indoor! This game has fantasy goldmine written all over it! These two are priced where they should be and should hit value with the ball being in their hands a lot!
I, along with the rest of the world I’m sure, am going to be all over this game tonight. This game features the highest O/U (currently 157.5) and two of the more up-tempo teams in the nation. I really like Jones and Cook here, but it’s always tough to pick the right one. I probably like Tyus better than Quinn, but that’s apparent in the pricing. Matt Jones (4.6K) is always an option at home, but his price has risen a bit too much for my liking.
Wayne Blackshear (5k): Blackshear is coming off his best game in almost 2 months. I expect with Jones suspended he will be called upon to lighten the load from Rozier and Harrell. At 5k it is worth the risk to roster Blackshear. Disclaimer: One can never really trust Blackshear!!!
Blackshear, Blackshear, Blackshear… What to do with Blackshear? Every time I roster him, he underwhelms, but it always makes so much sense when you factor in playing time and his ability to score. He should have more opportunity tonight with Jones out so I can definitely see myself taking a chance with Wayne, but it is not for the faint of heart.
Bryant McIntosh (6.3k): Northwestern get the biggest tempo boost of the evening going against the Golden Gophers. McIntosh should take around 3-5 more shoots tonight than usual. If he grabs a few peripheral stats in rebounds and assists he should make value.
I’m going to be honest here… Bryant McIntosh is a somewhat new name for me, but he’s been in the DFS discussion over the past few weeks. I think I’ve trained my brain to skip right over NW when I see it on the sheet due to their 329 AdjT. Ha-ha… Coach is right-on with the tempo boost though as MINN (41 AdjT) has been a favorite target of ours all year. The fact that it’s a road game and I haven’t seen McIntosh play means I’ll probably be avoiding him.
Gerry Blakes (5.5.k): If Bo Barnes can’t go, fire up Blakes. Blakes has given the Sun Devils a spark in the last 2 games going 35 ftps in both. ASU is at home and gets a slight tempo boost from the Bruins. A lot of us got burned by the obvious play of Holder over the weekend. I will not do that again; all in on Blakes if Barnes is out.
Holy cow! Ha-ha… Good call on Blakes here as he’s fired up back-to-back 36+ fpt outings. It looks like Bo Barnes is doubtful so fire up ol’ Gerry! See? This is already helping as Blakes was not on my initial radar. Thanks, Coach!
Xavier Johnson (5.1k): Don’t ask me how Johnson is listed as a G on DK, just like Jalen Jones is too. But Xavier seems to be back at full health. Couple this with the fact that the Buff’s at almost back to full strength and facing the up-tempo Ducks tonight makes the affordable Johnson in play.
I watched Xavier Johnson in their last game out against Stanford and he is definitely not a guard. I’m not really sure why he comes off the bench either as he looks like a stud every time I see him play. He was recently injured so maybe Tad Boyle is proceeding with caution. The mysteries of coaching decisions at the collegiate level are usually puzzling to me though. Johnson should get his 20+ minutes of burn and should make value.
- Eli Carter (4.9K) & Kasey Hill (5k):* Michael Frazier is most likely out again dealing with a high ankle sprain opens up the door for the other guards worth anything to hit/exceed value. Carter and Hill are both affordable and should hit their number vs. a mediocre Commodore defense @ Home.
No! Say it isn’t so, Coach. Do we really have to talk about the Gators? Billy Donovan confuses me so I hate trying to figure out who is going to get the most playing time for Florida. It’s really just an issue with their front court though as six guys seem to play consistent minutes. It looks like they are only playing 3 guards right now so Coach’s recommendations should be right on. Eli burned me recently so I don’t know if I’m ready to forgive him yet, but both are going to get their 30+ minutes.
Geno Thorpe (4.3k): Thorpe had a coming out party of sort’s last game vs. the Terps. He had a season high in minutes and shot attempts. I know they are playing Wisconsin but in order to cash sometimes you got to go against conventional wisdom. Total flyer here!
Coach bleeds Terrapin red while I’m more of a casual Terps fan (we live in Maryland) so I’m sure this one stuck in his head. People usually have career days against MD, but with Foster and Taylor both questionable for the Nittany Lions, I think Thorpe can do it again. He has, however, reached four fouls in his past two games so be careful. Nothing irritates me more than two quick fouls to start the game, but I’m sure we’ve all been there.
Anton Beard (4.2k): @ home + vs. the terrible Missouri defense + (20+) ftps last 2 games = worthy of a value spot on some of my rosters.
The foul situation is, once again, pretty scary here as he’s fouled out of the past two. If Beard can stay on the court, he’s a very good option for the price. I mean, he is a starter in the up-tempo Arkansas style of ball. Missouri is another team Coach and I target when bouncing ideas off of each other for our lineups so keep them in the back of your mind moving forward.
To be honest, none of the top tier options excite me. Most are overpriced. I would rather save on forward and spend on guards tonight!
Frank Kaminsky (9.7k), Jahil Okafor (9.6k), & Rakeem Christmas (9.6k): Are all priced too high for me! I would not argue with anyone on playing them. Just tonight with a huge slate with a lot of options, I can’t do it.
Bobby Portis (9.1k): Big time Bobby is also expensive. So I am leaning fade as well, but he is @ home vs. Missouri. He would need 40 ftps to meet value. I don’t think he quite gets there. But my opinion might change!
I’m on board with Coach’s comments in that I won’t have any expensive front court player in my lineups tonight. They are all great options, but I just don’t see them hitting what we need for value. If I have to pick one, it’s probably Big Time Bobby (that makes me laugh). He faces that Missouri team previously discussed and should get another double-double. It’s interesting that Coach didn’t mention Henton, but his worst game of the year was against the same DePaul team that Dunn exploded on so maybe that had something to do with it? I would not fault you for paying for Henton against that bad, bad DePaul team, but it’s tough to fit him in if you’re paying up at guard.
Johnathan Williams III (6.6K): Tempo boost + good showing in previous meeting vs. Arkansas. He might be my most expensive player that I roster at the forward position tonight.
I have been on this dude all year until his most recent 40+ fpt day against Mississippi State, of course. Yuck… Williams is a solid play, but has become too volatile for me. He’s all over the place; tallying 40.3, 22.8, 13.8, 14.5 & 23.8 fpts in his last five games. I always like the bump Arkansas provides so if you’re in a gambling mood fire up Williams III and hope he doesn’t drop a 13.8 burger.
- Savon Goodman (5.4k):* If he scores at or near his last 3 games output he will shatter his value. Pair that with being at home I will take it.
Another gem from Coach at 5.4K… Goodman hasn’t started every game this season, but it looks as if he’s firmly entrenched in the starting lineup at this point. If Savon can get 30+ minutes of PT, I feel like he may be must play given the price. He even managed to put up 26.3 fpts against AZ; a team I rarely test.
Nino Williams (5.2k): Basically the same statement about if he performs like he did in the last 3 games, he should have no problem meeting value. However, he is on the road and TCU is pretty stout defensively. A little risk involved in this one.
This price range features about every F I’m looking at rostering this evening. I play Nino almost every time KSU plays, but that’s my problem so don’t make it yours. Ha-ha… He can double-double every time out given the opportunity and I’ve liked the name Nino ever since New Jack City. Some other guys I like in this price range include Jameel McKay (5.6K), J.P. Tokoto (5.3K), Kennedy Meeks (5.2K) and Tommy Hamiltion IV (4.8K). I’ve been all over McKay since his insertion into the starting lineup. Hopefully that sticks moving forward. I feel like it’s either McKay or Bryce Dejean-Jones. If BDJ were starting, I’d definitely consider him at G for his price, but it looks like it is McKay’s job to lose at the moment. Tokoto and Meeks are a great way to get exposure to the UNC/DUKE game. I prefer Tokoto, but if Meeks were given adequate playing time, he has the higher ceiling. I think Justin Jackson is in this price range as well so you can look there for exposure to this game as well. Hamilton IV is coming off of a huge game @ St. John’s so I might be chasing points here. If he can get anywhere close to 28 minutes of burn, I think he easily makes value. Not to mention that he dropped 29.8 fpts in DePaul’s last showdown with Providence. His floor is pretty damn low though…
Tyler Harris (4k): If he gets the 30 mins he has been getting the last two games vs. DePaul; Sign me up please! But he might not!
A nice way to exploit a great match-up for a terrific price! I’m a sucker for upticks in playing time. After reading what I’ve written though, I guess I’m a sucker for lots of things. Ha-ha… IF he gets his 30 minutes, he should get you your 20 fpts to make value. Is always risky down here in value town…
Phil Cofer(3.7k): If he gets minutes and doesn’t miss every single shot he takes he should be able to reach value vs. BC.
I’ve played Cofer so many times! Ugh… When you watch FSU, he stands out and I’ve heard the announcers talk about his amazing work he puts in at practice (Yes, we are talking about practice). You’d really have to get lucky with this one though. He doesn’t always get to 20 minutes of playing time so that scares me a bit. If I’m down in this level, I think I might be looking to Jarquez Smith (3.5K). He is a much better scorer than Cofer and gets about the same run.
Devin Robinson (3.8K): You never know with the Gators. If he gets run vs. Vandy @ home, he could be a successful punt play.
Florida again, Coach? Dang… I fired up Robinson after his 14/7/3 performance against Ole Miss figuring that he’d be the main benefactor with Frazier out (always chasing points). I might have been right, but homeboy racked up 4 fouls, went 0-4 from the field and ended up with one rebound against Texas A&M. The wound is pretty fresh with this one, so I might not be able to stomach Robinson. The matchup and price are right though so if you can figure out what Billy is doing with this rotation, fire him up! If he’s not in my lineups, he’ll surely do well! Ha-ha…