The D.E.N.N.I.S System - Quaker State 400
Welcome everyone to the first edition of The D.E.N.N.I.S System. I am your host nickfromcwe, and I can assure you that this article will be either a great read that helps in your decision making for the weekend or the ramblings of a madman. If either is true, I will achieved my goal and stuck to the spirit of the designer of the system.
I have been a member here for a long time, though I have never really been active, but I decided to change that. I am going to write this article about NASCAR, but will likely incorporate it into the NFL and NBA when those seasons roll around. I never liked NASCAR, but I got bored after the NFL season ended in 2016 and started watching. I bought Stevie’s package (and still do to compare takes) every week and have been very, very successful.
What is the D.E.N.N.I.S system? It is a fool proof system designed to gain a woman’s undying love, but now applied to DFS. Here is how it works:
D – Demonstrate Value
E – Engage Physically
N – Nurture Dependency
N – Neglect Emotionally
I – Inspire Hope
S – Separate Entirely
As you can see, it is very easy to how we can apply these categories to drivers or players on a slate by slate basis.
The race begins in under 10 hours, so let’s get right to it!
Well Denny Hamlin, you sly fox, by failing inspection you certainly have demonstrated a great deal of value to us. You will be starting 36th in a race where it is hard to not see you as a top ten car. When not wrecking, you have been very good at this track. Hamlin is an easy piece to use in your cash games, and someone in general who you should have high ownership shares of regardless of his chalkiness.
After doing to damage to well over half the field in the Coke Zero 400 last weekend, it is hard to not see someone doing Ricky Stenhouse Jr. some damage this week. While many might think by gones will be by gones, it will not shock me to see someone with the initials Kyle Busch or Brad Keselowski give him a not so friendly bump this week. Despite his prowess on 1.5 mile tracks this year, high starting position and a target on his back will move me away from Ricky entirely.
The NASCAR DFS world has become dependent on old Martin Truex Jr. at these 1.5 mile tracks, and that does not change this week. He has the pole, a very fast car, and pole sitters have typically held their own at Kentucky. It does not hurt that Erik Jones is on the front row with him, as the lack of his experience should ensure an early race lead for MTJ. This track has been favorable for both Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski as well, as they have earned 5 of the 7 victories in cup races here. A fun and totally useless note (?) is that Keselowski has won all the races in even numbered years, and this is 2018. He has not looked great recently, but a familiar track can certainly change things up for a driver.
Chase Elliott has neglected me emotionally through all of the 2018 season. For much of the start, I felt as if a win was just around the corner, but he and his teammates have just not been able to put anything together. This week, he starts in a position (16th) which seems like there is nothing but upside, but it seems like whenever forced into trusting Chase, I get neglected emotionally. I will not be using him in my cash games, and will go under the field on him in tournaments until he does something to make me feel different about him.
If anything, 2018 has been a great year of hope for Matt DiBendetto. He has outperformed the equipment he is in and finds himself in a position this week where he should be able to finish much higher than his 37th starting position. He did have very bad things to say about his car after qualifying, but a lot can change overnight and in the race. My expectations this week are for ownership to roll in as Hamlin, Truex and then DiBendetto as the highest owned drivers. I think MDB makes a good cash game play, but there is a lot of merit to fading him if his car cannot make the turnaround. I will eat the ownership in cash, but will look to other drivers in his range, and maybe lower, to play in my tournaments. I am looking to halve the ownership of MDB in tournaments.
There is certainly a case to be made for Erik Jones to be a guy you have no ownership of. He is starting second along with Truex, which sounds like instant doom. The driver in the second position has actually been the highest scoring driver here over the past five years, averaging 50 fantasy points. The thing is, those drivers have typically been the likes of Truex and Keselowski, and despite a fun win at Daytona last week, Jones is not in that group yet.
Even with all that said, I still think I want to keep some ownership of Jones, who even with a top 5 and some fastest laps could justify his price tag. One guy who I am not excited about having ownership on this week, and who I am going to separate entirely from is Ryan Newman. The thing about Newman is that he could shock you a win a race. We saw that last year. The problem is that, unlike Jones, him falling 3 spots would make him unplayable. I think falling three spots is being friendly for Newman, so I am going to have no ownership on him this week.
Chalk Winner: I really believe we are going to end up seeing Truex outright dominate this race and I am going to have a solid amount of one dominator builds, some two dominator builds and no three dominator builds. I think Kyle Busch is likely to be dominator #2, and I am going to have significantly lower ownership on Harvick this week. He has been a top ten car at this track for the past 5 years, which is something no one else in the field can say. The problem is that his results tend to come in the bottom half of the top ten. At his price, we need to have laps led and I can see that being a problem this week.
Outside Shot: I want to go with Denny Hamlin or Jimmie Johnson here due to their starting spot, and somewhat the same with Kyle Larson. I am actually going to go with Ryan Blaney. For much of the year, Blaney has looked like a car on the brink of winning. That is until he makes a stupid mistake or his pit crew does something to set the car back. Admittedly, one hole in my game is projecting ownership, but I think it would shock me to see Blaney as a highly owned driver this weekend with how everything stacks up. He has enough upside for place differential and a price that makes it tempting to try to at least double the field on ownership of Blaney.
Cash Favorites: Truex, Kyle Busch, Johnson, Hamlin, DiBendetto, Larson, Kahne
Tournament Favorites: Blaney, Jones, Almirola, Kurt Busch, Buescher, Wallace, Ty Dillon