The Dawg Pound: Macromanaging EPL DFS (Part One)

Just a quick one today, on how Vegas (or European bookmakers, in this case) is our friend:

I’ve covered this in previous blogs (go back and read them, I’ll wait!), but as a reminder and recap: betting lines should play an important role in our process for soccer DFS (as of now on Statclash, and hopefully soon on Draftkings).

Just like in other sports, we want to target players with a high over/under (relatively speaking, 3 is a GIANT over/under for soccer – most of the time we’re looking at 2.5 that have a high vig on the over). We want those players to be offensive players. Obviously we’ll also want to target defensive players from games with a low over/under. One slight caveat is that sometimes we may target defenders in a high over/under, as long as their team is a big favorite. This will be a little different from the World Cup, because even good teams were not expected to score many goals in the latter stages – many predicted scoring lines were still low. When the title contenders play the minnows in the Premier League, we can expect a few crooked scores (3-0’s, 4-0’s, etc.).

Consideration should also be given to season-long wagers. Skybet(dot)com shows the following odds to win the Premiership:

Chelsea 15/8
Manchester City 12/5
Manchester Utd 9/2
Arsenal 6/1
Liverpool 11/1
Tottenham 66/1
Everton 125/1

Newcastle 750/1
Southampton 1000/1
Stoke 2500/1
Aston Villa 3000/1
Sunderland 4000/1
West Ham 4000/1
Swansea 4000/1
Crystal Palace 5000/1
Hull 5000/1
Q.P.R 5000/1
Leicester 5000/1
West Brom 5000/1
Burnley 10000/1

Obviously there is a big gap in expected finish between the top 7 and the rest of the league. Whenever possible, we’ll want to target players on those top 7 teams, especially when they’re facing the bottom feeders. Some sites offer odds on top goal scorer as well – barring injury these should become familiar names to us (if they aren’t already) as we’ll want to target these players when they have positive matchups and are reasonably priced.

Bonus info: I’d highly recommend taking a gander at last year’s table to check out the goal scoring records, especially home and away. While every squad has some changes, and some squads have new managers, it’s still a good guideline to identify high powered versus conservative offenses, and staunch versus leaky defenses.

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Comments

  • astukas

    • 717

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Blogger of the Month

    Hull at 5000/1 seems like a bargain. SHIP IT

  • medavis6

    Will you quit being so coy and just give me all the best picks for Saturday already?

    Just kidding, I always appreciate somebody doing soccer write-ups on RG. Good work! Keep it up!

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