The Dawg Pound: Macromanaging EPL DFS (Part One)
Just a quick one today, on how Vegas (or European bookmakers, in this case) is our friend:
I’ve covered this in previous blogs (go back and read them, I’ll wait!), but as a reminder and recap: betting lines should play an important role in our process for soccer DFS (as of now on Statclash, and hopefully soon on Draftkings).
Just like in other sports, we want to target players with a high over/under (relatively speaking, 3 is a GIANT over/under for soccer – most of the time we’re looking at 2.5 that have a high vig on the over). We want those players to be offensive players. Obviously we’ll also want to target defensive players from games with a low over/under. One slight caveat is that sometimes we may target defenders in a high over/under, as long as their team is a big favorite. This will be a little different from the World Cup, because even good teams were not expected to score many goals in the latter stages – many predicted scoring lines were still low. When the title contenders play the minnows in the Premier League, we can expect a few crooked scores (3-0’s, 4-0’s, etc.).
Consideration should also be given to season-long wagers. Skybet(dot)com shows the following odds to win the Premiership:
Manchester City 12/5
Manchester Utd 9/2
Aston Villa 3000/1
West Ham 4000/1
Crystal Palace 5000/1
West Brom 5000/1
Obviously there is a big gap in expected finish between the top 7 and the rest of the league. Whenever possible, we’ll want to target players on those top 7 teams, especially when they’re facing the bottom feeders. Some sites offer odds on top goal scorer as well – barring injury these should become familiar names to us (if they aren’t already) as we’ll want to target these players when they have positive matchups and are reasonably priced.
Bonus info: I’d highly recommend taking a gander at last year’s table to check out the goal scoring records, especially home and away. While every squad has some changes, and some squads have new managers, it’s still a good guideline to identify high powered versus conservative offenses, and staunch versus leaky defenses.