The Great American GPP: Set-Based Reasoning, part 1
A busy week delayed the writing of this post, however, the delay gave me a chance to review a few less than optimal results, and to get a sense if bad picks, bad luck, or bad lineup construction were to blame. I’ve been doing ok so far this year, so the bad week was a good reminder that just like poker or the ponies (or writing) playing MLB DFS with an edge requires a great deal of work, every single day. The performance of human beings can only be predicted and not predetermined by our models, and no matter how good a match up looks on paper, no one really knows what’s going to happen after the national anthem gets played. This is why in poker, and in DFS, knowing the fundamentals of proper play and operating according to strategy that is getting the best of it is so crucial. They are the only tools gamblers have in the eternal war against luck. For some of the under performing lineups variance was to blame, but I also discovered mistakes; I had rushed, took a few short cuts, and as a result, I missed a few Boston permutations, and a few Maximum K rosters that I normally would have created, or a least considered.
And that brings me to installment 3 of the Great American GPP. This week we promised to finish the three part series on rhetorical models and lineup construction. Take a quick look at the last two if you’re new.
With our thesis/battle plan devised, and all of our INVENTIO ready to go, the nest step is to construct the body of the essay. In my structural model, the body of an essay’s purpose is to win the argument. The body is made up of a series of paragraphs, each of which presents one bit of data, or research, or evidence that proves the thesis and is connected to each of the other paragraphs. Thus, each body paragraph is connected to both the thesis/battle plan, and the other paragraphs, creating a sense of unity of the entire essay working together.
Switching from our essay to our lineup, we already have a thesis or plan of attack for winning the GPP, so now our job is to compose the body, or the lineup, which will put the plan into practice and win the GPP. Every slot in the lineup, like every paragraph in the essay, needs to work in harmony with all the other slots, ensuring efficiency, coverage, and upside.
Often there’s a lot of material which needs to get into the essay, but if it just gets haphazardly thrown into the text, instead of winning by persuading my audience that my ideas are the best and I’m an intelligent guy, I’ll lose the argument and the audience (and the money they were just waiting to hand over to me) and leave them with an impression that my mind works something like this
In my structural model, this is when we would learn organization. In the classic model DISPOSITIO and ELOCUTIO are called for, and oddly, we shall see that they actually can be used to design and structure a lineup.
We start with our thesis. Perhaps we have decided the best way to attack this GPP is to pay up for pitching, and to roster two K aces with upside, or two pitchers with incredible matchups. Or perhaps, we have planned to attack with offensive production and upside. Another option is the balanced lineup thesis, or perhaps we have decided to attack by being completely contrarian. The point is that each of those different plans require a completely different kind of lineup, and that each lineup requires a different kind of dispositio of its players. Remember, we do not just want to roster haphazardly, moving the mouse pointer from P to P to 1B to 2B and so on with out stopping to think about how each paragraph, or each roster space connects back to the thesis, and also to each other. The goal is to create a unity of performance and purpose, with the inclusion and ordering of every singe player the result of thinking and calculating which particular set will give us the best of it
more to come