The Gut Check for January 16, 2020
Hope everyone enjoyed a Markelle Fultz triple-double late-night hammer last night, this is the Gut Check. My name is Shawn Cripps and I’m a Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) by day and a DFS player by night. I’ve been playing DFS for the past 5-6 years, mostly on FanDuel, but I’ve started to dabble a bit with DraftKings. I’ve played mostly NFL, NBA and MLB but have tried other sports like WNBA, PGA and MMA. I’m not a high stakes player by any means, just really doing this for the fun of it (at most, probably $50-$100 a night with most of my action in GPPs). I’ve won a few GPPs with my approach over the years and hopefully you can take something away from what I write! Now let’s get started!
I’ve mostly been a single entry style of player over the years but have now dabbled into multi-entering the $0.25 Fadeaway and the $0.50 Mini-Max among other GPPs. Overall, I’ve been pretty consistent. Not winning anything big by any stretch (and not losing a lot either) but if you decide to take the plunge, I highly recommend using any lineup builder and building your own projections.
For those of you who remember my blogs from 2018, you’ll realize that I do this blog as simply a first-look approach with no big statistical reference to back up my plays. The blog will also be used to look back at the previous slate, my player exposures, and where I went right or wrong. It goes without saying that news comes fast and furious throughout the day and can change pretty much everything in a given slate. If you enjoy the blog, feel free to drop a comment or a like. For past blog posts, feel free to look at my profile under my username srcripps.
I had 15 lineups in the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll and several $2 100-man contests (top 12 pay) on FD and maxed out the $1 20-entry And One on DK. Total fees paid across both sites $85.30 ($65.30 on FD and $20.00 on DK). I have to say that this was my best night overall for me in NBA this season, I ended up winning $430.22 for a profit of $344.92 (404.36% ROI) ($154.00 won on FD and $276.22 won on DK). For the 10-game main slate, here’s a look at my top 5 player exposures:
My best lineup on FD in the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll was 222nd out of 26,812 entries (ended up winning $12.00, but only cashed 7 of my 15 lineups)
PG Luka Doncic 62.5 (9.3% owned)
PG Malcolm Brogdon 35.2 (17.9% owned)
SG Zach LaVine 48.9 (31.7% owned)
SG Josh Richardson 34.0 (19.5% owned)
SF Tobias Harris 53.5 (34.3% owned)
SF Jaylen Brown 37.4 (40.5% owned)
PF Nemanja Bjelica 38.9 (22.3% owned)
PF Lauri Markkanen 25.1 (20.9% owned)
C JaVale McGee 33.8 (6.2% owned)
Total 369.3 (Winning Lineup was 398.9, cash line was 327.8)
My best lineup on DK in the $1 And One was 5th out of 59,453 entries (ended up winning $200.00, and cashed 16 of my 20 lineups, definitely my best result for NBA on DK)
PG Dennis Schroder 41.75 (5.2% owned)
SG Markelle Fultz 55.75 (5.2% owned)
SF Jaylen Brown 43.5 (35.2% owned)
PF Daniel Theis 30.25 (11.1% owned)
C Domantas Sabonis 58.25 (2.7% owned)
G Terrence Ross 26.5 (18.4% owned)
F Tobias Harris 56.5 (26.4% owned)
UTIL Hassan Whiteside 45.5 (4.6% owned)
Total 358.0 (Winning Lineup was 369.0, cash line was 285.5)
A couple of notes to take away from all this: These types of nights don’t happen very often in DFS so you enjoy them while you can. I was glad that my Domantas Sabonis pick worked out as well as it did. We know what happened just a short while ago in which he was announced in and then after lock, announced to be out. He wasn’t in my top 5 for player exposures but I did have him in 3 of my FD lineups (they all cashed coincidentally) and only 1 of my DK lineups (see above). Markelle Fultz was another key piece of my lineups and once Evan Fournier was announced out, I wanted as much Fultz as I could get. I know the matchup wasn’t the best but he was a cheap play that was going to get over 30 minutes with no real backup PG to take minutes from him. The winner of the And One on DK had a 2.3% owned Michael Porter Jr. who went for 37.5 points, along with the Fultz pick. The winner of the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll, jakekings916, also had Fultz at 4.3% ownership but also had Kendrick Nunn (3% ownership for 46.6 points) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (0.4% ownership and 30.7 points). Congrats to you two, great job!
We have a nice 5-game main slate tonight across the industry. I’ll try to comment game-by-game just to see if we can uncover some fantasy goodness.
Phoenix visits the New York Knicks with Phoenix favored by 3 with a 225.5 Vegas total. A lot of value could potentially open up for Phoenix as they are without Kelly Oubre tonight. Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson should get the bulk of those minutes. You can always go back to Devin Booker, Ricky Rubio and Deandre Ayton as they soak up most of the usage and should do well against the Knicks. On New York’s side, it’s Elfrid Payton “revenge narrative” night. He’ll be in my player pool along with Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson. If New York keeps it close, you’ll want to have some of those pieces.
Boston (on a B2B) visits Milwaukee with Milwaukee favored by 8 with a 223.5 Vegas total. Boston could be without Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum tonight (both questionable) so that could make life tough for the Celtics against the Bucks. The only players worth rostering from Boston are Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart, Enes Kanter and Daniel Theis. Until news comes out about Brown and Tatum’s statuses, there’s not a lot to like about the Celtics. Milwaukee begins with Giannis Antetokounmpo. He should feast in this matchup and if it stays competitive, he should see 30+ minutes. I will also include Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton in my player pool but they’re secondary plays for me at the moment.
Utah visits New Orleans with Utah favored by 4 with a 226.5 Vegas total. Donovan Mitchell price has dropped to $6.6K on FD, $7.4K on DK. He has struggled mightily the past few weeks but this looks like a “get right” spot for him. I’ll definitely have some shares at that price point. Rudy Gobert should have a great game against Jahlil Okafor. He’s priced to $9.2K on both sites but has 50-point upside against the Pelicans. Bojan Bogdanovic and Joe Ingles enter the secondary play conversation for me, great price points for them in the mid $5K range. For the Pelicans, Lonzo Ball has been doing everything for them. He’s priced up to $7.9K on DK (from $6.9K) but I’ll still have some of him. Derrick Favors is questionable with his hamstring and if he doesn’t go, Jahlil Okafor (questionable at the moment) and Jaxson Hayes will try to contain Gobert (not easy to do either). Just another week before Zion’s debut, Pels fans!!!
Denver (on a B2B) visits Golden State with Denver favored by 6 with a 214.5 Vegas total. If Jamal Murray sits tonight, I’ll be firing up Monte Morris if he gets the start. This is one of the late-night hammers so we may not get the news before lock but if we do, I’ll be on board for $4.0K on FD, $4.4K on DK. Gary Harris is questionable with a groin issue, so that’ll bring Torrey Craig back into the mix. He played 26 minutes in the start last night and didn’t do very much with it. He’s a defensive juggernaut for Denver so if he’s not getting those peripheral stats, he’s not worth rostering. However, he’s facing Golden State who are prone to turnovers. I like Michael Porter Jr. in this matchup as well. He’s priced at $3.6K on both sites and appears to be great value at the moment. I’m hoping that Mike Malone gives him some extra run against a bad Warriors team. Speaking of the Warriors, Damion Lee is back and at $4.9K on FD, $5.0K on DK, I’m interested at that point. D’Angelo Russell and Draymond Green are going to have to have the games of their lives to beat the Nuggets. Omari Spellman, Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson III are all secondary plays for me.
Orlando (on a B2B) visits the other LA team tonight as the Clippers are favored by 11 with a 216.5 Vegas total. Markelle Fultz will have a harder time tonight with Patrick Beverley defense. If Evan Fournier is out again tonight, fire up Terrence Ross. I think the goal for Orlando was to win one of these LA games and since they beat the Lakers tonight, they may not be 100% committed to beat the Clippers. I love Kawhi Leonard a ton in this matchup. He’s $10.1K on both sites but he might be my favorite big spend of the night. I will also have a ton of Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams at their high $6K price points.
Those are my initial takes on the slate. Good luck tonight Grinders and let’s win that DFS money!!!!