The Gut Check for January 17, 2020

Hope everyone enjoyed a night where 400 was hardly past the cash line, this is the Gut Check. My name is Shawn Cripps and I’m a Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) by day and a DFS player by night. I’ve been playing DFS for the past 5-6 years, mostly on FanDuel, but I’ve started to dabble a bit with DraftKings. I’ve played mostly NFL, NBA and MLB but have tried other sports like WNBA, PGA and MMA. I’m not a high stakes player by any means, just really doing this for the fun of it (at most, probably $50-$100 a night with most of my action in GPPs). I’ve won a few GPPs with my approach over the years and hopefully you can take something away from what I write! Now let’s get started!

I’ve mostly been a single entry style of player over the years but have now dabbled into multi-entering the $0.25 Fadeaway and the $0.50 Mini-Max among other GPPs. Overall, I’ve been pretty consistent. Not winning anything big by any stretch (and not losing a lot either) but if you decide to take the plunge, I highly recommend using any lineup builder and building your own projections.

For those of you who remember my blogs from 2018, you’ll realize that I do this blog as simply a first-look approach with no big statistical reference to back up my plays. The blog will also be used to look back at the previous slate, my player exposures, and where I went right or wrong. It goes without saying that news comes fast and furious throughout the day and can change pretty much everything in a given slate. If you enjoy the blog, feel free to drop a comment or a like. For past blog posts, feel free to look at my profile under my username srcripps.

Yesterday’s Results

I had 15 lineups in the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll and several $2 100-man contests (top 12 pay) on FD and maxed out both the $1 20-entry And One and the $4 20-entry Four Point Play on DK. Total fees paid across both sites $165.30 ($65.30 on FD and $100.00 on DK). Overall considering how high-scoring the slate became, I ended up losing money overall. I won $145.75 for a loss of $19.55 (-11.83% ROI) ($74.00 won on FD and $71.75 won on DK). For the 5-game main slate, here’s a look at my top 5 player exposures:

For FD:

Donovan Mitchell (87%)
Derrick Favors (67%)
Monte Morris (67%)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (60%)
Will Barton & Lonzo Ball (47%)
35 players in my player pool for a 5-game slate

For DK:

Michael Porter Jr (90%)
Monte Morris (85%)
Markelle Fultz (75%)
Brandon Ingram (55%)
Bojan Bogdanovic (45%)
36 players in my player pool for a 5-game slate

My best lineup on FD in the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll was 538th out of 26,812 entries (ended up winning $8.00, but did cash 9 of my 15 lineups)

PG Lonzo Ball 33.3 (37.7% owned)
PG Ricky Rubio 65.1 (32.6% owned)
SG Donovan Mitchell 59.2 (55.8% owned)
SG Marcus Smart 39.8 (9.5% owned)
SF Giannis Antetokounmpo 64.9 (56.4% owned)
SF Bojan Bogdanovic 33.6 (11.9% owned)
PF Derrick Favors 52.7 (19.7% owned)
PF Michael Porter Jr 46.5 (29.4% owned)
C Nikola Jokic 46.4 (21.4% owned)

Total 441.5 (Winning Lineup was 483.1, cash line was 380.2)

My best lineup on DK in the $4 Four Point Play was 742nd out of 32,699 entries (ended up winning $17.25, but only cashed 6 of my 20 lineups)

PG Kemba Walker 62.75 (15.3% owned)
SG Josh Hart 26.25 (12.1% owned)
SF Bojan Bogdanovic 36.25 (19.9% owned)
PF Brandon Ingram 69.5 (26.8% owned)
C Julius Randle 43.5 (21.9% owned)
G Donovan Mitchell 62.5 (36.4% owned)
F Michael Porter Jr 47.0 (54.4% owned)
UTIL Monte Morris 19.25 (48.6% owned)

Total 367.0 (Winning Lineup was 444.0, cash line was 325.25)

A couple of notes to take away from all this: I have to give credit to Dbl11Dwn and Jenstar who helped me get off of Mikal Bridges yesterday. When I started my crunches/research in the afternoon, I was convinced that Bridges was going to have a good game if he was starting and getting over 30 minutes at his price point. Upon further review, the usage situation wouldn’t change all that much with Bridges in a starting role because Booker/Rubio/Ayton are the primary options. Bridges would assume more of a P.J. Tucker #kent-bazemore)Kent Bazemore”:/players/kent-bazemore-13987 role in which they just facilitate a little, create screens and stand in the corner with their hands in their shorts. We all know that type of player in DFS and Bridges played one of them last night. The three of us also discussed Mitchell Robinson. I had him in a lot of lineups at first but dialed it down when I started looking at game logs and how the coaching staff has used him. He’s inconsistent, his minutes were inconsistent and you just never know what you’re going to get with Robinson with his proneness to fouls. He actually did well with 35.6 FD FPTS, 31.5 DK FPTS at a $4.7K price tag but this was a night in which you needed Deandre Ayton as your center (58.2 FD FPTS, 59.5 DK FPTS). Mason Plumlee went off for 43.8 FD FPTS, 44.5 DK FPTS at a $3.7K FD price tag, $4.2K DK price tag. With two of the five games going to overtime, this was one of those nights where most of the chalkier plays hit (Donovan Mitchell, Giannis Antetokounmpo) but some did not (Lonzo Ball, Devin Booker, Lou Williams, Jerami Grant) and it was just one of those overall high-scoring nights. Hopefully, you got off of some of those bad plays last night.

Today’s Slate

We have a nice 7-game main slate tonight across the industry. I’ll try to comment game-by-game just to see if we can uncover some fantasy goodness.

Minnesota visits Indiana with no Vegas total at the time of publication. With no Jeff Teague to steal minutes away, Shabazz Napier will have a pivotal role in Minnesota’s offense going forward. Karl Anthony-Towns is questionable once again but looks to be closer to returning. Domantas Sabonis price has risen on both sites, $9.0K on FD, $8.6K on DK. He’s priced fairly well now. T.J. Warren price has gone down to $5.4K on FD, $5.3K on DK. He gets over 30 minutes a game and has shown some inconsistency, but I’m willing to roll him out in some lineups at this price point. Malcolm Brogdon is still relatively cheap for his production at a $6.8K FD price point, $7.0K on DK.

Chicago visits Philadelphia with Philadelphia favored by 8 with a 216.5 Vegas total. I’ll continue to roster the big four in Philadelphia with no Joel Embiid (Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris and Al Horford). They get most of the usage on this team at the moment and their prices have shot up at a result. I won’t have as much of them as I have over the past week but they’re still in my player pool regardless. Lauri Markkanen and Tomas Satoransky are listed as questionable while Daniel Gafford is out. Thaddeus Young takes on more of a starter role in Gafford’s absence and at his $4.6K FD price point, $5.0K on DK, I’ll have some interest. Zach LaVine price went down to $8.7K on DK from $9.3K, so if Chicago keeps this game close, it’ll be on the back of LaVine. Satoransky has done well this season and I’ll have some shares if he plays.

Washington visits Toronto with Toronto favored by 10 with a 229 Vegas total. Marc Gasol returned last game and played 32 minutes against Oklahoma City. At his price point ($5.0K on FD, $4.8K on DK), he’s a nice option for a low-priced center. Fred VanVleet is considered a game-time decision tonight so his presence might muddy the waters of the Toronto starting lineup. Pascal Siakam has played 30 minutes a game since coming back from injury and his price dropped to $7.6K on FD, but went up to $7.9K on DK. Siakam will have to have a great game to beat the Washington frontcourt who is now starting to get fully healthy. I like Kyle Lowry but the price point is getting pretty high at $8.4K on FD, $8.8K on DK. I’ll have some shares but not a lot. If Washington is to win this game, Bradley Beal will have to be balling. At a $7.5K on FD, $7.6K on DK price point, I’m intrigued. He could certainly struggle against Toronto’s perimeter defense, but he’s a fine GPP play tonight at his price point. All of the other Washington players are merely dart throws for GPPs, very much secondary plays for me.

Cleveland visits Memphis with Memphis favored by 8 with a 229 Vegas total. I’m definitely on the Memphis side for this one as Jonas Valanciunas, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Ja Morant stand out as core plays for me. Cleveland is going to have to rely on Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson and Collin Sexton to keep this game close. Cleveland can keep this game competitive and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this game being the game to have for most of your DFS action.

Miami visits Oklahoma City with no Vegas total at the time of publication. It’s hard to predict where this game is going to go but I will have Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn, Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Steven Adams and Danilo Gallinari in my player pool. This could be a defensive-minded affair so the score could be on the low side. With defense in mind, Jimmy Butler and Chris Paul along with Steven Adams and Bam Adebayo should get some extra peripheral stats.

Atlanta visits San Antonio with the Spurs favored by 8 with a slate-high 230.5 Vegas total. Trae Young should be a core play for me tonight as he faces DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. Young is turnover-prone which suits DeRozan and Dejounte Murray just fine. John Collins will have to have a good game against Aldridge and the Spurs’ frontcourt in order for the Hawks to win outright. Jeff Teague is not expected to play tonight so I’ll have some shares of Kevin Huerter ($5.5K on FD, $6.7K on DK).

The late-night hammer pits Portland against Dallas with no Vegas total at the time of publication. Luka Doncic against Damian Lillard, that’s the key matchup to watch. But I will have Kristaps Porzingis (if he plays with no minute restriction), Hassan Whiteside, C.J. McCollum and Carmelo Anthony in my player pool. Kent Bazemore, you can stay on my bench!

Those are my initial takes on the slate. Good luck tonight Grinders and let’s win that DFS money!!!!

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