The Gut Check for January 19, 2020
Hope everyone enjoys a Kent Bazemore trade as much as I do, this is the Gut Check. My name is Shawn Cripps and I’m a Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) by day and a DFS player by night. I’ve been playing DFS for the past 5-6 years, mostly on FanDuel, but I’ve started to dabble a bit with DraftKings. I’ve played mostly NFL, NBA and MLB but have tried other sports like WNBA, PGA and MMA. I’m not a high stakes player by any means, just really doing this for the fun of it (at most, probably $50-$200 a night with most of my action in GPPs). I’ve won a few GPPs with my approach over the years and hopefully you can take something away from what I write! Now let’s get started!
I’ve mostly been a single entry style of player over the years but have now dabbled into multi-entering the $0.25 Fadeaway and the $0.50 Mini-Max among other GPPs. Overall, I’ve been pretty consistent. Not winning anything big by any stretch (and not losing a lot either) but if you decide to take the multi-entry plunge, I highly recommend using any lineup builder and building your own projections into your process.
For those of you who remember my blogs from 2018, you’ll realize that I do this blog as simply a first-look approach with no big statistical reference to back up my plays. The blog will also be used to look back at the previous slate, my player exposures, and where I went right or wrong. It goes without saying that news comes fast and furious throughout the day and can change pretty much everything in a given slate. If you enjoy the blog, feel free to drop a comment or a like. For past blog posts, feel free to look at my profile under my username srcripps.
I had 15 lineups in the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll and several $2 100-man contests (top 12 pay) on FD and maxed out both the $1 20-entry And One and the $4 20-entry Four Point Play on DK. Total fees paid across both sites $165.30 ($65.30 on FD and $100.00 on DK). Considering the amount of value plays that opened up last night, I ended up on the losing side. I won $97.50 for a loss of $67.80 (-41.02% ROI) ($44.00 won on FD and $52.50 won on DK). For the 9-game main slate, here’s a look at my top 5 player exposures:
My best lineup on FD in the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll was 418th out of 16,087 entries (ended up winning $8.00, but only cashed 7 of my 15 lineups)
PG Derrick Rose 44.9 (16.2% owned)
PG Markelle Fultz 37.2 (22.8% owned)
SG James Harden 48.7 (16.4% owned)
SG Marcus Smart 66.0 (35.7% owned)
SF LeBron James 55.0 (36.2% owned)
SF Gordon Hayward 44.9 (42.5% owned)
PF Marvin Bagley III 35.9 (17.9% owned)
PF Dario Saric 31.7 (5.8% owned)
C Tristan Thompson 31.6 (13.2% owned)
Total 395.9 (Winning Lineup was 452.7, cash line was 354.9)
My best lineup on DK in the $4 Four Point Play was 2,122nd out of 20,808 entries (ended up winning $12.00, but only cashed 5 of my 20 lineups)
PG Derrick Rose 45.0 (8.0% owned)
SG Evan Fournier 25.0 (9.0% owned)
SF Gordon Hayward 44.75 (38.4% owned)
PF Jayson Tatum 50.0 (54.3% owned)
C Andre Drummond 53.75 (21.1% owned)
G D’Angelo Russell 53.5 (11.7% owned)
F Eric Paschall 37.25 (23.5% owned)
UTIL Anfernee Simons 17.75 (57.3% owned)
Total 327.00 (Winning Lineup was 401.5, cash line was 308.75)
A couple of notes to take away from all this: News came fast and furious throughout the afternoon and evening leading up to lock. The Kent Bazemore trade propelled several Trailblazers into the spotlight at relatively minimum salary. Kemba Walker being scratched gave us Brad Wanamaker and also gave us chalky Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum. If you were able to decipher through the noise, you probably had a good night, but if you manage to roster more Anfernee Simons than you should’ve, you probably ended up on the losing end. Gary Trent Jr. was the Trailblazer to have last night as tummysticksNY rode a 2.1% owned Gary Trent Jr. to victory in the $4 Four Point Play for a cool $5K. Mikal Bridges (5.2% ownership for 41.6 fantasy points) was another standout for Phoenix and he helped sonnydelcheh win the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll for $3K. Congratulations to you both! Well done!
Since most of the DFS community will be focusing on the NFL playoffs today (including yours truly), the NBA has given us only a MASSIVE 2-game slate. I’ll try to comment game-by-game just to see if we can uncover some fantasy goodness.
Miami visits San Antonio for a 3pm EST game with Miami favored by 1 with a 221 Vegas total and Indiana visits Denver for a 8pm EST game with Denver favored by 1 with a 212.5 Vegas total. It’s really hard to differentiate yourself from the pack on a 2-game slate. Tonight’s NFL slate will be another fine example of that as you split the top prize with a few hundred other entries. I would recommend not going heavy with your bankroll on a 2-game slate as the more entries you do, the more you run into -EV value. On FanDuel where your slate is locked after 3pm, it would be wiser to load up on the Miami/San Antonio game and I would suspect the majority of players will do that. You have your usual plays like Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, DeMar Derozan and LaMarcus Aldridge but you could also take a shot or two at some lower-owned value like Patrick Mills and Duncan Robinson to try to get ahead of the field. In the Indiana/Denver game, Michael Porter Jr. is no longer minimum price but is still an interesting play. Domantas Sabonis is down to $7.9K on DK. It’s a tougher matchup against Nikola Jokic but I still have some interest at that price point. If Gary Harris is ruled out, I’d be willing to go back to Malik Beasley. Mason Plumlee is another lower-owned play you could roster to differentiate yourself and you hope he gets the same type of run he got last game against Golden State. Indiana does have a bigger backcourt with Sabonis and Turner so Denver may need to matchup with that size and Plumlee fits the bill with Jokic at the 5.
As for the NFL today, I’m intrigued with the Titans and I’m giving them some credit, moreso than the mass media is portraying. I smell an upset in the making with Tennessee squeezing out a narrow victory on the back of Derrick Henry and some timely turnovers by Kansas City. On the NFC side, the 49ers should handle Green Bay but you just never know with Aaron Rodgers. I can see another close game but ultimately with the 49ers winning by a field goal. Jimmy Garoppolo will take care of the football and not cause any unnecessary turnovers en route to the victory.
Those are my initial takes on the slate. Good luck tonight Grinders and let’s win that DFS money!!!!