The Gut Check for January 21, 2020

Hope everyone enjoyed MLK Day as much as Damian Lillard did, this is the Gut Check. My name is Shawn Cripps and I’m a Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) by day and a DFS player by night. I’ve been playing DFS for the past 5-6 years, mostly on FanDuel, but I’ve started to dabble a bit with DraftKings. I’ve played mostly NFL, NBA and MLB but have tried other sports like WNBA, PGA and MMA. I’m not a high stakes player by any means, just really doing this for the fun of it (at most, probably $50-$200 a night with most of my action in GPPs). I’ve won a few GPPs with my approach over the years and hopefully you can take something away from what I write! Now let’s get started!

I’ve mostly been a single entry style of player over the years but have now dabbled into multi-entering the $0.25 Fadeaway and the $0.50 Mini-Max among other GPPs. Overall, I’ve been pretty consistent. Not winning anything big by any stretch (and not losing a lot either) but if you decide to take the multi-entry plunge, I highly recommend using any lineup builder and building your own projections into your process.

For those of you who remember my blogs from 2018, you’ll realize that I do this blog as simply a first-look approach with no big statistical reference to back up my plays. The blog will also be used to look back at the previous slate, my player exposures, and where I went right or wrong. It goes without saying that news comes fast and furious throughout the day and can change pretty much everything in a given slate. If you enjoy the blog, feel free to drop a comment or a like. For past blog posts, feel free to look at my profile under my username srcripps.

Yesterday’s Results

There was a lot of different variations of slates to choose from yesterday. I managed to get action in most of them (3 slates on DK and 2 slates on FD). Total fees paid across both sites $132.70 ($72.70 on FD and $60.00 on DK). I won $155.00 total for a profit of $22.30 (16.80% ROI) ($117.00 won on FD and $38.00 won on DK). For the purpose of this blog, I’ll only write about the 11-game main slate on FanDuel where I submitted my 15 lineups in the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll and $2 100-man contests and the 5-game evening slate on DraftKings where I submitted my 20 lineups in the $1 And One. Here’s a look at my top 5 player exposures:

For FD:

Damian Lillard (93%)
Marcus Morris (73%)
Lauri Markkanen (53%)
Goran Dragic (40%)
Jrue Holiday, LaMarcus Aldridge & Andrew Wiggins (33%)
49 players in my player pool for a 11-game slate

For DK:

Damian Lillard (100%)
Hassan Whiteside (95%)
LaMarcus Aldridge (60%)
Jerami Grant (55%)
Gary Trent Jr. (50%)
31 players in my player pool for a 5-game slate

My best lineup on FD in the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll was 34th out of 18,768 entries (ended up winning $35.00, but only cashed 4 out of my 15 lineups)

PG Russell Westbrook 66.2 (13.6% owned)
PG Damian Lillard 84.5 (44.6% owned)
SG Buddy Hield 51.9 (7.3% owned)
SG Dennis Schroder 33.0 (9.2% owned)
SF Alec Burks 62.4 (2.8% owned)
SF Marcus Morris 25.6 (41.2% owned)
PF Bam Adebayo 37.7 (13.2% owned)
PF LaMarcus Aldridge 39.6 (6.6% owned)
C Jaxson Hayes 15.2 (27.7% owned)

Total 416.1 (Winning Lineup was 451.5, cash line was 346.8)

My best lineup on DK in the $1 And One was 1,208th out of 29,726 entries (ended up winning $4.00, but only cashed 7 of my 20 lineups)

PG D’Angelo Russell 50.0 (45.3% owned)
SG Justin Holiday 29.25 (1.4% owned)
SF Gordon Hayward 33.0 (26.3% owned)
PF Jerami Grant 33.75 (23.4% owned)
C LaMarcus Aldridge 35.75 (29.6% owned)
G Damian Lillard 92.0 (58.6% owned)
F Carmelo Anthony 33.25 (17.0% owned)
UTIL Hassan Whiteside 57.75 (57.4% owned)

Total 364.75 (Winning Lineup was 408.75, cash line was 335.5)

A couple of notes to take away from all this: If you didn’t have Damian Lillard, you were pretty much dead in the water. He was highly owned across the board and he just went nuts on the Warriors with 61 real-life points and scored 84.5 FD FPTS and 92 DK FPTS. A Golden State/Portland stack probably worked out pretty well for you. As far as low-owned gems that went off, ramisees won the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll with a 2.8% owned Alec Burks who went off for 62.4 FPTS in the overtime game against Portland. TakeoverTarget and captmonk1 took the top prize in the $1 And One with a 7.9% owned Burks who got 60.75 FPTS. Congratulations to you guys on winning your GPPs. I can certainly say that it was tougher doing lineups for a 5pm EST slate as opposed to a 7pm EST slate, as I’m just rolling in from a day’s work around that time. Not much thought went into my FD lineups as I like to critique what my lineup optimizer is spitting out and make changes. I didn’t have much time to do that last night but am thankful for the final result.

Today’s Slate

We have only 1 game to write up on today. Keep in mind that bankroll management is key to DFS success. Like I’ve mentioned on past blogs, the more lineups you produce tend to have -EV value. There’s only one perfect combination that will win the 1st place prize. Hopefully you or I get it tonight. My approach on a showdown slate like this is to do one lineup and forget about it. Bankroll management at its finest.

The LA Clippers visit Dallas with Dallas favored by 1 with a 229 Vegas total. This is obviously Kawhi vs Luka and I think you need both in your lineups no question about it. They are raw point producers for their respective teams so you have to start with them. On FD where steals and blocks are more important, I would tend to put Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell there. On DK where 3-pointers add more to the scoring, I’d put Tim Hardaway Jr. there. There are a lot of ways to go with a one-game slate. If you’re like me and will only play 1 or 2 lineups, make them count.

Those are my initial takes on the slate. Best of luck tonight Grinders. Let’s win that DFS money!!!!

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