The Gut Check for September 11, 2020
Hope everyone enjoyed the return of the NFL last night, this is the Gut Check. My name is Shawn Cripps and I’m a Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) by day and a DFS player by night. I’ve been playing DFS for the past 5-6 years, mostly on FanDuel, but I’ve started to dabble a bit with DraftKings over the past year. I’ve played mostly NFL, NBA and MLB but have tried other sports like KBO, PGA, NASCAR and MMA (especially during the pandemic). I’m not a high stakes player by any means, just really doing this for the fun of it (at most, probably $50-$200 a night with most of my action in GPPs). I’ve won a few GPPs with my approach over the years and hopefully you can take something away from what I write! I find that this blog is a great way to start your day. Now let’s get started!
I’ve mostly been a single entry style of player over the years but have now dabbled into multi-entering 20 to 25-max contests like the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll and the $1 And-One, and 150-max contests like the $0.25 Fadeaway or $0.50 mini-Max among other GPPs. Overall, I’ve been pretty consistent. Not winning anything big by any stretch (and not losing a lot either) but if you decide to take the multi-entry plunge, I highly recommend using any lineup builder and building your own projections into your process. Staying on top of news is also very important and vital to your success in DFS. I use RotoGrinders and Twitter notifications on my phone to keep me up-to-date throughout the day, a highly recommended part of my process. For NBA, you have to be able to adapt to breaking news in a quick fashion and lineup optimizers certainly help in that regard.
The blog will be used to look back at the previous slate, my player exposures, and where I and/or the public went right or wrong. It goes without saying that news comes fast and furious throughout the day and can change pretty much everything in a given slate. If you enjoy the blog, feel free to drop a comment or a like. For past blog posts, feel free to look at my profile under my username srcripps. If you’re a Twitter user like myself, feel free to look me up at @CpaCripps.
I don’t normally play Single-Game/Showdown slates as it requires a tremendous amount of luck to get the right combination. I suppose you could say that for any slate really, but for the purpose of this blog entry today, I had all of my action in the NFL last night with 15 entries in the $9 NFL Thursday Million with 357,979 other lineups. 5 of my 15 lineups manage to cash, and I even got to share the $250K first TD bonus with David Johnson in the MVP slot. A big ‘ol whooping $19.51 was added to my account this morning along with my $77 in tournament winnings. My account balances stand at a little over $600 for this weekend’s action coming up. I have 30 entries in the $4 Sunday Million that I’ll have to enter, all house money. Now let’s get to tonight’s NBA slate and it’s an exciting slate indeed.
We have two games tonight starting at 6:30pm EST. I’ll go through game-by-game to try to unlock some fantasy goodness. I’ll give you some first thoughts, core and secondary plays as we try to unlock the keys to success.
Denver vs LA Clippers with the Clippers favored by 8 with a 216 Vegas total. The Clippers can close out the Nuggets tonight with a win. Nikola Jokic has played very well over the past three games playing 37, 39 and 39 minutes respectively over that span. Kawhi Leonard has been at the top of his game all series long. Closing out the series would be in his best interest simply for rest purposes. Jamal Murray and Jokic will need a lot of help from Gary Harris, Jerami Grant and “(player-popup #michael-porter-jr)Michael Porter Jr to make this a series, but we could also see Murray and/or Jokic get hot like the last series. Porter Jr. is a lot better off the bench, so hopefully Mike Malone keeps him with the second unit (and keeps him on the court). LA has a deep bench though with Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell leading the way for the second unit. If LA jumps out to a big lead early, I wouldn’t expect Denver to be able to keep up.
Toronto vs Boston with Boston favored by 2.5 with a 204.5 Vegas total. Here we are in Game 7 with the late-night hammer. This has been a back and forth series and an entertaining one throughout. I can see how a game stack works in this instance as Game 6 went to double overtime and anyone with a game stack two nights ago, probably walked away with some DFS cash. Game 7’s have always been unpredictable so I expect nothing less from this one. Norman Powell ended up playing a key role during the overtimes as he’s been pretty much set as a lineup closer in a close game. 8 of the top 10 DFS scores two nights ago came from this game. Hopefully Serge Ibaka ankle can hold up as he’s an important contributor on the glass, and could go underowned.
Those are my initial takes on the games. Be aware of your bankroll, don’t risk more than you’re willing to lose. Feel free to leave a like/comment/question if you like the blog. Best of luck Grinders. Let’s win that DFS money!!!