The Gut Check for September 15, 2020
Hope everyone enjoyed the return of the NFL this past week, this is the Gut Check. My name is Shawn Cripps and I’m a Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) by day and a DFS player by night. I’ve been playing DFS for the past 5-6 years, mostly on FanDuel, but I’ve started to dabble a bit with DraftKings over the past year. I’ve played mostly NFL, NBA and MLB but have tried other sports like KBO, PGA, NASCAR and MMA (especially during the pandemic). I’m not a high stakes player by any means, just really doing this for the fun of it (at most, probably $50-$200 a night with most of my action in GPPs). I’ve won a few GPPs with my approach over the years and hopefully you can take something away from what I write! I find that this blog is a great way to start your day. Now let’s get started!
I’ve mostly been a single entry style of player over the years but have now dabbled into multi-entering 20 to 25-max contests like the $2.22 Pick ‘N Roll and the $1 And-One, and 150-max contests like the $0.25 Fadeaway or $0.50 mini-Max among other GPPs. Overall, I’ve been pretty consistent. Not winning anything big by any stretch (and not losing a lot either) but if you decide to take the multi-entry plunge, I highly recommend using any lineup builder and building your own projections into your process. Staying on top of news is also very important and vital to your success in DFS. I use RotoGrinders and Twitter notifications on my phone to keep me up-to-date throughout the day, a highly recommended part of my process. For NBA, you have to be able to adapt to breaking news in a quick fashion and lineup optimizers certainly help in that regard.
The blog will be used to look back at the previous slate, my player exposures, and where I and/or the public went right or wrong. It goes without saying that news comes fast and furious throughout the day and can change pretty much everything in a given slate. If you enjoy the blog, feel free to drop a comment or a like. For past blog posts, feel free to look at my profile under my username srcripps. If you’re a Twitter user like myself, feel free to look me up at @CpaCripps.
I don’t normally play Single-Game/Showdown slates as it requires a tremendous amount of luck to get the right combination. I suppose you could say that for any slate really, but for the purpose of this blog entry today, I had all of my action in the NFL and MLB last night. 4 of my 20 MLB lineups manage to cash ($37 in winnings, spent $111 in fees, not a good return there). My account balances stand at a little over $425 right now. Now let’s get to tonight’s NBA slate and it’s an exciting slate indeed.
We have two games tonight starting at 6:30pm EST. I’ll go through game-by-game to try to unlock some fantasy goodness. I’ll give you some first thoughts, core and secondary plays as we try to unlock the keys to success.
Miami vs Boston in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals with Boston favored by 2 with a 210 Vegas total. I find it hard to believe that Boston is favored considering they’ve just went through a tough 7-game series against the Raptors. I tend to favor the resting team with Miami only dropping one game so far in the playoffs. Boston does have tough perimeter defense who will make life difficult for Duncan Robinson, Jae Crowder and Tyler Herro to hit the open three-point shot. This could be a game where Jimmy Butler needs to take it over but he’ll have a difficult time with Marcus Smart, who has improved tremendously throughout the playoffs. He’ll need to be that defensive stopper for the Celtics for them to succeed. Kemba Walker has to be better as well and at least match Goran Dragic on the other end. Boston does have the advantage down low with Jayson Tatum and Daniel Theis matching up against Bam Adebayo and Crowder. Tatum is the go-to scoring option for Boston and he should be able to take advantage of any matchup that Miami throws at him. The benches are deep too but I like Miami’s just a bit more because of the scoring punch from Herro and Kelly Olynyk. This should be a defensive minded series to watch, so it’ll be interesting to see where it goes in Game 1.
Denver vs LA Clippers in Game 7 with the Clippers favored by 7.5 with a 207.5 Vegas total. It’s almost unfathomable that we’re here for Game 7 with the Clippers blowing 19-point leads twice. Nikola Jokic has been the glue to keep this team afloat with big minutes for the Nuggets, flirting with a triple-double pretty much every game of the series. Jamal Murray continues to come up with big plays down the stretch, pretty much similar to what he did in the Utah series. We all know that Game 7’s are unpredictable but Denver had come back from a 3-1 deficit against Utah and beat them to get to the Clippers. Everyone is counting Denver out, so I’m sure they’re using that as motivation behind the scenes. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have done all they could to get the Clippers over the hump but their supporting cast haven’t been up to the task to close out the Nuggets. Lou Williams, Marcus Morris, Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell have to be better and I think it’ll be up to the supporting casts of both teams that will decide the outcome. Game 7….there’s nothing like it.
Those are my initial takes on the games. Be aware of your bankroll, don’t risk more than you’re willing to lose. Feel free to leave a like/comment/question if you like the blog. Best of luck Grinders. Let’s win that DFS money!!!