The Hazy Way - Gearing up for the MegaSlam
Today was a typical NBA DFS day that saw me quite content to come away with a small profit of $109. Like many, I had to rush to swap out Brandon Knight and Kevin Durant at the last minute. I had Westbrook at 20% ownership before the news and pushed that up to 40%. If I’d had more time I probably would have bumped that up even higher. Once again my punt plays failed miserably and I’m becoming more and more convinced that I’m going to limit my punts to 10% of my total usage rather than the 20-30% I’ve currently been using. There’s nothing worse than getting 67 from Westbrook, 38 from Joe Johnson, 35 from MKG, 53 from Davis, 43 from Jordan and seeing the lineup falter after that because of some really bad value plays. I’d have been better off just picking consistent 4,500-5,000 priced players.
Anyway, I digress. Lessons learned, apply them as I move forward. Which is something I am doing in preparation for the MegaSlam tomorrow. I won another four tickets tonight to bring my total to 39. That means I’ll have to buy in for an additional 11 ($275) to get to my goal of 50 entries. I’m already researching the games even though there’s a five game slate tonight (which I’ll of course be playing). I’m looking at the games in-depth, analyzing the best match ups, and the worst ones. I won’t do projections until day of but I want to have a good idea of who I am going to be going after and who I am going to be fading. Among the things I’m evaluating:
1) Player freshness (how many games have they played recently)
2) DvP – how well does the opposing team defend the player
3) Usage – how often is the player involved in the offense
4) Home/Road splits – how well does a player do in the given situation (being at home or away) he will be facing that night
5) Injury status – is the player hurt? If so, will it impact his performance. How does his injury impact the rest of the team? How does it impact the opposing team?
6) Positional comparison – what options are available at that position for that day?
7) Ceiling and consistency data analysis – what players have a low ceiling? It’s great to have a player that you know will score 20 fantasy points but if they never top 4x value then you probably want to avoid them. Identifying those players (guys like D. Carroll for example) and limiting exposure to them is key.
8) Trending Stats – great tool from RotoGrinders that allows you to see what has changed over the past week/3 weeks. Who is getting more minutes? Less? Who is scoring more fantasy points? Less? Avoid those getting less and target those with more. Easy right?
Things I’ll add in on game day:
1) Vegas lines – what do the bookmakers think of the game? Is it going to be high scoring? Close? Have to evaluate blow out potential and try and not have too much of any player who might be in that type of situation. I want to target high-value players playing in close, high-scoring games.
2) Expert rankings – who do they think is going to have a good day?
3) Site projections – what do the three sites I use for projection analysis project for that day?
A lot of work but if I want to do well then I need to take it seriously.