The NFL week 1 Primetime Small Slate Plate
I use to do this blog a few years ago but stopped for some reason but I think I am going to get back into it since not too many people write just about the small slates. Welcome to the NFL week 1 in a pandemic. As most expected a lot of things did not go as planned yesterday but that doesn’t mean we can’t try and figure out this small slate tonight! Also remember I play fanduel so I will be basing my opinions on their pricing.
Steelers @ Giants
We have two games tonight that don’t have a big implied total but if yesterday taught us anything don’t pay attention to that. These games can end up 45-42 or 10-7 and I wouldn’t be surprised by either. This game does have the bigger implied total with the O/U at 45 and the Steelers as 5.5 point favorites. This game will be a challenge for the Giants offense and a good first game back for Big Ben as the Giants had virtually no answer for the pass last season.
Titans @ Broncos
The broncos are coming into this game really banged up on the defensive side of the ball which could be why they are currently 3 point underdogs (Personally I think it should be even larger) on a game that only has an O/U of 41. I will probably be favoring the first game here although the second game may provide us the plays that will take down a gpp.
There is a lot of uncertainty to big ben going into this season he is getting older and he doesn’t have the weapons he use to. That being said he missed all of last year and he is coming into this season in the best shape he has been in for a while now. Last season the Giants pass defense was atrocious and if it is anything like that this year Ben is set up for a good game 1 to get back in the swing of things. He is my top pick at the position tonight.
He came in and sparked a fire in the Titans last year that I don’t think a single non Titans fan saw coming. He wasn’t going to be one of my favorites for this slate but with the injuries that Denver is dealing with in the pass rush and the secondary he is my solid second option on this slate. With people looking at Ben and Lock you can get him low owned most likely and pairing him with Brown could make for a good gpp play.
There really isn’t much to say here Henry is the man in this offense they road the Derrick Henry train all the way to the conference championship game last year and I don’t expect much to change this year. As I stated earlier the broncos are banged up and I expected Henry to have a good game before any of that even happened. I am playing two lines tonight and he will be in both.
Most people probably expected Barkley to be listed here and he is a good play but I don’t think picking him is going to win anyone a GPP. I personally think outside of picking the right dart throw receiver tonight it will come down to picking between Gordon and Lindsey. Early reports were expecting Gordon to lead this backfield but that has changed now we are hearing it will be a split backfield and while either can go off I am leaning toward Gordon getting more touches. If you want to really be different from the field play both Gordon and Lindsey and hope they both find the endzone.
*James Conner is most likely finding my flex spot tonight. If you can fit Henry, Conner, and Barkley then go for it especially if its for cash games.
While JuJu may seem like all he does is play Fortnite he has actually stepped up his game this off-season and not just video games. He has his true QB back in Ben which he did not have last year after week 2 so I wouldn’t pay too much attention to JuJu’s stats last year. As mentioned before this Giants teams secondary was awful last year so I expect JuJu to eat. I don’t hate a stack of him ben and conner its not the killer B’s stack we use to see but against this defense they may just look like it.
Have I mentioned the Broncos defense yet? If this game was in a full slate I wouldn’t be big on Aj but it’s on a two game slate so lets roll with it. The Broncos secondary doesn’t look too promising and with no Von Miller Tannehill should have more time to find his targets and his number one is Brown. He will also have the best Wr/Cb match up of the sIate. If this game gets out of hand early that could mean Aj Brown not getting too many targets so I am hoping for some early production from him.
*This position is the make or break for the slate we have to find the right punt play. It is looking like Golden Tate is going to play as of right now but keep an eye on it if he plays he has just as much of a shot at going off as any of the giants receivers. We won’t be so lucky with Courtland Sutton news as he plays the late game. Whether Sutton plays or not Jerry Jeudy could be in for some targets tonight especially since I see them playing from behind. Diontae Johnson may be the key here and honestly I could see a Ben, Juju, Johnson, Conner line winning it all.
Golden Tate is out for tonight this means take your pick between Slayton and Shepard I think having one will help you cash and possibly take something down in my opinion Shepard makes for a safer play but Slayton can be the boom or bust you need for a takedown
Yes Evan Engram is out there and is a viable play but Noah Fant is one of two receiver options that Drew Lock is familiar with on his team. If Sutton ends up not playing I like this pick even more. This will allow you to free up space to fit in guys like Henry and Barkley.
*Evan Engram is my second favorite play strictly off volume alone and if you can pick the right play between Mcdonald and Ebron the Giants let up points to the tight end often last year.
I have a feeling we will be playing the Steelers D quite a bit this year. They were really good last year and get to the quarterback a lot which is why I love them in this match up against a young quarterback who likes to turn the ball over. The fact that they will have a better offense this year will also help the defense stay rested and ready to go. This seems like this game will get to the point where the defense can pin their ears back and go get the quarterback so I expect quite a bit of sacks.
Thank you all for reading let me know your thoughts on tonight. Remember it is still week 1 and things will be a little crazy we will get through this strange season together. Let’s go make some money and stay hungry!