The Open

Looks like I’ll have a little bit of steam coming into the Open this year. It wasn’t much but I finished 3rd in the $0.10 2K Dime Time contest for $50, so that is a nice refresher for me. Placed in some other contests but only snagged one $10 mili ticket. Oh well, still a very positive week for me. And to think I usually hate birdiefests! Congrats to Lucas Glover after a 10 year hiatus from winning. I’ve had this one circled on my calendar for a while. I’m not sure how many lineups I’ll make but likely over 20 in the small stakes contests throughout.

Key Stats
I do like to mostly follow Noto here but still with some tweaking. There are a couple new things I’m trying a little to incorporate as well.

1. SG(T2G) – I always like to get a “full picture” of a guy’s game and to me this is the best stat to do it. I prefer tee to green over off the tee because I think I think “off the tee” is a little too broad, since I care about more than the teeshot.

2. SG(A) – I guess this gets a little redundant but I still want guys that can give themselves a makeable putt. The best way to do that is hitting the green!

3. Bogey Avoidance – I think this one is pretty self explanatory. I think it becomes crucial since this isn’t a “birdiefest”, so pars can keep you alive here.

4. Scrambling – With how I hear this course “bounces around” I think we are going to see balls hit the green and rollout, bounce off, or have some freak thing happen. You’re going to have to be able to get it up and down.

5. Par 3 scoring – Since we have 4 par 3s here I just think this will be important. I think we’re going to need some of these par 3 birdies in order “stay alive”.

6. Bounceback – This is the first time I am incorporating this. I wanted a stat that I thought could determine who is “mentally tough” and figured this was my best one. I am a little scared to use it as Bryson ranks high on this and he is a headcase IMO. I guess he can birdie after a bogey then follow up with another bogey and “seesaw”.

7. Par 4 scoring – I think this is where I got a little “lazy” this week. With this being a par 70 we will see less par 5s and more 4s so that’s why I included it.

The Plays
10K+: I’ll start by saying I’m likely playing most of these guys in my 20 lineups or so. With that being said I value a few higher than the others.

1. Brooks – It’s a Major isn’t it? I revert to playing him during one. He is 3rd in SG(T2G), 10th in SG(A), 6th in Bounceback, and 17th in par 4 scoring. Not to mention he has performed well on links course and in previous Opens
2. XMan – He ranks 12th in SG(T2G), 17th in SG(A), 18th in par 3 scoring, and 8th in Bounceback. I tend to play him in Majors and difficult courses as well.

8K-9.9K: There’s a solid group of guys in this area.

1. Morikawa – Morikawa is actually one of my top rated players this week! He ranks 1st in SG(T2G), 1st in SG(A), 28th in bogey avoidance, 26th in par 3 scoring, 28th in Bounceback, and 7th in par 4 scoring
2. Cantlay – He has been a favorite of these blogs. I would say it’s “worked” more than it’s failed (depending on your qualifications). He is 4th in SG(T2G), 25th in SG(A), 3rd in bogey avoidance, 2nd in scrambling, and 2nd in par 4 scoring.

Obviously this is a big range so I have several other guys I want to play. The list (in order) goes JT, Spieth, Reed, Finau, and Hatton. I’m playing others but will likely key on these after Morikawa and Cantlay.

Webb checks so many boxes but his US Open performance has me weary.

Fade: Will Z – After his performance the past few weeks and him being so young, he seems very overpriced.

7K-7.9K: I have a feeling that this will be where a GPP is won.

1. Russell Henley – I’m not a fan of playing this guy but he has been playing well (albeit at “easier” courses) and checks the boxes. He’s 3rd in SG(T2G), 21st in SG(A), 25th in bogey avoidance, 9th in scrambling, 18th in par 3 scoring, and 2nd in par 4 scoring.
2. Ancer – I’m a little hesitant as he’s fallen back a little and disappointed in the US Open. With that being said he’s 30th in SG(A), 11th in bogey avoidance, 17th in scrambling, 26th in par 3 scoring, 18th in Bounceback, and 2nd in par 4 scoring.
3. English – He could use some work on the tee to green game but the rest seems to be there. He’s 25th in bogey avoidance, 9th in scrambling, 26th in par 3 scoring, 6th in Bounceback, and 26th in par 4 scoring.
4. Niemann – He is 25th in SG(T2G), 24th in bogey avoidance, 5th in par 3 scoring, 14th in Bounceback, and 26th in par 4 scoring.

Honorable Mention: CHALK Berger, Conner, and Harman

6Ks: This is a small list but I might include more where salary is needed.

1. Cink – He seems underpriced here. He’s 21st in SG(A), 1st in par 3 scoring, and 30th in Bounceback. He’s had a good Open track record so I consider him my top “value” play
2. Burns – He could fail but checks some boxes. He’s 20th in SG(A), 27th in Bounceback, and 10th in par 4 scoring.
3. Bradley – 6th in SG(T2G) & 4th in SG(A).

I probably didn’t dive into the depths as much as I should have but when I build I might.

Non-Stat Plays
Here are some other guys I think could do well that aren’t necessarily stat based. A lot is based on Open History and them being Europeans.

Rose (8K) – He’s been bad but tend to show up at Majors and has done well at the Open

Westwood (7.5K) – He’s been a joy to follow this year after basically saying I’m just here to play golf instead of focusing on the nuances of the day-to-day life. He’s had success at the Open and I hope that to continue.

Stenson (7K) – I think he’s just expensive enough to go overlooked with how he’s played this season but “casuals” might know him at the same time. We’ll see where he stacks up against the other guys in his range.

Of course I will be playing more guys than listed but I think I’ll try my best to focus on these ones. I’m thinking about 40 lineups and I play a fairly large pool. Hope this helps get the ball rolling. Good luck this week and win that Mili!!!

About the Author

Comments

  • ifthethunder

    Nice blog!

    I finished 176th in that Dime Time with my best l.u. (good for a whopping 75 cents!, gotta love these lotto gpps). Nice lineup!

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/110226099?uc=2749630487#/

    I am big on Cink and Westwood because experience at this event (and course) are important. Also why I like Spieth, Brooks, and Justin Thomas up top. Also really interested in gophers who played the Scottish Open last week and did well. It’s a links course too, of course. And recency bias in terms of results is something found in many winners at The Open.

    Good Luck!
    ~

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    Thank you! Getting prepared for this one still but still haven’t made a lineup. Better get on that part but for now it’s hammering some ASG lineups.

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