The Tasty Chalk NFL Week 3
As of late all we hear about I feel like is fading chalk. “Oh no that guy is chalk I won’t be playing him.” “You can’t play him he’s chalk.” We all see it in Facebook groups, DFS threads, and even on RotoGrinders. Well there is always a difference between bad and good chalk and that is why I am starting this blog. I am going to list my top chalk plays of the week and my fade chalk pick of the week. Lets get to it!
So what determines good chalk vs bad chalk? in my opinion it will be the volume and opportunity. If you have a running back at 40%+ but is going to get you 25 touches with a high ceiling are you going to be ok eating that chalk? Of course you are so don’t get cute. This week we have a lot of injuries so naturally that means a lot of value and a lot of chalk. Lets get to our chalk picks that you may want to think again before fading them.
He came back with 20 rush attempts and 7 targets last week and was able to put up some good numbers. Some people were worried about the volume he might have going into last week but I think last week showed he is the main guy still in the backfield and he has a great matchup this week. Besides my boys in Carolina the Bengals have given up the most fantasy points to running backs this season and the most rushing yards through two games. Sanders should be able to take complete advantage of that this Sunday and I believe this is one of those picks that despite being high owned will be in the top line.
Deandre is leading the league with 25 targets in 2 games and has ran a route on 100% of his snaps. The game total has grown to 54.5 so this game is expected to be high scoring and with Hopkins matchup this week against the Lions secondary he should be able to put up his normal numbers if not better. There has been some news coming out that Kirk may not be able to go this week so that will only help his target share. He is a cash game piece for sure and I can see him being in a top gpp lineup.
Kyler has came out with a vengeance this season huh? This Arizona offense seems like a whole new team after the addition of Hopkins who would of thought a top receiver could be so important someone should of told Bill O’Brien. Sure the Lions haven’t gave up a lot to quarterbacks from a stat perspective so far but last week the Packers didn’t have to pass but when they did it was pretty effective. The only fear I have here is that the same happens again but I think this game has a higher shootout potential than the Packers one did. This Lions defense looks like it won’t be able to stop anything this year healthy or not so until they prove they can I am going to keep picking on them. Now while a Kyler and Hopkins stack can very well be in the winning line you will need to get different elsewhere and I think either coming back with a lions player or a dart throw Arizona player that no one is talking about is the way to do it.
Chalk Fade Of The Week
When I am listing a fade I mean if you are making 1-3 lines this person can be faded and you can pivot to someone else if you are running a bunch of lines then obviously play him I just won’t have much ownership. Tyler Lockett is in a good spot don’t get me wrong but I prefer D.K Metcalf or other receivers in high owned game stacks. There is so much value on this slate and with a lot of high price guys playing in the primetime games (which I will cover in my Small Slate Plate blog being posted later or tomorrow) I think there is plenty of pivots in the receiver position.
Thank you all for reading and let me know what you think of the post and if I should continue this and also please let me know some of your favorite and least favorite chalk plays of the week.