The US Open & NHL Tonight
Since I’ve been enjoying blogging with NHL winding down, I figured I’d give a little rundown of the US Open and get back to my golf blogging roots. I know it’s a Major but I am not as excited as I would typically be. I’ll be honest a lot of that has do with it being at Torrey Pines. I get that it’s a great course, I just feel I have seen it too many times. Or have I? I ask that question because the USGA is borderline maniacal with how they choose to setup courses. At least we have the top players with some noticeable faces missing in Jason Day & Rickie Fowler. Golf is one where you can really fall off the map quick.
I apologize if I am just mirroring Noto here but the man knows his golf. I have “tweaked” what he is using and have rearranged the order of some things. Obviously you are going to want to dig a little deeper than just these stats but I think it’s a good jumping off point.
1. SG(A) – I’m sticking with Noto here and will keep this as my number one stat. You have to give yourself chances and the best way to do so is hitting some greens and giving your self a chance at some makeable putts.
2. SG(T2G) – This is a little variation of Noto’s SG (OTT). I prefer tee to green over off the tee because I think it paints a “better” picture of overall golfing than just shots off the tee and that’s what I’m looking for.
3. Bogey Avoidance – I doubt we’ll see any BOFR but if we do I’d imagine said golfer is still closer to par than -10 or whatever. All this goes to say is the guys who can grind out pars here will have a leg up on the competition. We often see some surprising names on this list.
4. SG(ATG) – It’s being said that the rough here is going to be very difficult, especially the closer you get to the hole. So since I’m anticipating a lot of missed greens or not getting there in 2, I want some guys who can get it close with a wedge or recover (more the next stat) well.
5. Scrambling – I am piggybacking from my previous stat but want to make sure I have everything covered. The “up and down” game is going to be clutch here and I think this is the best stat to use for that. I could be simplifying things but that’s what I know best.
6. Par 5 Scoring – A lot of this category is bombers but I still think it’s important. I know there are only 3 par 5s but I imagine a lot of the scoring will happen on these holes. The “easy” par 5 has now been converted to a long par 4 that could prove difficult.
This is its own category but I always want guys that have performed well at the US Open. Sometimes these guys “pop” in the stats and other times they are just cool customers.
10K+: I’ll start by saying I’m likely playing most of these guys in my 40 lineups or so. With that being said I value a few higher than the others.
1. Jon Rahm – I know he’s the chalk here but he checks my boxes above. He is 12th is SG(A), 2nd in SG(T2G), 9th in bogey avoidance, and 2nd in par 5 scoring. He also plays well at this course (not sure if that’s a good indicator or not for this week).
2. Jordan Spieth – I might play a little less Jordan but still like him and want him to do well. He’s 25th is SG(A), 22nd in SG(T2G), 9th in SG(ATG), and 22nd in par 5 scoring. The only thing holding me back is how he’s done in previous US Opens. He’s missed some cuts and had poor finishes.
8.5K-9.9K: It appears this is the range I will be in the most. It makes the most sense and allows you to get more “balanced”. I’m likely going to be different from a lot of you guys here.
1. gulp… Patrick Cantlay – It appears as if Patrick Cantlay is the only of of my “plays that is in the T30 of all my 6 categories above!!! It does seem strange because all I remember is him being meh a majority of the year. It might just be he hasn’t been able to all put it together. He is 24th in SG(A), 4th in SG(T2G), 4th in bogey avoidance, 14th in SG(ATG), 2nd in scrambling, and 28th in par 5 scoring.
2. Webb Simpson – Usually Webb brings the ownership but I am not sure that is still the case. I don’t remember him contending recently making me think people might “forget” about him. On the season Webb is 27th in SG(T2G), 1st in bogey avoidance, 11th in SG(ATG), 1st in scrambling, and 5th in par 5 scoring.
3. This could be one of 3 different people (Morikawa, Finau, or Will Z). For this exercise I’ll roll Colin Morikawa. He is 1st in SG(A), 1st in SG(T2G), 25th in bogey avoidance, and 18th in par 5 scoring. Appears his downfall is around the greens so that could be a red flag.
7K-8.4K: There are still plenty of golfers to choose from here. A lot of them would be 9-10K+ on a regular week. I feel it’s important to hit on this group because there should be some “chalk” in there.
1. Charley Hoffman – Speaking of chalk I leadoff with what will likely be a chalky pick at 7.2K. If you had told me a year or longer ago I would be picking Charley Hoffman in a Major I would call you crazy. This dude has had quite the resurgence this year. He is 6th in SG(A), 17th in SG(T2G), 20th in bogey avoidance, and 24th in scrambling. He has also played well at US Opens. The long lost Puddin Cheeks would not approve of this pick!
2. Louis Oosthuizen – Another likely chalky pick that just makes sense. He’s 17th in bogey avoidance, 18th in SG(ATG), and 13th in scrambling. I guess those aren’t the “best” stats of the bunch I just “trust” him more than most here with his solid US Open record.
3. Abraham Ancer – Maybe I oughtta just call this range the “Chalk Zone” (insert GIF here lol). We all know Ancer and likely play him a lot, so why stop now? He is 28th in SG(T2G), 2nd in bogey avoidance, and 7th in scrambling
4. Brian Harman – Finally a name that might come in under 10%. Brian Harman has had a pretty good season this year. He is 10th in bogey avoidance, 6th in scrambling, and 10th in par 5 scoring. The one that gets lost here is his putting. If anything keeps him alive it’ll be the flatstick.
Honorable Mention – Cameron Smith, Paul Casey, Sam Burns, Niemann, and Harris English
6Ks: This is a small list but I might include more where salary is needed.
1. Zach Johnson – This one is strictly because ZJ loves “par” golf and always seems to make the US Open cut. A savy vet that should get you past the cut line.
2. RCB – He has been pretty bad overall this year but has been rounding into form a bit. I feel comfortable (not confident) in taking a chance on him. He has a pretty good US Open track record so far.
3. Brendan Steele – The guy likes to play US Opens. That’s all I have for him lol Helps that some of the touts here like him too.
I probably didn’t dive into the depths as much as I should have but when I build I might. I will say I do not think I will be playing Higgo either. Are there any glaring misses I have here?
Well last night it was the Lightning and Islanders. When I went to play my hockey game it was 1-1. Even that was a bit of a surprise as I thought TB would build a lead or it’d be 0-0. The story again became to be about the refs again. Some bad calls lead to goals but at least it was “even”. Being a ref is tough but they gotta do better! In the end it landed at 4-2 in favor of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Do we think the Canadiens can keep up with Vegas? They did for about 5 minutes maybe a bit longer last game. I just don’t think they have the all around game to compete with Vegas. I haven’t heard yet but I don’t think Petry will play and if he does I imagine it will be ineffective. So I have VGK 5-3.
With everybody trying to throw in some combo of VGK L1 or L2 at CPT I might use one of their 3 top D as a CPT. I think a Pietro CPT makes the most sense. If salary is a concern then go Theodore. Otherwise idk what to tell you. I just don’t see MTL as worth it.
Good luck tonight and for the Open!!!