To Fade or Not to Fade: Low Team Totals But Still Cashing...What Gives?
I’ve been playing DFS for 3 years now. I’m a low level, low volume player who is looking for more consistency. My goal is to use this space to reflect on what I did right and where I can improve. Join me on my journey and learn along with me. Here is my story.:
Before I start, I want to direct you to fellow slack chat member Coach232’s blog Skinning the Cat. He has great insight into the game of basketball and has been extremely helpful keeping me in the right frame of mind with DFS and helping me out with my process.
I’m a little behind in breaking down slates, so I’m going to review the last 2 slates and how things turned out.
Despite choosing Lonzo Ball over Chris Paul, I managed to cash in both 50/50s and the 10 man league I was in. Playing Ball over Paul was a mistake on my part. Out of the 2, given the situation and environment, which had the better opportunity for a ceiling game? I let my bias and past results from Paul sway me off of him. That’s on me. Part of likes that I’m aware of my biases. The next step is to have these epiphanies before setting my lineup.
I was not on Marcus Smart at all. Completely missed that one. While his production was helped due to Kyrie’s injury, he was having a solid game prior to Irving going down. Again, never looked his way once. The same can be said for Julius Randle.
It wasn’t all bad. I was on Eric Gordon and listened to my DFS chat and took a second look at Jayson Tatum. The Saric call worked in my favor and while Embiid didn’t go for 50+ against the Nets, I’ll take his production. If you were a person who had Lopez or Turner, hats off to you. I only had eyes for Embiid and didn’t really consider other options.
Despite only putting up 266.7, I was able to see a $3.30 profit. Here is where my game selection has helped not only with profit, but my mental state. Earlier this year, I would simply throw my lineups into 100 man contests or large GPPs. With a score like mine, I wouldn’t come near the cash lines. In 50/50s and 10 mans, I’ve noticed the cash line is lower and that has benefited me on my small run of sub 300 totals.
Monday’s slate also brought a low team total but $.60 profit (I’ve had my eye on that Doublemint gum for awhile). With the Heat value, it made it easier to insert Westbrook and Harden together. Everyone was on Pau Gasol last night with Aldridge out, but I liked his brother Marc’s matchup with the Bucks. I was able to put him in along with Eric Bledsoe. I felt good by my lineup and certainly was helped a great deal by Winslow’s big game.
As far as the top point producers last night, I wasn’t on Nurkic or Lillard. As I’ve focused more on my process, I’ve stopped using the hindsight lense to reflect on my lineups. In the past, I would work out how I could have gotten to those players. I don’t do that now. I can admit when I’m not on a player. I didn’t look the Blazers way because I was set on going Harden/Westbrook/Gasol.
If you are interested to see how players did the night before, I have found these 2 sites very helpful in comparing how players did.
When you are backlogged with grading and don’t get home from tutoring until 6:30, you don’t have a great deal of time for a process. I watched Notorious’ Grind Down video and reviewed what was being discussed in the slack chat. I feel a little in the dark and probably should have not played the main slate or skipped the entire night. However, I ended up on a Lineup with Ball/DeRozan/LeBron/Jokic. I went with Mudiay/”(player-popup #jeff-green)Jeff Green”:/players/jeff-green-1314/Shaq Harrison as my salary savers. We will see how things turn out.
Let me know how your process is going. Leave me a comment below or hit me up on Twitter: JMcGrath330.