To Fade or Not to Fade: Make the Easy Decision
I’ve been playing DFS for 3 years now. I’m a low level, low volume player who is looking for more consistency. My goal is to use this space to reflect on what I did right and where I can improve. Here is my story:
Sometimes the easiest decision is the hardest decision to make in DFS. In my 3 years playing DFS, I’ve fallen into the same trap over and over. I go over my research, I see that player A is a stud player in a prime matchup…and I fade that person. Why? I think that I’m going to gain an edge in GPPs in the hopes that player A does not perform as expected. Occasionally, this strategy works depending on the sport. I’ve noticed more often than not, when a stud player has a prime matchup in the NBA, that player will reach value.
Does it happen 100% of the time? Of course not. We are making choices on a game that involves human beings. There will always be a variable we cannot account for. Still, when the easy decision presents itself, sometimes we need to find other places to be contrarian.
Win Streak Ends at 2
Last night was a crazy night of news prior to lock. The lineup I created early on in the day was trashed to try and to take into account all the news that was coming out. With guys like DeMar DeRozan, Hassan Whiteside, and Al Horford out it created opportunities for guys to step in but also usage bumps for the other starters. This is something you learn during the RotoAcademy courses. That was a lesson that I failed to take into account last night. While I took Norman Powell replacing DeRozan, I passed on Dragic who sees a nice usage bump with Whiteside off of the court. Dragic ended going for 49.5 FanDuel points.
As I mentioned in the beginning, sometimes the easiest decision is the hardest decision. That easy decision (other than Dragic) that I didn’t make last night was rostering James Harden. Harden, who is having a MVP season, was playing the 76ers. This seems like a no brainer…except for me. I was so fixated on having John Wall in my lineup to try and pivot off the other big stars. Wall’s game wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t as good as I needed paying $10,200 for him. If you played last night then you know Harden went off for 87.1 FanDuel points. If you had both of Harden and Dragic, you probably cashed.
All of my selections weren’t terrible. Granted, I did roster Serge Ibaka and that didn’t work out well, I had others who performed well. Despite a poor shooting game, James Johnson had 31.3 FanDuel points. Teague and Paul George went for 39.6 and 42.3 respectively. Marc Gasol had a good matchup against Portland and responded with 55.1 points. I just needed to make the easy decisions.
Lessons learned thus far
- If you don’t have time for your Process, don’t play the slate.
- Work on roster construction. (Play the guys who get opportunity)
- Try to spread my exposure over the entire slate.
- Make the easy decision.
I’m noticing more and more that there are many DFS players who are also wrestling fans. I clearly love it as my image here on RotoGrinders and FanDuel is Hulk Hogan. Here are my predictions for TakeOver tonight:
Roderick Strong over Almas
Dillinger over Young
DIY over the Authors of Pain
Nakamura over Roode (although we all win with getting to see their entrances)
Enjoy your Saturday!