To Fade or Not to Fade: No Feel for the Slate
I’ve been playing DFS for 3 years now. I’m a low level, low volume player who is looking for more consistency. My goal is to use this space to reflect on what I did right and where I can improve. Join me on my journey and learn along with me. Here is my story.:
Thursdays are one of the few days I can make my projections, work on a spreadsheet and really delve into the process. Only problem was the heart and mind weren’t in it. I created a spreadsheet and stared blankly at it. There were few plays that were really popping out to me. Reading over the Core Plays, Expert Survey, and Grind Down didn’t really help matters. All of this should have been an indication that I skip the slate. Instead, I powered through and created a lineup.
Void of the Big 3
LeBron James, James Harden, and Anthony Davis were all on the slate and I chose not to roster any of them. I didn’t even try to roster LeBron or AD. I know that LeBron is matchup proof but playing Portland didn’t excite me. AD was going against the Spurs and I chose to stay away. He is playing out of his mind right now but I just wasn’t taking the risk with the highest salary on the slate.
I did try to fit James Harden in but didn’t find anything that I wanted to keep. He had the best matchup of the 3 studs but came with potential blowout risk. I chose to stay away from that and found myself with a lineup without the 3 top guys.
H2. Where I Landed
H3. Point Guards
Looking at matchups and numbers, the point guards that popped out to me were: Kemba Walker, Damian Lillard, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Ricky Rubio. Rubia’s matchup with Phoenix was enticing as was Kemba’s matchup with the Hawks. I settled on Mudiay at $4600 and Damian Lillard who has been playing out of his mind recently.
“(player-popup #c-j-mccollum)C.J. McCollum”:/players/c-j-mccollum-17121’s L5 fantasy points per game numbers stood out to me. The numbers were probably inflated from the 51 FD point game against OKC, but I still chose to roster him. The other player that I chose was Donovan Mitchell. Again, the matchup against the Suns shows up. Unlike Rubio, Mitchell seemed to work well with my build. I had looked at DeRozan briefly but chose to go with Mitchell instead.
Perhaps there was some recency bias here, but I chose to go with Robert Covington and Wilson Chandler at the small forward position. By rostering both, I took on a great deal of volatility. Both are capable of 40+ outings or 10 point outings. However, Covington has been playing well lately going against a lifeless Knicks team and Chandler playing Detroit who struggle against small forwards. I settled on the two of them quickly once I decided I wasn’t going up to LeBron James.
Everything I read mentioned Noah Vonleh. He was not a sexy pick by any means but he provided salary relief and was pretty predictable in what he would give you. I chose to eat the chalk on him and went with Dario Saric because he performed well when I chose him the other night.
I was looking at Myles Turner or Dwight Howard. I know how volatile Dwight can be and tried talking myself out of him. His matchup against Atlanta was too good to pass up along with the other narratives that existed. For a player like Dwight, I believe the narratives. He seems to be a guy who would play harder against a team he was on.
I don’t know if it’s the grind of teaching (March always seems to grind to a halt) or the grind of playing everyday, but I do find myself starting to slip on the process. I’m feeling a day or two break coming shortly just to recharge and refresh.
Let me know how your process is going. Leave me a comment below or hit me up on Twitter: JMcGrath330.