To Fade or Not to Fade: Rediscovering My Process
I’ve been playing DFS since 2014. I’m a low level, low volume player who is looking for more consistency. Join me as I reflect (and probably mock) my process and occasionally make a wrestling reference. So I have 1 question for you… Who wants to learn with Joe? (See what I did there?).:
The last 2 weeks have been a non-stop roller coaster. Last week was the last week of school before Christmas break. Any teacher (or parent) will attest that kids hit a special level of energy just before Christmas. There was Christmas itself with family gatherings, purchasing gifts and travel. On top of that, my fiance and I had multiple meetings with our DJ, photographer, wedding venue, and videographer to finalize details for our wedding. Wth the big day on Saturday, we are constantly finding little details we need to get to done. Needless to say, time has been hard to come by.
As far as DFS goes, it has also been an interesting 2 weeks. Last week, anything that could have gone wrong with my lineups did. A few things that happened with my lineups last week that I couldn’t possibly plan for:
- LeBron being un-LeBron like on the Sunday slate.
- The following night brought the Sacramento Kings sitting Fox and Bjelica for most of the game.
- The next night, John Wall decided not to show up and play in a cupcake matchup. (And I typically NEVER play John Wall!)
- Finally, Chris Paul pulls his hammy and sinks my lineup in the process.
Doubt started to creep into my head. Am I really a good DFS player? Can I build a bankroll? Should I just stick to football?
This doubt also got me thinking about what made me successful last year. When I was doing well in the 2nd half of last season, I had a process that worked for me. This year, I haven’t been able to rediscover that process. I’ve been trying to use Notorious’s model, create his model, or just using the Premium articles. As I have mentioned in other blogs, somedays this is enough to get by, but it is not given me consistency. On the Christmas Day slate, I found enough time to go back to what worked for me..
Rediscovering the Process
My problem this year has been trying to make my process more complicated than it needs to be. When I was successful last year, I was using the FanDuel salaries along with Notorious’s algorithm to find how many points I would need from a player to meet a team goal. Usually I would shoot for 330 points because most nights that would be good enough to cash. Then, I would create a list of players by position of players I thought could hit that number. I would cross-reference that player across the Grind Down and the premium articles to come to a smaller list of players to construct a roster.
For the Christmas Day slate, I went back to this process. It was the first time in awhile that I felt strong about my lineup. I had an understanding of what I needed from each player and why to pick each player.
In 1 day, I was able to cut my losses in half. I’m still down $25 on the basketball season but have my process back. We’ll see if I can turn my season around.
Quick Morning Update: Won again last night. Nothing huge but it’s the first time in a while that I’ve put up back to back 300 nights.
Leave a comment below or hit me up on Twitter: JMcGrath330.