To Fade or Not to Fade: The St. Patty's Day Slate
I’ve been playing DFS for 3 years now. I’m a low level, low volume player who is looking for more consistency. My goal is to use this space to reflect on what I did right and where I can improve. Join me on my journey and learn along with me. Here is my story.:
Yesterday brought a big 9 game slate with loads of options and value. Here’s how I approached yesterday’s slate.
With the initial build yesterday, I saw LeBron and Draymond Green as must plays for me. The injury situations surrounding both made them necessary plays for their teams to be competitive. Building around them was going to be key. I chose to go my with my achilles heel, Elfrid Payton at $5,600 and Quinn Cook. Elf’s upside of 50+ against a backup point guard was too enticing to pass up. By going with Elf, I was making a decision to pass on Yogi Ferrell who was in a good spot at a low price.
At shooting guard, Will Barton had a tough matchup if this were the healthy Memphis Grizzlies from years past. Instead, he’s facing a much different Grizzlies team and Gary Harris was out. Nicolas Batum was another person who seemed pricey, but he’s been on fire recently. With this original lineup, I was taking a chance by not having James Harden in my lineup. I had this in the back of my mind because it was hard to ignore his matchup and pace against the Pelicans.
Noel was ruled out so I had to reconfigure my lineup. I still did not have James Harden in my lineup, but I was working on ways to put him in. For this lineup, I was looking to get Noel out just in case I couldn’t make any more changes. (I was having dinner at my parents for St. Patty’s Day. There was a chance I wasn’t getting to lineups.) I moved off Batum and put in Nick Young. Jackson was moved for Iguodala and Powell for Jeff Green. I chose to pay up at center with Rudy Gobert. The other options presented did not entice me.
Looking at lineup 2, I liked Gobert, but asked myself who had more upside: Gobert or Harden? I started to work on ways to put Harden in my lineup along with LeBron and Draymond. To make it work, Nick Young stayed and Will Barton was gone. I came down from Rudy Gobert to Al Jefferson once I knew Turner was out. I can thank the slack chat for talking me into Jefferson. I went back to Dwight Powell from Jeff Green. I was going to stick to this lineup, but wanted to find a way to include Will Barton because Gary Harris was out.
Results and Reflection
I scored 353.5 with the Looney lineup and cashed in both the 10 man leagues and the Dribbler netting a $4.90 profit.
As for the process, I want to tell you that I should have moved off Elf to Yogi Ferrell. However, Elf provided upside at that price in a great matchup and he starts. I don’t see that as a bad move. I wish I would have found a way to stay on Josh Jackson. Joe Harris was a salary move and I knew that I was getting a 20 point game at best. In order to fit Jackson, I would have had to move off Barton down to Young and maybe another move as well. Kevin Looney was a way to fit Barton in. His 32. 4 FD outing was the best possible outcome to have. I’d love to take credit as a skill move and that I saw something. The truth is, his salary provided me the ability to have Barton in and I was only expecting 20 point tops from Looney.
10 Man Leagues
The 10 man leagues are still a good source of profit. To cash in 3rd place, the average has gone up to 300. To win it all, the scores are averaging 326. Both scores are attainable for a player like myself. I encourage you to at least try it out for 4-5 slates. As one reader pointed out, putting your lineups in closer to lock may be your best move with people scrambling to get into contests at the last second.
Let me know how your process is going. Leave me a comment below or hit me up on Twitter: JMcGrath330.