Tuesday 6/16 SP Stream of Consciousness!

So, I actually got busy with life on Monday and decided I would take a night off from the grind … which is a relief because … I have serious #DFS #FOMO sometimes. Of course … I guess if I wanted to look back at some of my thoughts (which I really shouldn’t) … Pittsburgh crushed … I remember seeing a Tristian H. Cockcroft video explaining some REALLY POOR reasons why he liked Carlos Rodon today as a great SP play in cash and GPP on both sites??? And I actually had to go back and look at him, and … literally all of Cockcroft’s arguments were based on like him not walking as many guys “the past three starts” … which is huge for him, sure … but c’mon … were we to believe he magically fixed himself based on 15 innings??

And I don’t even want to look at how well Liriano must have done based on that score … sigh …

Gallardo held LAD to one run though. So, swing and a miss there … pun intended …

Without further adieu …

My bird’s eye-view thoughts up front: I think I’m taking Garrett Richards today.

Who’s going to take Matt Harvey against TOR? I mean … listen I don’t think there’s one bit of anything wrong with Harvey. And he’s got a great chance of doing well here, but the simple fact is it’s not as much of a chance as normal given TOR, and, well … surely some people will be on him, but, yeah, …. I’m kind of scared, for now. There’s a great chance he’ll do well I just … don’t feel like playing with fire today.

Jake Arrieta in a similar situation … honestly vRHP CLE and TOR have very similarly-producing offenses, based both on 2015, and 2013-present for active roster players. SO. Same thing. I don’t feel like playing with fire and I think I will actually pass on him too and hope we find somebody with lesser but close-enough skills, and a better situation.

Garrett Richards is my boy. He projects well enough for me, is playing at home, and he’s playing Arizona … who are below average based on the stats I look at. The kicker here is we get an EXTREME pitcher-friendly ump, in a pitcher’s park, and Richards is our home town SP, so I think all of that adds up to enough in his favor to make me like him over the superior skills of Harvey and Arrieta. He’s really not too far behind those guys, he just doesn’t strike out as many, and he was racking BB’s to start the year, but, well, he’s not a control MASTER but his control is under control for the past several starts now I’d say. I’m feeling good about this.

Trevor Bauer can be mentioned for GPP because the cubs strike out a lot and … well Bauer is just a risk/reward guy, plain-and-simple.

Tanner Roark – okay he’s righthanded so this is even worth analyzing. LHPvTB is becoming a total non-starter for me as the season progresses and they keep beating them. So I wanted to say all of this seemed pretty vanilla until I saw that Roark’s salary was 5900? So to me that puts him squarely in play in GPPs, even though he doesn’t have strikeout upside … BUT … we need to look at the other side of this matchup because … it might be even better …

Alex Colome is 5800/6500 DK/FD and gives us a LOT more strikeout upside, and … well Harper is dangerous, but the rest of ‘em … well for GPP purposes they make a fine opponent. So I’ll favor Colome instead of Roark but I think both of them are way under-priced.

Jose Quintana is pretty solid, it hurts so bad that I missed out on PIT lighting up Rodon yesterday because of work. I don’t think Quintana, another LHP, provides the same opportunity for production from PIT, but I’m definitely not starting him against PIT. That offense has the potential to be one of the best in the league … everything I look at says they are due to be scoring a lot more runs and winning a lot more games here very soon. Or, maybe, starting yesterday.

Brett Anderson is almost perfect here … I think TEX offense has been over-hyped lately, they’re pretty average against LHP … but Anderson just doesn’t strike out enough, and guys like him and Roark only really belong in starting lineups on shorter slates, in general. He presents a strongly neg matchup for TEX bats though, I just can’t play him because of low strikeout upside …

David Phelps is pretty vanilla, not horrible … I feel like loading Yankees is kind of a trap in that park … unless nobody is going to take them just because of the park? Then maybe they’d have value. I cannot predict ownership I am terrible at it, so – I’ll leave that up to you guys.

Chris Tillman is stephen-a-smith horrrrrrrrrrrrible, trust me. But so is Philadelphia and well … gosh … just a puke-worthy matchup on both sides. My guess is they both do pretty bad and neither of them are worth taking for fantasy purposes. We do have a decently pitcher-friendly umpire here, too, so that tempers any excitement about trying to grab a Philly … … Tillman is so bad though, and his control is so horrible, that … I definitely still give Philly bats the edge. Maybe short of a contrarian stack though for GPP I don’t know if many of them will make my lineups.

Charlie Morton – extreme sinkerballer is a safe play, again not much upside, for his prices today I think he’s about right … fine to slot in as a SP2 if the money is just perfect, I think you’ll get about what you pay for, but not a lot of chance for a lot more than that. CHW very very safe opponent.

Matt Garza about as vanilla as it gets, playing high-contact KC, with a big strikezone ump. All sounds like about a wash and most of the hitters and Garza here seem like breakeven plays, and we hope to do better, obviously …

Nathan Eovaldi … for having such a great fastball, it seems like he’s settling into some firm mediocrity – I don’t see any indications of him becoming a strikeout pitcher anytime soon. He keeps the ball down and has good control … @MIA is what makes this tempting. They’re pretty bad, but I just wish Eovaldi was a little bit sexier … I feel like he’ll be popular enough that I’d rather go with Colome for GPP SP2.

Jeremy Hellickson is one i love to pick on, although he’s really just firmly bad not WORST PITCHER EVER status. But the same ump that makes Garrett Richards such a great idea is going to be enough to make me look elsewhere than LAA for bats.

This is an insanely bad day to be Michael Lorenzen, even worse than normal. @DET GL RIP!

So Chris Young is basically Nick Martinez all over again. Every time he comes up I have to make sure my spreadsheet isn’t broken beause his projection looks like what we would generate if the Yankees Outfielder Chris Young took the mound. He IS generating some above-average swings and misses … but just like with Martinez, we have an ERA over 2 runs lower than xERA, totally unsustainable. Tee off early, tee off often, and tee off on him until he gets hurt again and is out of the rotation, and thank me later. @MIL is the perfect storm for a guy that allows SIXTY PERCENT FLYBALLS and this is going back four, five years! Granted that’s only about one season’s worth of data when you put it all together because he’s constantly injured. I just don’t get it. How could any respectable GM or manager trot this guy out here? He’s an absolute joke. The one mitigating factor is that KC has an elite bullpen so … if MIL starts cranking on him they’ll have a very limited window to do damage in. But yeah. Sixty percent flyballs. That’s hard to do. And the stats i look at separate out line drives (they are not counted as flyballs) so we’re looking at approx 60% flyball, 20% linedrive, and 20% groundball pitcher. Barf.

So Copeland and Kyle Ryan are kind of similar at a glance – big, tall pitchers who don’t get a lot of strikeouts but get a lot of soft and/or groundball contact … they don’t look like total gascans to me, but I don’t see much upside in starting them even for small salaries.

Chi Chi Gonzalez is, well, I don’t really care – he’s playing LAD, it’s a bad situation, and you should not play him here. I think some people will because Chi Chi has barely allowed any runs in his THREE GAME SAMPLE! … he wasn’t pitching this well in the minors before they called him up, even, I don’t think. Anyway. LADvRHP4LYFE. I’m not scared. Hopefully others will be, and I shall profit. He’s a rookie, and he’s not that amazing. I hesitate to even take his short-sample success and mitigate it with OTHER short-sample examples – but – 96% strand rate, .200BABIP, and 4.72xERA … listen, if you’re going to oo and aah over his 3-game sample surface stats, then you have to consider the sub-metrics too. But I’m off him because of … HIS longer-term averages from the minors … and the fact that he’s about to face the best hitting team he’s ever faced in his life by a long shot. So. Have fun, Chi Chi! I see a “welcome to the big leagues” moment here and I always love picking on TEX pitchers because they don’t play defense and they don’t have a bullpen, so once the floodgates are open there’s not much chance of slowing the down.

Jerome Williams always worth playing batters against, and @BAL presents a pretty good opportunity.

Go forth and profit!

Good luck!

About the Author

  • Sean O'Donnell (hokie2009)

  • Sean O’Donnell is a proud Hokie (Virginia Tech class of 2009, electrical engineering) as well as a Grateful Dead enthusiast. A fantasy baseball player since age 12, he has flirted with DFS in the past, but only this season stumbled onto the dearth of information that exists pertaining to daily fantasy golf and made a commitment to analyzing PGA tournament data on a weekly basis. When he’s not scouring the web for obscure PGA data, he works as a consultant for small businesses involved in research grants with the federal government.

Comments

  • hokie2009

    To overview the umpires … we have a massive +10% K’s -15% or more BB’s!!!! and -10% R’s approx for the ARI/LAA game. MASSIVE.

    LAD/TEX definitely has a strongly small strikezone, so even more reason to REALLLY hope a bunch of people jump on Chi Chi today or even better stay off the dodgers, because this is a good spot to get an edge on the perceived value that Chi Chi has.

    The CHW/PIT umpire is hitter-friendly to the tune of 5% or more, but it’s only about a 150g sample, so, not putting much stock in this.

    My umpire spreadsheet is lighting up green for pitchers pretty much everywhere else, except for CLE/CHC which we have no info for because of the PPD yesterday. Now most of these are around 5% or less in favor of the pitcher, so don’t go crazy … the ones that I think are notable are … BAL/PHI and MIL/KC we have some of the metrics approaching 10% pitcher-friendly. So that puts a damper on some of the excitement surrounding some of the shitty pitchers and good parks we have there. But not enough to keep me off them, maybe just won’t be selling out as hard. MIL is especially tough given KC’s fantastic bullpen and now the bad umpire … but Young presenting such a RIDICULOUS hr opportunity … we’ll see. I’ll probably be relegated to my typical strategy of just playing Lind while Braun, Aramis, and CarGo2.0 all homer.

    Good luck, again!

  • hambazaza

    RG Blog Program Manager, 2014 RG Party Beer Pong Champion

    • Blogger of the Month

    • Beer Pong Champion

    very nice job!

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