Tuesday Night MACtion
Akron @ Kent State -25 O/U 59
Buffalo -30.5 @ Bowling Green O/U 58
Akron (17 Implied Team Total)
Zach Gibson ($5.1k DK) will presumably make his 3rd straight start as Kato Nelson works his way back from offseason shoulder surgery. Gibson has completed 18 passes in both games (30 attempts in both games). Through 2 games, he’s averaging 171.5 passing yards. The freshman has a TD pass in both of his starts (and 3 total INT). He’s tallied 11 rushing yards on 15 attempts. The matchup with rival, Kent State, is difficult. The Golden Flashes are limiting opposing passers to 173 passing yards per game. They’ve allowed 2 TD passes through 2 games (EMU/BGSU). The Akron offense is favoring the run (54.4/45.6 run-pass split) and averages 68 plays per game.
Bulldozing RB Teon Dollard ($5.6k DK) has received 16 and 22 carries through 2 games this season. He’s coming off a 165-yard rushing performance in Akron’s 24-10 loss to Ohio. Kent State has been solid against the run despite what it looks like on paper (allowing 160.5 rushing yards per game and surrendered 4 rush TDs). Kent State allowed a ton of yardage in last week’s blowout win over BGSU when Kent State had all their starters on the sideline. Dollard is playable on this 2-game slate despite the matchup because of the volume he’s receiving.
Target counts through 2 games: Nate Stewart (11), Tony Grimes Jr. (11), George Qualls Jr. (7), Michael Mathison (7 – 1 game), Shawn Naim (6), Teon Dollard (6), Jeremiah Knight (3), Maverick Wolfley (2), Marquise Whitmire (1), Timothy Scippio (2), and Julian Hicks (1).
The Zips leading WR from 2019, Nate Stewart ($4.6k DK), has drawn 5+ targets and caught 3+ balls in both games this season. Stewart leads the Zips with 8 receptions, 88 receiving yards, and 1 TD this season. QB Gibson is posting an impressive 126.3 passer rating when targeting Stewart. Michael Mathison ($4.4k DK), Akron’s other top WR, sat out last week’s loss. His status is unknown for this week. Mathison caught 6 balls for 44 yards and 1 TD in the season opener. Grimes Jr. ($3.7k DK) was targeted a game-high 8 times against Ohio. He came down with 6 passes for 60 yards. I believe he started for the injured Mathison so his viability rests on the status of Mathison this week. Qualls Jr. has 4 receptions for 78 yards (6 out of 7 targets came in last week’s game). Naim ($3k DK) has drawn 3 targets in each of the 1st two games. However, he only has 2 receptions for 9 yards to show for it. He benefitted from the absence of slot WR Julian Hicks ($3.4k DK). Hicks had 60 receptions, 525 yards receiving, and 6 TDs in his 1st 2 seasons at Akron. His status is also unknown for this week. I also wanted to mention Jeremiah Knight ($4k DK). He’s involved in both the passing and run games. He’s off to a slow start receiving this season (2/18/0 on 3 targets); he caught 32 balls for 433 yards in 2019. The senior is the Zips 2nd leading rusher this season with 96 rushing yards on 18 carries. He’s listed as WR on DK.
In 2020 (2 games), Akron is 25th in passing yards allowed with 194 yards/game. They are 96th in rushing yards allowed with 201.5 yards/game. The defense has given up 7 TDs on the ground (3.5 TD/game) and 3 TDs through the air (1.5 TD/game) this season.
Kent State (42 Implied Team Total)
Dustin Crum ($9.1k DK) is the best QB in the MAC. The dual threat QB is averaging 245 passing yards, 30 rushing yards, and 3.5 total TDs. He’s easily QB1 and will likely be close to 100% owned on Tuesday night. The matchup with Akron is phenomenal. The Zips are allowing 10.78 yards per pass attempt; they’ve allowed 3 pass TDs in 2 games. They’re also atrocious against the run (more on that below). The Kent State offense is favoring the run (61.9/38.1 run-pass split) and averages 84 plays per game.
Kent State operates a 3-man RBBC. Marquez Cooper ($6k DK) starts and posses the most upside amongst the bunch. The freshman has received 15 carries in each of the 1st 2 games. He’s run for 127 yards and 2 TDs this season (1/14/0 receiving). Williams ($3.8k DK) has 80 rushing yards and 1 TD but he’s only received 12 carries through 2 games (0/0/0 receiving). Bradford ($4.1k DK) is the big back; however, most of his playing time came once Kent State broke out to a huge lead. With that said, that could easily happen against Akron. Bradford has received carry counts of 12 and 13 through 2 games this season (185 rushing yards and 0/0/0 receiving). Akron has been buried by opposing ball carriers. Through 2 games, they’ve allowed a rushing TD to 6 different players. In total, they’re allowing 201.5 rushing yards per game (and 5.6 yards per carry which is the slate high). They’ve been stomped for 7 total rushing TDs this season. All 3 Kent State RBs are viable this week.
Target counts through 2 games: Isaiah McKoy (24), Ja’Shaun Poke (11), Dante Cephas (10), Isaac Vance (7), Isaiah Wooden (3 – 1 game), Keshunn Abram (2 – 1 game), Mark Williams (2), Javaughn Williams (2 – 1 game), Kris Leach (1), Marquez Cooper (1), Raymond James (1), and Luke Florea (1).
McKoy ($8.7k DK) is the MACs best WR. He’s drawn 10+ targets, caught 6+ balls, topped 70 receiving yards, and scored 1+ TD in each of the 1st two games. Like Crum, he’ll be nearly 100% owned on Tuesday night. Ja’Shaun Poke ($5.4k DK) pasted BGSU for 5/80/2 and had another TD called back for holding. The guy is a speedster from the slot. He posted 3/40/0 in the season opener. Cephas ($3.8k DK) has cleared 45 receiving yards in both games. He has 8 receptions for 102 yards this season. Vance ($3.7k DK), another slot WR, has 3+ receptions in both games. Williams ($3k DK), the TE, is a TD or bust play. The junior has 1 reception for 9 yards and 1 TD on 2 targets. Akron has struggled with perimeter WRs this season (Ohio’s Shane Hooks 4/73/0 which was a team high and 3/114/2 to WMU’s Dwayne Eskridge). That trend would benefit McKoy, Cephas, and Abram ($3.2k DK).
In 2020 (2 games), Kent State is 8th in passing yards allowed with 173 yards/game. They are 61st in rushing yards allowed with 160.5 yards/game. The defense has given up 4 TDs on the ground (2 TD/game) and 2 TDs through the air (1 TD/game) this season.
Buffalo (44.5 Implied Team Total)
Kyle Vantrease ($8.9k DK) roasted Miami-Ohio for 353 passing yards and 4 TDs on 27 pass attempts in last week’s win. He’s in a home run spot this week as the Bulls travel to Bowling Green. Bowling Green has allowed 9 passing TDs in only 2 games. Both Kent State and Toledo starting QBs tossed 4 TDs a piece. Vantrease offers leverage off the chalky Buffalo run defense. The Buffalo offense is favoring the run (64.2/35.8 run-pass split) and averages 61.5 plays per game.
The MACs best backfield meets the MACs worst run defense this week. Jaret Patterson ($9.3k DK) has resumed his work-horse role this season. The junior has received 20 carries and 2 TDs in each of the 1st 2 games. In total, the talented runner has 210 rushing yards and 4 TDs on 40 carries (0/0/0 receiving). You know he’s looking forward to Tuesday night after creaming BGSU for 298 rushing yards and 6 TDs on 26 carries in 2019. Kevin Marks ($4.4k DK) had a solid bounce back game in last week’s win over Miami-Ohio. The junior ran for 109 yards on 16 carries. Buffalo used both Patterson and Marks in a decent amount of 2 RB sets. Both guys are clearly good plays this week. Marks posted 14/107/1 against BGSU last season. Clearly, both guys can post big fantasy outings in the same game. BGSU has been annihilated by opposing backfields. The Falcons are allowing 302 rushing yards per game (and 5.5 yards per carry). They’ve been sliced up for 4 rushing TDs in 2 games.
Target counts through 2 games: Antonio Nunn (17), Zac Lefebvre (8), Dominic Johnson (5), Jovany Ruiz (5), Trevor Wilson (4), Bernard Porter (3), Jake Molinich (1), and Kevin Marks (1).
Nunn ($8.2k DK) has commanded 17 targets on 44 pass attempts this season. The senior has posted box scores of 6/102/1 and 5/137/1 in his 1st 2 games in 2020. He’ll look to take advantage of a BGSU defense that was dusted for 5/80/2 and 6/74/2 by Kent State speedsters Ja’Shaun Poke and Isaiah McKoy, respectively. Nunn’s backup, Trevor Wilson ($4.3k DK), posted 2/103/1 against Miami-Ohio in last week’s win. Ruiz ($3.9k DK) has started in the slot (like Kent’s Poke) in both games this season. He has 4 receptions, 42 receiving yards, and 1 TD. Johnson ($3.2k DK) and Porter ($3k DK) are the two primaries WRs that will line up on the perimeter opposite of Nunn. Johnson has come down with 2 out of 5 targets for 16 yards. Porter has 1 reception for 5 yards on 3 targets this season. Last but not least, TE Lefebvre ($4.5k DK) ranks 2nd on the team in targets, receptions (5), receiving yards (110), and TD receptions (1). Neither Toledo nor Kent State possess a solid receiving threat at TE such as Lefebvre, but I will note BGSU has not allowed a reception to a TE through 2 games. I wouldn’t put too much stock into that; Lefebvre plays a large role in the passing game.
In 2020 (2 games), Buffalo is 15th in passing yards allowed with 180 yards/game. They are 47th in rushing yards allowed with 147.5 yards/game. The defense has given up 3 TDs on the ground (1.5 TD/game) and 2 TDs through the air (1 TD/game) this season.
Bowling Green (14 Implied Team Total)
Matt McDonald ($4.8k DK) has completed…………14 out of 50 pass attempts. His horrible play doesn’t figure to improve as the Falcons welcome in the MACs top defense. The junior QB threw for 105 yards against Toledo in the season opener and 128 yards against Kent State last week. Buffalo held Miami QB Andrew Mayer to 116 passing yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT (completed 7/25 pass attempts). The BGSU offense favors the run (60/40) and averages 62.5 plays per game.
The BGSU backfield is dealing with injuries. Leading rusher from 2019, Andrew Clair ($5.3k DK) missed last week’s game due to an injury sustained in the season opener. Bryson Denley ($3.1k DK) started last week but only received 5 carries (15 rushing yards). Trevon Raymore ($3.3k DK) actually led the BGSU backfield with 14 carries in last week’s loss, but he had to leave the game early due to an injury. His status for this week’s game is unknown. So, let’s go through the scenarios. If Clair is back, he likely starts and leads the backfield in carries and Denley would likely mix in. If Clair is out, then Denley likely starts with Raymore also playing a lot. If Clair AND Raymore are out, then Denley likely starts with Terion Stewart ($6.5k DK) mixing in. Stewart posted 14/162/2 against Kent State last week. However, he racked up those numbers in garbage time with Kent State resting their starters. Perhaps, he earned more playing time this week, but his price tag is definitely way too high on DK. Buffalo is holding opposing runners to 3.78 yards per carry which leads the slate. They’ve yielded 3 rushing TDs through 2 games.
Target counts through 2 games: Quentin Morris (13), Julian Ortega-Jones (11), Tyrone Broden (11), Noah Massey (5), Presley Motes (5), Bryson Denley (2), and Christian Sims (1).
Morris ($3.9k DK), the TE, has 4 receptions for 37 yards through 2 games. He was the leading pass catcher in 2019 (54/639/4). Ortega-Jones ($4.2k DK) is option #2 in the passing game. He has 4 receptions for 66 yards. Broden ($3.5k DK) is a big-bodied WR and he’s cleared 25 receiving yards in both games. Lastly, the junior Massey ($3.2k DK) checks in with 3 receptions for 66 yards. Broden starts at the X-receiver spot while Ortega-Jones mans the Y-receiver spot. Massey is the starting slot WR.
In 2020 (2 games), BGSU is 113th in passing yards allowed with 293 yards/game. They are 124th in rushing yards allowed with 302.5 yards/game. The defense has given up 4 TDs on the ground (2 TD/game) and 9 TDs through the air (4.5 TD/game) this season.