UCL: Week 5 Preview - Wednesday (DK)
Two more weeks to go until the knockout round is here. This week will allow most teams to clinch a berth in the next round while some others will see their hopes vanish. Some will still have the chance at a Europa League spot (third place group finish) while others will just be out of the running for anything. It is also important to note that we have two early games which will not be on the main slate making it more condensed than other times.
Yesterday’s first half was one of the worst, for those that went contrarian I’m sure you were pleased. Luckily, however, the second half balanced things out and saved many of our days. Let’s see what Wednesday now has in store for us!
Wednesday slate – Nov 22, 2017 – (6 games)
Note: previous meetings consider last relevant home vs. away fixture.
Manchester United @ Basel
A win for United means they qualify for the next round. A win here also means that they clinch first place in the group and can relax on Matchday 6.
Interesting Fact: Man Utd have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 matches (UEFA Champions League).
Match Analysis: United beat Basel convincingly in their first match 3-0. I don’t expect the same convincing scoreline but a win should be in the books. However, Basel will put up a fight especially in front of their home crowd in their final group match at home. Lukaku will probably be one of the more low-owned big name strikers on the slate due to their being better options so he’s strictly a GPP choice. Rashford has been taking some set-pieces as of late and if Mata is on the bench, he may continue to do so, though Blind may take some as well. De Gea is in an interesting spot knowing that he will get some saves and a clean sheet is always probable for him. Fellaini may get a start in the mid and he is worth considering for a punt play as a salary saver. The one Basel player that has threatened each game is Elyounoussi if you really want to consider a Basel player.
Cash – N/A
GPP – Lukaku $9200, Rashford $7900, Fellaini $3500, De Gea $5200 / Elyounoussi $5200
Benfica @ CSKA
Not on main slate.
Cash – GPP –
Bayern @ Anderlecht
Bayern and PSG have already progressed from this group. Now it is a matter of fighting for first place. A win here will allow Bayern to battle for first place against PSG in the final matchday (unless of course if PSG manages to win against Celtic)!
Interesting Fact: Bayern Munich coach Jupp Heynckes has helped the team rediscover its strength and domination, with the team winning their last 8 competitive matches (all competitions).
Match Analysis: Coaching changes often bring a positive reaction and for Bayern, this is quite true. Every since Heynckes took charge, they have yet to lose. I expect Bayern to come out in full force here and a drubbing is in the books. Good idea to stack Bayern here as Anderlecht has already conceded 15 goals in four matches – to make matters worse, they have not scored yet. Lewandowski becomes your top option behind Neymar and perhaps even with Cavani, he has been on a tear lately for Bayern. Robben is always a threat while Coman is more like a poor man’s Robben. Kimmich has seen his price skyrocket after he’s been taking every corner for Bayern, at $7600 it’s a huge risk to pay for a defender but we’ve seen him notch double digits points consecutively including a 30 point performance in his first match against Anderlecht. You can also never go wrong with the centre back for Bayern which looks to be Hummels and Martinez/Boateng on Wednesday – they can save you some salary and hopefully get you the clean sheet bonus. As noted, Bayern is a powerhouse so you will probably need some exposure to them. Perhaps take Ulreich as your keeper as Anderlecht have failed to score. For the opposition, the only interesting play looks to be Trebel at his low price tag.
Cash – Kimmich $7600, Robben $8800, Lewandowski $10,500, Ulreich $5800
GPP – Coman $6700, Hummels $3700, Martinez $3800/Boateng $3500, Alcantara $7300 / Trebel $3700
Celtic @ PSG
PSG can only give Bayern hope of a first place finish if they don’t get the win. That is highly unlikely as PSG should demolish this Celtic squad at home.
Interesting Fact: No team have scored more goals or conceded fewer in the UCL than PSG who have amassed a goal difference of +17 (17-0) from 4 games (43-9 from 13 in Ligue 1).
Match Analysis: You can stack Bayern, or you can try to find a way to stack PSG. Both teams have high scoring totals. Neymar is a huge price to pay but usually worth it. It is basically like yesterday where you had to decide whether or not to fade Ronaldo. Clearly, Celtic is not like APOEL but they are not in the best position to succeed. PSG is a monster team now and they are expected to demolish Celtic. For that reason, other options open up like Cavani (who has 4 goals in his last two) and Mbappe. Areola is one of the top safe GK’s of the slate. And you can bank on the two PSG wing-backs to have good games as well. The prices are what is not in anyone’s favour. Bankroll management will be huge in today’s slate. I’m off Celtic as you may imagine.
Cash – Neymar $12,300, Cavani $10,200, Areola $6000, Alves $6600
GPP – Mbappe $9700, Kurzawa $6200
Chelsea @ Qarabag
Not on main slate.
Cash – GPP –
Roma @ Atletico Madrid
Atletico have yet to win in this year’s UCL competition. That is shocking, add to the fact that they have only scored two goals, I do not like their chances here. But the only way to keep their hopes alive is with a win and a bunch of goals.
Interesting Fact: In total, Atletico have fired 26 shots on goal, while allowing only 9. And still their goal difference is 2-3!
Match Analysis: No matter what, Atletico needs a win here no if’s, and’s, or but’s. However, the win needs to come by a large margin which is not in their favour. They have struggled to score and I believe they will continue to struggle here against an Italian side known to defend well. It is hard for me to consider anyone from this game especially from Atletico’s side. There will be one game in which they will break out but I’m not sold that it’s in this one. Allison may be in for a day worth of saves and knowing Atletico is struggling in front of net, he becomes a GPP consideration. Perotti becomes a low priced striker who is in form as of late but you need to consider that Atletico is usually a soundly defensive team. Nainggolan is the other player worth a small consideration as he is usually more attacking in nature, he comes at a reasonable price but again not the best match-up. Kolarov is the only defender in this game that I would take. Feel free to take the Atletico players seeing how they need the win but I can’t trust them.
Cash – Kolarov $6100
GPP – Allison $4300, Perotti $6400, Nainggolan $5000
Barcelona @ Juventus
The heavy weight match of the slate. A win here for either side does a lot. A Barca win means they secure first place in the group and allows Sporting a chance to take over second place. A win for Juve means first place in the group will only be decided on the final matchday.
Interesting Fact: Barcelona are unbeaten in all competitions this season and have only failed to win on two occasions.
Match Analysis: Both teams have a reason to play for the win here. Juve rested many players over the weekend in order to be prepared for this big game. I don’t see this game breaking out to be a goal fest, perhaps by slim margins instead. You can easily fade Messi in this slate, but knowing that he may be a bit under owned than usual so if you want to take a chance, consider him but there are definitely better spots to target. His Argentine counterpart, Dybala, is always worth considering as well. Outside of the main players, Suarez and Higuain become very much secondary picks that I will fade but they will be lowly owned.
Cash – Messi $11,100
GPP – Dybala $8400
Olympiakos @ Sporting
Sporting has only one objective here and that is to win! On home soil, they should do exactly that but it won’t be as easy as their first match.
Interesting Fact: Sporting are much less prolific on home soil. They have scored 15 goals in their last 11 home games, in contrast to their record of 25 goals in their last 9 away games. Olympiakos have lost 4 of their last 6 away from home, conceding on average 2 goals per game in this time.
Match Analysis: Sporting may provide a bit of value on this slate seeing how they are home favourites. Olympiakos though is no stranger to making life difficult for their opposition so this shall be an interesting tilt. Patricio has put up respectable numbers in this year’s UCL, therefore he is worth a GPP look. He will need to be on his toes to give Sporting a chance to win here. With Doumbia out, Dost is bound to lead the line on Wednesday and will probably play 90 minutes as Sporting has no other suitable striker. He is very goal dependent though so buyer beware. With Acuna out due to injury, either Fernandes or Cesar will oversee set-piece duties. The former has more influence in the attack however. In terms of Olympiakos, Fortounis is their best player and comes at a reduced price, worth a look. Carcela is a speedy winger that can cause havoc and comes at a cheap price as well while Figueiras may play a bit more advanced and may be worth a look in the DEF position at a bargain price. There looks to be value in this game.
Cash – N/A
GPP – Patricio $5600, Fernandes $6200, Dost $6900 / Fortounis $4900, Carcela $4500, Figueiras $3800
Good luck footy fans!
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